In the modern NFL, it really does feel like a QB league. If you get a star quarterback, a player that almost singlehandedly raises the standard of your franchise, you have hope and belief you have a shot every year. Ask the fans in Kansas City how they feel knowing they expect to be in the championship hunt every year.
If you don't have a franchise quarterback, then your ceiling will always be limited. While there are the occasional outliers (usually aided by historic defenses), you're either terrible and hoping for a high pick to save your team, or are stuck in no man's land where a wild card victory is typically your ceiling.
Ask the fans in New England how they feel now, in the post-Tom Brady era. The drop from a dynasty to an afterthought is staggering for fans who watched Foxboro be the standard of excellence for 20 years. Things are great when you have a great one, but not even the greatest coach of all time can be saved when you don’t have one. I mean, the Patriots are already on their second first-round rookie QB in four seasons.
Can Geno Smith be the long-term quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks?
I bring up Kansas City and New England because the Seattle Seahawks are in a very unique spot compared to those two opposite ends of the spectrum. After trading away the face of the franchise two years ago, the Seahawks have put their faith in journeyman Smith, and have been rewarded with a playoff appearance and back-to-back nine-win seasons.
While many teams would’ve looked towards the future already, Seattle has stuck with Smith. With a new leadership regime in place, the question that will likely dominate the 2024 season is whether John Schneider and Mike Macdonald believe they have found their franchise QB in Geno Smith.
Making the case for Geno Smith
While Geno Smith did not have as strong of a season in 2023 as he did in 2022, there is still so much to like. Smith finished 2023 playing in 15 games, throwing for 3,624 yards (64.7 completion percentage), with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Considering the health, or lack thereof, of the offensive line, Smith’s toughness and performance in overcoming those circumstances should be commended.
While sometimes the generic stats don’t tell the whole story, there are some deep stats that show Smith is closer to being a championship-caliber QB than most people think. When it came to big-time throw rates, Geno Smith ranked second in the NFL at six percent and his Turnover-Worthy Play Rates ranked Smith 29th in the league at just 3.6 percent.
Why are these numbers important? Well, that’s because Geno Smith was better in both of these areas than former top overall pick Trevor Lawrence. This is the same Lawrence that just signed a five-year, $275 million extension with more than half of that money being fully guaranteed at signing. Smith is currently slated to have a $26.4 million cap hit in 2024. You can make a strong argument that as a stable starting quarterback, Smith has arguably the best value contract in the league for a player not on a rookie deal.
According to Jarrett Bailey of Sporting News, Smith was the only quarterback “with at least 15 attempts 25-plus yards downfield in 2023, Smith was the only one that had a catchable pass percentage of 80 percent or higher.”
Many of those types of throws came in the form of play-action passes, the one area where I did think Shane Waldron was slightly more creative than the plain chicken nuggets and crackers I give my toddler almost every day for lunch. In 2023, Smith was second in the NFL in completion rate at nearly 74 percent and eighth in passer rating at 111.6.
When you consider the guru of play-action dominance at the collegiate level is now running the Seahawks offense, the potential match between Geno and Ryan Grubb could be perfect. I wrote in February why I was high on the Grubb hire, as his 30.7 percent play-action rate that dominated college football, would have been the highest rate in the NFL this season. If he can truly bring this style of play to the Seahawks then Smith could be in for his biggest year yet.
Making the case against Geno Smith
When looking for a franchise quarterback, I am looking for someone who can elevate the team and the franchise. Someone who can carry a team through injuries, or get the job done on the road in a hostile playoff environment. Smith took a beating last year, and fairly or unfairly, it did affect his total production. His completion percentage dropped by 5.1 percent from the previous year. His yards per game and passer rating dropped by nearly 10 points each.
While Smith has proven to be a master in the play-action game, the rest of his game leaves me wanting more. His mobility which was beautifully on display in 2022 seemed nonexistent last year. His inability to be a threat in the intermediate passing range hurt this offense tremendously.
When the injuries affected the o-line, and the running game went stale, Smith and the offense looked like one of the worst in the NFL, essentially chucking it deep on 3rd and long constantly, or praying Kenneth Walker could break a big run once or twice a game. Injuries or not, that is simply not sustainable.
Quarterbacks are almost always judged by how they perform when it matters most, and that was an area in 2023 where Smith was arguably the best in the league. Despite the struggles on offense last year, Smith produced four fourth quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives, both best in the NFL.
While this is fantastic, this became a necessity due to the struggles of Smith and the offense in the second and third quarters. Seattle was one of the best offenses in football in the first and fourth quarters, but one of the worst in the middle.
Was this because of injuries, Shane Waldron, Smith, or Pete Carroll’s style? Honestly, I think it is a mix of all the above. All of the excuses are gone, except for Smith. A new system, a new OC, and the likelihood of better health should provide us the clarity to see if Smith can be a consistent playmaker for a full 60 minutes.
Verdict
Let’s be clear, Geno Smith has proven that he is a legitimate starting NFL quarterback. His transformation over the past few years has been incredible and inspirational. I am excited to watch Smith play QB for the Seahawks this season, especially in a new scheme.
The question isn’t about whether we like Smith though, it’s whether he’s a franchise quarterback. When I say franchise quarterback, I’m talking about a tier that includes the likes of Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. It’s not fair to compare Smith to those guys, but I would argue that any strong franchise should be scratching and clawing until they find someone who is remotely close to what those two provide.
Smith’s contract is absolutely incredible for this team. He makes up just 10 percent of the team’s cap and there’s an opportunity to get out of his contract next year with just a $13.5 million cap hit. If he’s brought back, he’ll be making nearly $40 million in 2025. If he excels with Macdonald and Grubb, that could look like a steal again but could be an unrealistic number if Schneider and company feel they need more from the position after 2024.
I think that number, and the likelihood that this year has a realistic ceiling of a wild card team that could potentially win a playoff game, is enough for leadership to continue to evaluate, without committing. There’s a reason why Schneider gave up draft capital to get Sam Howell from Washington.
There are potential free agents that could become very attractive to Seattle if Smith slipped, and next year’s draft class has some big-time names and a few interesting players that will undoubtedly rise up through the fall.
If this team was terrible or great, there would be more pressure to make a decision on Smith’s future right now. That is simply not the case though, as Schneider and Macdonald are likely on a path to trying to put a Super Bowl-caliber roster together by 2026. In the meantime, they can continue to evaluate Smith, while also seeing if their belief in Sam Howell proves fruitful, or if a Josh Allen type of prospect catches the eye of Schneider.
Can Smith become the franchise quarterback for the Seahawks through the 2020s? Yes. Will Geno Smith be the franchise quarterback for the Seahawks through the 2020s? No.