A bit of positivity to start with: The Seattle Seahawks could still make the playoffs in 2023. So many NFC teams are 6-7 that there will be a mad rush to make the postseason. While the Los Angeles Rams have the tie-break over Seattle, as long as Los Angeles finishes with one more loss then the tie-break doesn't matter.
Even if Seattle falls to 6-8 with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 15, Seattle will still have a chance. While Geno Smith has not been perfect by any stretch of the imagination this year, he proved in 2022 that with the team fighting to make the postseason, he can lead the Seahawks to victories. Anything is possible in the NFL.
But what about next season? Should Seattle run Smith back out onto the field as QB1? Here are some pros and cons of that potential situation.
Pro No. 1 - Geno Smith would be helpful for QB taken in 2024 NFL draft
The Seattle Seahawks roster is not devoid of talent. Hopefully, some of the 2023 rookies will improve in year two much the same way that Boye Mafe got better (at least for a lot of this season). Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gotten better as the season has moved along and he could be set for a huge 2024. I say this to express that the Seahawks shouldn't completely devolve next year but should be better than 2023 and one thing that could hold them back from any improvement would be starting a rookie at quarterback in Week 1.
Geno Smith proved in 2022 that even in a quarterback battle in training camp with Drew Lock Smith was willing to help even his potential competition (and possible replacement) learn the playbook and scheme. Say what you will about Smith on the field, but he is a good teammate. A rookie quarterback could do worse than to be joining a team with an established starter such as Geno Smith on the roster.
The rookie then could be slowly weaned and get some snaps here or there, and if good enough, could replace Smith during the season. Plus, Smith is at least a serviceable starter with a contract that makes more sense to release him after 2024 than 2023. The cap saving by releasing Smith this coming offseason would be $13.8 million with a $17.4 million dead cap. After the 2024 season, Smith could be released and the Seahawks would save $25 million and Smith's dead cap would be only $8.7 million.
Con No. 1 - Geno Smith has digressed some in 2023; Why would 2024 be better?
Drew Lock played OK in Week 15 against the San Francisco 49ers, his first start since being traded to the Seahawks before the 2022 season. He was far from perfect - throwing into triple-coverage and being intercepted was probably not the wisest of ideas, for instance - but he was fairly comparable to what Smith has done for most of the year. Smith, however, has had better games than what Lock had in Week 15. Geno Smith was fantastic against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14, for example.
But in comparing Smith to himself and his 2022 season, many of his important numbers aren't as good in 2023. His completion percentage is down five points (69.8 to 64.4), his interception percentage is up (1.9 last year and 2.2 this season), his touchdown percentage is way down (5.2 to 3.7), and has thrown 2 fewer interceptions (9 versus 11 in 2022) even though he has passed 170 fewer times.
This has happened even though he is being sacked less by percentage (7.4 to 6.3) so in theory, he has more plays in which to get rid of the ball. The Seahawks are also 19th in points per game (21.5) but were ninth in 2022 (23.9). Smith is leading a far less efficient offense this year.
So since Geno Smith is clearly worse statistically in 2023 than in 2022, when he should have improved since he is now in his second season as the full-time QB1, why should we expect him to be better in 2024? Maybe any change of quarterback could be an improvement. A rookie quarterback might make a lot of mistakes at first, but at least there should be the potential for gradual improvement as the season wears on.
Pro No. 2 - Maybe Geno Smith isn't the main issue
In the last slide, I brought up sack percentage. Admittedly, I did that misleadingly. While the statistic is accurate, number of sacks allowed does not tell the whole story. Geno Smith has been hurried the second-most times in the NFL (48) and his pocket time before passing ranks 25th (2.4 seconds) among quarterbacks with 126 passes or more. Smith simply hasn't had great protection this year. In 2022, he was hurried 12 fewer times but, again, in 170 fewer pass attempts.
The banged-up offensive line has just affected Geno Smith, either. Last year, running back Kenneth Walker III had five games where he rushed for 107 yards or more and he had an average carry of 4.6. This year his average carry is 4.0 and he has only one game where has rushed over 100 yards but he has four games where he has run for 43 yards or less.
Maybe with more time in 2024 - hopefully - Geno Smith can get back to his 2022 level where he led the NFC in touchdown passes (30) and led the league in completion percentage. No, Smith was not perfect last year either, but he was good enough to make the Pro Bowl, help lead the team to the playoffs, and with the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
So before I can totally complain about Smith's play or offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's play-calling, maybe the offensive line should be fixed. Some of that problem might also be the coaching the unit is receiving. Of course, that has nothing to do with Geno Smith.