The Seahawks exceeded expectations in 2022 and seemed to add more talent this offseason, but for several reasons, Seattle could fail to meet expectations in 2023. There might even be a feeling that Seattle should be expected to be better than the team is ready for. The talent appears to be there, but teams need a lot more than simple talent to be very good.
We might have gotten a little spoiled last year when it came to the rookies, for instance. Tariq Woolen was much better than anticipated early in his career. Kenneth Walker was good, but he also showed he might get banged up easily.
Geno Smith was excellent for most of the season, though to be honest the offense struggled more in the second half of the season. The question remains whether Smith is actually good enough to lead the team on a deep playoff run. Plus, just because the Seahawks have talent doesn't mean other teams simply have more. Here are some reasons why Seattle might underperform this coming season.
Reasons Seahawks underperform in 2023 No. 1: The O-line
I think Seattle is set at offensive tackle for a long time. Charles Cross and Abe Lucas should be good bookends for the next five years or more. Plus, a year of seasoning for both players should make them even better in 2023. But what if Cross is never anything but better than average at left tackle? As the number 9 overall pick in 2022, the expectation is that he is a Pro Bowler one day, but maybe he's never good enough.
As far as the middle of the line, we don't know if free agent signee is even good enough to start at center over the fifth-round rookie, Olu Oluwatimi, that Seattle chose in the 2023 draft. Nor do we know if veteran Phil Haynes is good enough to start over another 2023 draftee, Anthony Bradford. Plus, relying on so many young offensive linemen could doom the season as they are bound to make mistakes.
Reasons Seahawks underperform in 2023 No. 2: Can't stop the run
I don't agree with the theory that the Seahawks didn't do much this offseason to address the issue they had in 2022 when it came to stopping the run. Sure, they didn't take defensive tackles high in the draft, but they signed Jarran Reed and Dre'Mont Jones in free agency. The team also added run stopping linebackers Bobby Wagner and Devin Bush in free agency. Heck, Seattle even signed safety Julian Love and he is good against the run too.
But teams that are great against the run have guys in the middle of the defensive line who can eat up blocks but also make a splash play somewhat consistently. Jones is potentially extremely disruptive rushing the passer. Reed is just solid against the run, but not elite. Are Reed and Jones capable of being better than the guys on the team last year? Of course.
But what if Jones repeats his numbers from the Broncos from the last few seasons? That means he is going to get about 6 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 9 tackles for loss. Those are decent numbers, but they also aren't much better than what Quinton Jefferson games the Seahawks in 2022. Jones needs to be a difference-maker, but is he truly capable of that?
As far as the linebackers, Devin Bush is still fast, even after suffering a knee injury in 2020. He is a great tackler and players don't get away from him when he has his hands on them. But he also has never had a higher run grade, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), than in his rookie year of 2019 and that was 63.3. A solid number but nowhere near great. Plus, Bush isn't going to help much against the pass.
Finally, while Love is good against the run, do you really want him to be a standout there in the 2023 Seattle defense? If so, that could mean running backs are getting to the second level a lot against Seattle. That's not good and means a 5-yard or more carry and those are the kind that control the clock, dictate pace, and wear a defense down. Lastly, Seattle has no proven nose tackle at this point.
Reasons Seahawks underperform in 2023 No. 3: The corners might be overrated
Let me point out that in this entire article, I am not saying I think any of it will happen, only that it might. It's kind of like the ghost of Christmas yet to come. These are things that might happen and have just as much chance to occur as the opposite, but that Seattle players control their own destiny and the team could be great.
It is easy, though, to see Tariq Woolen and rookie Devon Witherspoon as a fantastic corner duo and they haven't proven that yet. Witherspoon has never played a down in the NFL after all, and in college it took him a few seasons to be truly elite. Woolen did have 6 interceptions in 2022, but he had 4 of those in the first six weeks. From Week 7 on, Woolen only had 2 picks in 11 games.
Teams also seemed to figure out that Woolen could be beat at times on crossing patterns when he appeared to miscommunicate with the rest of the secondary. Woolen is extremely athletic and is a bright guy, but breakdowns in the secondary get teams beat. He needs to learn from his miscues in 2022 and apply what he learned to 2023 and we aren't yet sure he can do that.
Let's hope, though, that the corners are as good as hoped, the run defense is better because the tackling is much improved, and the offensive line gels quickly and remains consistently good. If with all that, Seattle will need some breaks to have a deep playoff run. But the talent is there, now Seattle just needs to execute.