A couple of weeks ago, Athlon Sports put out their 2023 NFL preview. In somewhat of a stunner, they have predicted that the Seattle Seahawks will win the NFC Championship, before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
Athlon predicted that Pete Carroll will be the NFL Coach of the Year. The magazine also said Seattle will get the number 2 seed in the conference. In the postseason, the Seahawks will get home playoff wins over Detroit and San Francisco, before stunning the Eagles in Philadelphia to get to the franchise's fourth Super Bowl.
While this is just about as close to a fairytale season as any Hawks fan could hope for, it gives volume to a growing sound that the Seahawks could make some real noise this season. If the Seahawks were going to have a "super" season, what would that look like, and what is the roadmap to Las Vegas in February? Unfortunately, we may have to look to our Southern California rivals for historical comparisons to glory.
Acknowledging the greatness of a Seahawks rival
While this part is a bit painful to talk about, there are some very strong similarities to what the Seahawks are building and the best the Rams franchise has put on the field.
The first comparison I want to look at is the 2018 LA Rams:
13-3 NFC champs
32.9 ppg (number 2 in NFL)
24.0 opponents ppg (20th in NFL)
DVOA- 2nd offense, 19th defense, 17th special teams
Goff - 364/561 64.9%, 4688 yards, 32/12 TD:INT ratio (37/9 ratio before Kupp ACL)
Robert Woods - 86 rec, 1,219 yards (14.2 y/r), 6 TDs
Brandon Cooks - 80 rec, 1,204 yards (15.1y/r), 5 TD's
Cooper Kupp - (8 games played) 40 rec, 566 yards (14.2 Y/R), 6 TDs
Todd Gurley - (14 games) 256 attempts, 1,251 yards, 17 TDs, 59 rec, 580 yards, 4 TDs.
The 2018 Rams were arguably the best team in the Sean McVay era, despite coming up embarrassingly short in Super Bowl LIII. With stars in their prime such as Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley and Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks, the team was loaded with starpower for young Jared Goff to guide.
With a young passing game coordinator by the name of Shane Waldron working magic with Sean McVay, the Rams were the best offense in football not named Kansas City. The Rams looked unstoppable before a Cooper Kupp torn ACL severely hindered the offense. Their scoring dropped by nearly a touchdown per game the rest of the way, which ultimately came back to haunt them in their 13-3 Super Bowl defeat.
Seahawks OC Shane Waldron's time to shine
Speaking of comparing the Rams to the Seahawks, let's talk a little more about Shane Waldron. While he may not look or talk the part of an NFL head coach, he's been fantastic for Seattle and will be a hot head coaching candidate after this season.
Did you know that Waldron had Seattle ranked seventh in total points scored on the first drive of either half? Much like the previous disciples of the Mike Shanahan (Bill Walsh) tree, Waldron is strong at getting his team off to hot starts to each half.
In 2021, taking over a Seahawks team that was in an awkward situation post the "Let Russ Cook" 2020 debacle, Shane took a tough situation and appeared to have Russ in a solid place. The Seahawks averaged 25.75 ppg in Russ's four healthy games, going 2-2. Unfortunately, the defense gave up 25 ppg on defense, which would've been 25th in the NFL.
With a new QB in Geno Smith, and two rookie tackles, expectations were low for 2022. While it was an uneven start, Waldron figured out what he had and got the Seahawks on a serious offensive role midway through the season. The Seahawks averaged 31.1 ppg during the nine-game hot streak. This would have been 2 ppg better than the Chiefs averaged as the league's best offense and would have been the best in football since the 2020 Packers, who greatly benefited from no fans.
The Seahawks finished the season 9th in scoring offense, even with injuries and clear disadvantages. Shane has proven to be elite when he has just decent to good talent.
After a successful offseason, Waldron has some major upgrades at his disposal. The drafting of Jaxon Smith-Njigba gives Seattle arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the NFC and a striking resemblance to what he had in 2018 for Los Angeles. Waldron has 3 TEs who all had moments in 2022, and are each in a make-or-break contract year. He had two young talented backs with the addition of Zach Charbonnet. Along with Kenneth Walker, both backs can do a lot of versatile things and should have some clear lanes with an O-line that should be better with the development of Charles Cross, Abe Lucas, and some IOL upgrades.
When Seahawks QB Geno Smith has stability
We talked earlier about the Seahawks offensive explosion midway through last season, and Geno Smith had a lot to do with that. The comeback player of the year played like an MVP during that stretch, and the biggest keys to that stretch was due to three three things:
1 - Better rush defense
2 - A competent WR3
3 - A competent interior offensive line
When you look at Geno's numbers when the IOL of Austin Blythe and Gabe Jackson were holding up, Geno was able to step up in the pocket and into the MVP conversation.
Geno's nine-game run translated to 17 games:
36 TDs/ 7.5 INTs
70.87 completion percentage
272.4 YPG= 4,630 passing yards
112.1 passer rating
Those are numbers that would put Geno on par with the likes of Mahomes, Burrow, and Hurts. He was that good. Now, he has a better center, should have a better RG, has a very good pass-blocking RB in Charbonnet who's also an upgrade in the passing game, and the best slot WR to enter the league in maybe a decade.
A tougher schedule in 2023 for Seattle means probably a little bit more passing will be needed. Those are borderline MVP numbers we saw last year, and now there are massive upgrades. Arguably the greatest Ram of all time had the greatest comeback story in Kurt Warner. He rode his fairytale ride to a championship. Geno Smith may have a run like that in him to finish his fairytale story in 2023.
The Seahawks and Rams comparison is there
The 2023 Seahawks may not have an all-world talent like when the 2018 Rams had Aaron Donald on defense, but as a unit, they could be good enough in 2023. Their defense should be better than the last few years with the arrival of top pick Devon Witherspoon, and the additions of talented friends old and new on defense, a top-15 defense is realistic if not expected.
Other Seahawks news and analysis
Offensively, Geno Smith is a better quarterback than what Jared Goff was in 2018 (as well as now). If given the average pass protection and some run game help from his young running duo, Geno will have plenty of time in the Waldron offense to cook with three elite receivers.
I'm not sure if Seattle's trio of Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba will be as dominant as the 2018 Rams trio of Woods, Cooks and Kupp were, but I believe they're more talented.
The pieces are in place. Thanks to some excellent drafting, development, and some guts to get back to their core philosophy, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have built a potential rising power. Unlike the LOB era, this one appears to be offensive-driven, thanks to the brilliant acquisitions of Shane Waldron and Geno Smith. There's a chance that 2022 was the very best we'll see of Geno or Waldron, but I believe we're about to see an offensive performance unlike anything Seattle has ever seen.
How high can the Seahawks fly? They can fly to an NFC West title, and maybe even to the final game of the NFL season.