A not overly optimistic yet joyful prediction for the Seahawks 2023 record

The Seahawks 11-6 record should come as no surprise

In quick and dirty terms, the Pythagorean formula compares a team's points scored to their points allowed. It provides a reasonably good estimate of wins and losses, based on that differential. Bill James is the first I know of to come up with the stat. As far as I know, he created it, but just in case someone finds an example from 1937, I don't wanna get sued. James applied it to baseball, but it's since been applied to other sports. For those who want to look under the hood, Stanley Rothman wrote this in-depth examination of the tool for the Society for Baseball Research.

Okay, enough math. The point is, the scores I quite wildly projected for the Seahawks actually match my projected record phenomenally well. Too well, in fact, as teams routinely over-perform or under-perform their projections. Overall, the projections are quite accurate. The real issue here isn't the math, it's if the Hawks can actually do this. I find it hard to believe that with all the improvements this team has made that they won't improve on their record by two wins as well.

Smith has another year under his belt, and the Hawks trust him to run every play in the book. Walker will have a full season in the backfield, with a better stable of supporting players. Lockett and Metcalf can't be doubled anymore with the arrivals of Smith-Njigba and yes, Bobo. The pass rush will get a huge boost from Jones, Mafe, et al. The secondary is improved as well with Witherspoon in the lineup, and the eventual return of Adams. Oh, and there's this guy named Wagner; he's pretty good. So how does this team not improve by at least two games?

I realize some 12s would be disappointed with 11 wins, while others, the more pragmatic type, would be well pleased. I don't see the Hawks taking the NFC West from the Niners this year, but I do see them making more than a little noise in the playoffs. This is a very young team, after all. By the postseason, they'll likely have first or second-year starters at no fewer than eight positions or nine positions. There's no need to say wait till next year with this edtion of the Seahawks.

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