New Trevor Lawrence deal proves Geno Smith is a steal for Seahawks

The Jacksonville Jaguars are massively overpaying for Lawrence compared to what Seattle is getting with Smith.
Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks / Steph Chambers/GettyImages

Jacksonville Jaguars fans appear to like quarterback Trevor Lawrence quite a bit. He became the quarterback when the team was not very good, and he was seen as the kind of player who would elevate the Jaguars to being a perennial playoff contender. One out of Lawrence's three seasons, that has come true.

There are quite a few similarities over the last two seasons between Lawrence and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. One thing the two QBs do not have in common is the adoration from their team's fanbase. There are a lot of 12s who like Smith, but there are a lot of 12s who think Smith is a terrible quarterback. Their eyes appear to deceive them.

The Jaguars recently signed Lawrence to an extension that will pay him $275 million over five seasons. He also got a no-trade clause. In 2029, Lawrence's cap hit will be $78.5 million. In 2030, his cap hit will be $74.841 million. Should Jacksonville find they overpaid for the quarterback and want to move on from him, his dead cap in 2026 is $66 million. That is a lot of money.

Trevor Lawrence will be making more money than Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will ever earn

Smith, meanwhile, is signed through 2025 and his cap hit next season is $38.5 million, but the team could save $25 million by releasing him. This year, Smith's cap hit is $26.4 million. While Smith has a bigger cap hit than Lawrence in the next two years, Jacksonville is tied to Lawrence for a lot longer and for much more cash.

The issue is that Lawrence's statistics are no better than Smith's over the last two seasons. To be more clear, Lawrence's numbers are worse in most cases than Smith's.

Throwing out Lawrence's 2021 season (because bringing those numbers in only hurts Lawrence; he was a rookie in 2021 and led the league in interceptions with 17), the Jaguars quarterback has thrown 46 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions. His record as Jacksonville's starting quarterback is 17-16. He did play two playoff games in 2022, but in those games, he threw five touchdown passes but also five interceptions.

His interception percentage in the last two seasons is 1.9. Lawrence's touchdown percentage is 4.0 percent. His quarterback rating is 92.4.

Next. Seahawks urged to go all-in for this QB in 2025. Seahawks urged to go all-in for this QB in 2025. dark

Smith's same numbers since he became the full-time starter for the Seahawks in 2022 are better. He has thrown 50 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. His quarterback rating is 96.7. Smith's touchdown percentage is 4.7 and his interception rate matches Lawrence's. The Seahawks are 17-15 in games Smith has started the last two years.

None of this is to say that Trevor Lawrence is a bad quarterback and Geno Smith is a great one. Both are good. The issue is one gets more respect than the other, and the one with the better numbers is not the one who gets the most appreciation.

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