No. 3: Seahawks lose Bobby Wagner and Jason Myers to injuries
Seattle has been extraordinarily lucky with health when it comes to quarterbacks over the last 10-plus years. Rarely did former QB Russell Wilson miss a game and Geno Smith didn't miss a game in 2022. While injuries are happening all around the Seattle roster, the QBs have been solid. And let's assume that happens in 2023, too.
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Seattle might be worse off if Bobby Wagner or Jason Myers gets hurt. The Seahawks are extremely thin at inside linebacker, for instance. Heck, even if Bobby Wagner does stay healthy and is pretty good there is no guarantee that any other inside linebacker is any good, including 2023 offseason signee, Devin Bush. But let's even assume Bush is OK but Wagner is hurt. If Wagner gets hurt and isn't next to Bush, who takes Wagner's spot? The likelihood that whoever replaces Wagner is productive is slim. And in no dream world is a person currently on the Seattle roster anywhere close to the talent Wagner is.
Seattle also plays a lot of close games. Even in the glory years of the mid-2010s the Seahawks played a ton of close games. Head coach Pete Carroll envisions a world where his defense is great, his running game is fantastic, and his quarterback doesn't turn the ball over. Even if those things work out perfectly in the NFL, a team's kicker becomes incredibly important.
Myers made the Pro Bowl in 2022, but he has also made 87.5 percent of his field goal attempts since joining Seattle in 2019. He also has a career-long field goal made of 61 yards while wearing a Seahawks uniform. He can be counted on not to miss. But as Seattle plays a bunch of close games and as Myers is money on making field goals, if he were hurt and a lesser kicker took his spot then Seattle might lose a lot of close games and miss the playoffs. Heck, they might even finish with a losing record.