The Seattle Seahawks will travel to play a good Cowboys team in Dallas in Week 13. Dallas has not lost at home in 2023. Hopefully, the game won't be as ugly for Seattle as Week 12 was.
Dallas' point differential is +160. Seattle's is -20. Still, as of this writing, Seattle still holds the last playoff spot in the NFC.
There is a lot of football left, sure. But maybe that is a positive for the Seahawks as well. After the next three games, the schedule does begin to ease a little. Here are four things I think could happen in Week 13.
Seattle Seahawks get one key player back but will lose another
I am going to assume that the Seahawks will welcome back right tackle Abraham Lucas this week. The issue is that the Cowboys pass rush is fearsome so Lucas will be going from 0-60 in a matter of seconds in his first game since Week 1. Lucas is an excellent player who will hopefully be a long-term starter at RT (assuming his knee injury that Pete Carroll labeled as "chronic" isn't so chronic). But he might not look great against the Cowboys.
There is no shame in that, though. Dallas makes a lot of good offensive lineman look bad. Not only does Dallas have players such as Micah Parsons, but they are exceptionally well-schemed by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. The interior of Seattle's offensive line has been fairly porous this year, but in Week 13 maybe none of Seattle's offensive linemen will be adequate.
And I never want anyone to get hurt ever on either team. Players are human beings, too, of course, so wishing harm on a player seems wrong. But because Seattle's season is trending downward as it is, and the defense was definitely affected by losing edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu in Week 7 it would just be the Seahawks luck to suffer an injury to someone on offense as well, such as one of the receivers.
Geno Smith gets replaced by Drew Lock but not because of ineffectiveness
Geno Smith is going to take a beating in Week 13. Seattle has issues protecting the quarterback no matter who they play it seems, but the Cowboys are a different beast altogether. Dallas is fourth in sacks (37), 10th in quarterback hits (68), and third in sack percentage (10.2). Plus, because Dallas is only 21st in quarterback knockdown percentage, they basically take every advantage of sacking the quarterback when they get close.
The Cowboys also have the fifth-best quarterback rating allowed (77.7) in the NFL this year. Seattle's struggling pass offense doesn't appear to have a good chance of getting better against Dallas this week. And I do not think it will with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock. But Smith suffered a biceps injury in Week 11 and he is still dealing with soreness from that.
I don't think Smith plays all that poorly against Dallas; He just won't have much time to throw and won't have open receivers to throw the ball to. He will likely get banged around so much that by the third quarter when the Cowboys have a fairly comfortable lead causing Seattle to want to throw even more, the Seahawks eventually just take Smith out because he is being roughed up so much.
Drew Lock will come into the game midway through the third quarter and over the next quarter-and-a-half will throw two interceptions and lead Seattle to a field goal when they start on a short field to begin with. Lock will get sacked twice and not complete half his passes.
Seattle rookie Derick Hall gets 3 sacks
Now for some good news. Derick Hall has not yet done much in terms of pass rush but he is only a rookie and many times, just like Boye Mafe last season, a rookie has trouble acclimating to the NFL. Hall has 4 quarterback hits in 2023, but all 4 came between Weeks 2 and 4. Since then he has not laid a finger on a quarterback. He also has just one tackle for loss this year, so he is struggling with productivity a great deal.
But for no reason whatsoever, I think Hall has a breakout game against Dallas. Maybe Dallas will be focusing on long-time nemesis Leonard Williams or Mafe, but Hall will see a lot of one-on-one blocking and get home on Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott three times. He will have 5 quarterback hits in total. Plus, he will have a tackle for loss because, well...why not?
The Cowboys take care of business at home
Dallas is ridiculously good at home right now. In 2023, they have not lost at whatever the Cowboys are calling their home stadium nowadays and these are the scores by which Dallas has won its five home games: 30-10, 38-3, 43-20, 49-17, and 45-10. In other words, the Cowboys have won each home game by three touchdowns (but in one they would have missed an extra point).
There is no logical reason to think the Seahawks will win on Thursday. Seattle's offense is not good and the defense still struggles getting opponents off the field. Plus, Dallas has won each of its last three games by at least 23 points. Week 13 might be as ugly as Week 12 for Seattle and I think the Seahawks lose 34-10.