Projecting the Seahawks sack totals: Cry "Havoc!", and let slip the dogs of war

The Seattle Seahawks pass rush tied for seventh in the league in sacks last year with 45. There's every reason to believe they'll boost that total by double digits in 2023. Well, three or four reasons, at least, including big jumps from a pair of returning stars.

The fact that the 2022 Seahawks ranked seventh in sacks (tied with the Jets and Buccaneers, actually) might lead less a few aware 12s to think that Seattle's pass rush doesn't need any improvement from last season. True, they weren't as inept as the last-place Bears - and how did the Monsters of the Midway manage to get just 20 sacks - but the Hawks sack total is misleading.

Yes, the 45 sacks look good, but let's dig a bit deeper. You know, get mathy. You'll see that the Seahawks ranked 19th in total pressures last season. I'd say a big part of that lack of pressure was because they ranked 31st in blitzes, both as a percentage of dropbacks and absolute numbers. Compare the Hawks numbers to the top blitzing team in the league last year, the Giants.

New York's 253 blitzes nearly tripled Seattle's 95. El Gigantes blitzed on 39.7 percent of all passing plays, while the Hawks blitzed just 15.2 percent of the time. While New York only recorded 41 sacks, four less than Seattle, they pressured the QB 155 times, 25 more than our guys. The Giants ranked sixth in pressures, far more than the Seahawks.

Seahawks sacks are the name of the game, more or less

I need to clarify that I don't think blitzing is always the answer. The Eagles led the league in sacks with 70 and were just barely in second place in pressure percentage. Yet they ranked just 18th in blitz percentage. The Cowboys, one tick above the Eagles in pressure percentage, ranked 13th. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Steelers ranked 30th in pressure percentage - more of a Steel Sieve - yet ranked sixth in blitz percentage. Blitzing a lot can simply mean your pass rush can't get it done without help.

The two best defenses in the league were the Bills and the - it pains me to write this - the Niners. They were the only two teams to surrender less than 300 points, and were one and two in yards allowed as well. Yet they ranked 14th and 11th in pressure percentage. Both had fewer sacks than the Seahawks, too. Maybe sacks and pressures aren't everything then, right? Except that the two teams that met in the Super Bowl, the Eagles and Chiefs, ranked second and fifth in pressure percentage, and first and second in sacks.

We can get as mathy as we like with percentages, but sacks disrupt an offense like almost nothing else. For those of you pointing to interceptions, well yeah. Except, the middle-of-the-pack Steelers defense was tied for the league lead with 20 picks, while the Jets, fifth in yards and fourth in points allowed, only picked off 12 passes all year. All units have to be firing, sure, but I'll take the team piling up the sacks.

How the Seahawks will dial up the pressure this season

Various sites have predicted that Darrell Taylor will hit double-digits in sacks this season. ESPN's Seth Walder projects Taylor to record seven sacks (actually 6.8, but he's just being mathy). As our fearless leader Lee Vowell wrote earlier, the Hawks saw that the defense needed to be more aggressive. Seattle not only changed their entire defensive line but beefed up their pass rush through the draft. Another notable addition, perhaps even more important, was the arrival of pass rush specialist BT Jordan. I'll take an in-depth look at what he brings to the Hawks attack another time.

As for the draft, the most notable addition is Derick Hall, of course. Remember, we're just talking about the pass rush here. Mike Marsh will get his chances long before the season is done. While I expect Marsh to supplant Mario Edwards as the starter after the bye week, Derick Hall shows every sign of making a big splash from week one of the regular season. The Auburn EDGE with 4.55 speed looked solid against the Vikings, then showed the Cowboys what his game is all about.

Our own Michael Thompson nailed it when he wrote, "The Edge is real". I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Seahawks pass rush, but musically, it's hard to beat David Evans. As for the Hawks pass-rushing game, we've seen more fire and pressure from Mafe and Hall than we've typically seen from Taylor. When you consider how badly Taylor has played against the run in comparison to how good Mafe has looked, that's going to give the Hawks second-year player that many more opportunities to wreak havoc on the opposition.

As Michael-Shawn Dugar wrote for The Athletic (paywall alert, but you really ought to subscribe), the Seahawks pass rush is truly blossoming with the addition of Hall and Tyreke Smith. Along with the continued development of Mafe, Seattle could have their best pass rush group in a decade. Here's what Pete Carroll had to say, as quoted by Dugar:

"“I really like these guys,” coach Pete Carroll said Saturday night. “I don’t mind who is in the game. We have four or five guys that are playing. We like them all. If we can keep them fresh and keep them really fast, that’s going to be a great asset for us.”"

Why Boye Mafe will rack up the sacks

A little over two months ago, I broke down why I believed that Boye Mafe would take a huge leap forward this season. If you want to take a bit of a dive into my mathy world, jump to the link. For those of you with the same deep love of study as Kyler Murray, I'll summarize. I showed the rookie seasons of four dynamic pass rushers and Mafe. The four other guys averaged 23 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 5.5 QB hits, and 3 sacks. Mafe had 41 tackles - three for a loss - four QB hits and three sacks. Seems like he was right in the mix, right?

Those other four guys are John Randle, Frank Clark, Dre'Mont Jones, and Jason Taylor. I'm sure you know what they went on to do in their careers. As sophomore destroyers, that group averaged 9 sacks. Taylor was the only player that had more than eight starts as a rookie. Mafe, as you know, had just three last year and played on just 37 percent of defensive snaps. His improvement this off-season has thrust him into the starting role across from his pal Dre'Mont. That increased playing time alone would easily double his pass rush numbers.

Of course, Mafe has indeed gotten better. Much better, which is another reason I'm confident my earlier prediction of double-digit sacks for him will hold up. I'll get to specific numbers at the end, but for now, let's look at the major newcomer, Derick Hall. Expectations for Hall have to be tempered by his shoulder injury sustained in the final preseason contest against the Packers. Let's assume Hall manages to get back on the field by week two. In that case, he's still got 16 games and could have a big impact for Seattle's pass rush.

Derick Hall will make a big impact as a rookie

At worst, he goes on injured reserve and returns for the Seahawks after the bye for their week 6 game at the Bengals. That might be wishful thinking, as Darrell Taylor's shoulder injury has kept him out most of the summer, but I'm hopeful that if it was more serious, we'd have some indication of that by now. So worst-case scenario, Hall misses four games. That still gets him back on the field in plenty of time to get his game up to 100 percent for that tough run beginning on Thanksgiving.

I have to add here that no less than K.J. Wright believes Hall could be the league's Defensive Rookie of the Year. K.J. is probably just a little bit better at evaluating talent than I am. You'd think with the Hawks pass-rush rotation, it would be nearly impossible for Hall to get enough opportunities to have that big an impact. But if he blows up with a couple of sacks and QB hits in his first game, the Seahawks will have to play him. I can certainly see that happening. After all, K-9 didn't take off last year until he moved into the starting role. Let's just hope we see different circumstances for Hall.

So best case, Hall remains a rotational player but gets about as many snaps as Boye did last year. That would be about 400 plays. Hall already shows the same kind of motor that Mafe is showing this year. so I'll upgrade his production accordingly. I do have to keep in mind the production of that group I mentioned earlier, Randle, Taylor, et al. That being said, the explosiveness of Derick Hall fits the Jason Taylor mold much more closely than the style of John Randle .

Time to add it all up for the revamped Seahawks pass rush

Okay, we've looked at the main players on the edge. Time for a quick look at the big picture, before we get mathy. Tyreke Smith will get his opportunities as well. But as we can see, it's already a crowded group for the EDGE brigade, led by Uchenna Nwosu. I haven't forgotten about him, but we know what we're getting from the Seahaws true sack master. Darrell Taylor will have his say, of course. Unless he's traded for interior help, as I suggested the Seahawks do. Of course, he'll have to get healthy for either situation to play out. He's already been pushed out of the starting lineup by Boye Mafe due to that injury, and I can't imagine him getting the job back. If Mafe missed time, the Hawks would do well to start Hall in his place. They'd get a better pass rush, and he can't be as bad as Taylor is versus the run.

Let's look at the defensive line itself. I expect Dre'Mont Jones to improve his numbers from 2022 for three reasons. They're quite reasonable reasons at that. First, he'll benefit from the improved numbers of his cohorts. He led Denver in sacks last season. Yes, Bradley Chubb was traded away in mid-season, but no one else picked up the slack except for Jones. It's going to be awfully hard to double-team him when you've got three other guys racing to demolish the quarterback. And as with everyone else, the new, more aggressive philosophy and techniques coached by BT Jordan will have just as large an impact.

While Jones will give the Seahawks a huge boost in sacks over what Shelby Harris provided, Jarran Reed will boost the pressures and sacks as well. He's not going to hit double figures as a nose guard, of course, but he never was repeating that anyway. The combination of Mario Edwards and eventually Mike Marsh will surpass Quinton Jefferson's output, too. While sacks aren't exactly either player's strong suit, they're still an upgrade, especially (and eventually) Marsh. I'll tally all the numbers at the end.

We've talked about the edge players until you logged off, got some chips and salsa, watched the latest episode of Ahsoka, and washed the dog, so I won't recap that here. Mmm. doggo smells nice and fresh. Like tomatillos and cilantro. Next time, wash your hands first. From the middle linebackers, I doubt we'll see too many blitzes. Mainly because for once, we'll be getting decent pressure up front and from the edge. Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks will be staying home, patrolling the middle of the field for the most part, as will Devin Bush and Jon Rhattigan when they step in to spell either player.

The Seahawks defensive backs will have open visitation rights too

Let's move to the defensive backfield. You can expect a lot of blitzes from the nickel, whether it's Devon Witherspoon, Coby Bryant, or maybe even Julian Love. Witherspoon hits like a Mack truck, and Bryant forced four fumbles last season. I can see Jerrick Reed getting time in the nickel too, and he hits at least like a Ford 650. We're not likely to see many corner blitzes at all, but you can expect to see Jamal Adams and/or Julian Love at strong safety in the backfield quite a bit.

Alright, that's it. You made it, 12s! Here are my fearless and doubtless soon-to-be-derided predictions for the Seahawks pass rush, circa 2023. I'll list the main players in order of sacks, followed by a quick catchall of the fill-ins. A few notes for those of you who double-check numbers: pressures for individual players round up for half sacks, but the totals are accurate for the team. Rankings and all 2022 data are from pro-football-reference.com, my favorite stat guys.

Make a note that the Seahawks totaled just 44 sacks last year, along with 51 QB hits and 34 hurries for a total of 131 pressures. Clearly, I'm predicting a big jump, one with which I'm very comfortable. Had the Hawks rolled up these numbers last season, they would have ranked second in sacks and tied for second in total pressures. Seattle would have placed in the top ten in hits and hurries as well. I'm not the only one who thinks the Seahawks rejuvenated pass rush will turn heads - other than those of opposing quarterbacks - this season.

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