The Seattle Seahawks' beginning of their 2023 season is just days away. The team opens play against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday at Lumen Field. As much as NFL fans might think they know about their favorite team before a season begins, we don't really know what's going to happen until the real games begin.
The three narratives that follow might be the difference between Seattle beginning 2023 with a victory or a loss. The schedule gets much more difficult later in the season, so beating a weakened Rams team is nearly a must. The season won't be over if Seattle loses, but winnable games that are lost could be the difference between a team making the playoffs or not.
And Seattle is capable of getting to the postseason once again. Most of the impact talent that was on the 2022 roster is still around. But finding answers to what follows needs to begin immediately.
Narrative No. 1 - Are the Seahawks really better against the run?
We all know how bad Seattle was against the run in 2022. Oh, you may not remember? You've blocked it out of your mind. Well, allow me to refresh those awful memories. The Seahawks were 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (150.2), 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.9), and 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed (21).
Now, there are some caveats that go along with those numbers. One is that Clint Hurtt was in his first year as defensive coordinator so maybe there were some growing pains. That's not a good excuse, mind you, but it is an excuse. Secondly, Seattle had switched to more of a 3-4 base and simply had players not be good fits for that switch, except for maybe Al Woods.
Seattle tried to address their weak defensive line by overhauling nearly the entire unit. Out of Woods, Quinton Jefferson, and Poona Ford. In are Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Mario Edwards, Jr. Jones and Reed were solid, but not spectacular against the run last year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), while Edwards was good against the run. We can assume the Los Angeles Rams are going to want to run the ball quite a bit against Seattle (wouldn't you if you were the Rams?), so whether the new group of guys along Seattle's defensive line can stop the run or not might make the difference between Seattle winning in Week 1 and not.
Narrative No. 2 - Is Seahawks QB Geno Smith really as good as 2022?
Seattle has a bunch of offensive weapons and added receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet in the NFL draft and center Evan Brown in free agency. But the Seahawks could have Pro Bowlers at nearly every position and if they do not get good quarterback play then a lot of talent is simply wasted.
I like Geno Smith, and I believe he likely would have been a good QB1 for a couple of years had Russell Wilson not been in Seattle. Smith appears to be a fantastic fit in offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's scheme. One reason Smith can look fairly pedestrian in the preseason and then be electric at times in the regular season is that he knows the offense well enough to not show too much and when to take advantage of the scheme at other times.
Still, statistically speaking Geno Smith was better in the first half of 2022 than he was in the second half. Is this because teams figured Smith out a bit and adjusted accordingly? Smith, for instance, was much better against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13 of 2022 (28 for 39 passing for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns) than he was in Week 18 (19 of 31 for 213 yards with one touchdown throw but 2 interceptions). Did the Rams learn how to squelch Smith's productivity by the second game?
Maybe Smith was just being forced to do too much in the second half of 2022 as his defense was mostly bad and his top running backs were injured at times. But Smith should be even better in 2023 after having a full year of starting experience in Waldron's system. Week 1 Geno Smith could be indicative of how good he will be over the course of the season, and, in return, how good the offense will be as well.
Narrative No. 3 - Which new Seahawks might make a big difference?
In 2022, 12s got to see the team exceed expectations and a big reason for that was that last year's rookie class was extremely good. The 2023 class might also be capable of being brilliant, but many of this year's rookies have been banged-up and might not be in top form to begin the season. The class still needs to be quite productive over the season so that Seattle can once again exceed expectations.
But besides just the rookies, the Seahawks added quite a few potentially impactful players in free agency. Dre'Mont Jones could be a disruptor with his interior pass-rush ability, but how good he can be against the run in Seattle's defensive system versus what he did with the Denver Broncos remains to be seen. Can center Evan Brown truly be an upgrade over 2022 starter Austin Blythe? Can defensive end Mario Edwards, Jr. be stout against the run over a full year after bouncing around the league for the better part of his career?
Seattle, for all its talent, has a lot of talent, and a lot of that talent is new to the team. Therefore, we do not really know what to immediately expect from the new guys. Smith-Njigba might still be held out of Week 1 after breaking a bone in his wrist in preseason Week 2. Fellow first-round draft pick Devon Witherspoon is probably not going to play. So which first-year Seahawks might make big impressions in Week 1?
My guesses would be Jones, Brown, and Bobby Wagner. OK, Wagner isn't truly a first-year Seahawk, obviously, but he wasn't with the team in 2022 and his ability to communicate on the field should make a massive difference in the efficiency of the defense. Jones should get some heat on Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Brown should be able to bully Los Angeles' interior defenders not named Aaron Donald.