Seahawks Week 1 scouting report versus the Denver Broncos

The Seattle Seahawks begin what could be a magical season on September 8 at Lumen Field against the Denver Broncos. Kickoff is set for 1:05 PST. This will be the Hawks' only game against an AFC West team this season, and one of just five played outside of the NFC. Seattle opened as a 5.5-point favorite at home, according to FanDuel, and that number crept up in early wagering.

There are lots of angles to take on this contest. Denver’s rookie QB going up against Geno Smith off back-to-back Pro Bowls. But Denver has a veteran Super Bowl-winning coach taking on an opposite number in his first game as a head coach at any level.

So what can we expect to see from the Hawks and the Broncos this Sunday? Let’s start with a brief scouting report of the Seahawks' opponent.

What should the Seahawks expect from the Denver Broncos in Week 1?

Last season

Denver entered last year determined to bounce back from a disastrous 2022. Things did not start well. They got off to a 1-5 start, including a humiliating loss to Miami in which the once-proud defense gave up 70.

Then, as everyone was preparing to write off coach Sean Payton (who had won just six of his first 23 games in the Mile High City), a mini-miracle occurred. Denver tore off five unlikely wins in a row.  Four of them came against teams that would make the playoffs, including one against the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

They stumbled down the stretch, including a devastating home loss to the lowly New England Patriots that derailed their playoff chances. Russell Wilson was sacked five times in the loss. It was the time he would play for Denver.

Denver entered the off-season knowing it needed to address several key shortcomings. On defense, they were helpless against the run, giving up a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. On offense, they were mundane. They wanted to address the run defense situation over the off-season and find more playmakers on offense. Far and away the top priority was finding a new quarterback.

Offseason moves

Denver thinks they found their quarterback in Oregon’s Bo Nix. When they took him with the number 12 pick in the first round, five other QBs had already been selected. Some analysts considered the pick a reach. Nix’s less-than-ideal size and arm strength are what dropped him below other prospects despite a spectacular 2023 season with the Ducks.

But Sean Payton may well have seen another Drew Brees in the 6’2” Nix, who started an astonishing 61 games in his college career, both for Auburn and for Oregon.

Later in the draft, Payton tried to find some weapons for his new quarterback in receivers Troy Franklin (Nix’s Oregon teammate) and Devaughn Vele, and running back Audric Estime. He also took edge rusher Jonah Elliss. Elliss may have an immediate impact. The others probably will not.

The Broncos attempted to address their porous run defense in other ways. They signed Malcolm Roach from the Saints and traded for John Franklin-Myers from the Jets, and both look to be upgrades against the run.

They made several key free agent signings, adding receiver Josh Reynolds, and trying to fill the massive gap left by safety Justin Simmons with Brandon Jones. Since Simmons’ partner Kareem Jackson is also gone, the Broncos will have two new starting safeties to begin 2024.

What to expect in Week 1

A lot of Sunday’s game will come down to how well Bo Nix responds in his first professional game against a quality defense. Mike Macdonald is not likely to blitz the rookie very much, but he will try to confuse with defensive motion and disguised coverages. Everyone who has watched has praised Nix’s maturity and processing speed, which is remarkable for a rookie.

But it is a tall order to think he will flourish against a defense like Seattle's, which can generate pressure without blitzing and boasts ball-hawking defensive backs.

The Broncos' offensive line really should be better than it has been over the past couple of years. They have high-priced players across the line who stayed mostly healthy last season, and yet they still seemed helpless against teams with strong pass rushes. They will be breaking in a young center this season, and you can expect Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Byron Murphy II to apply a lot of pressure up the middle.

Perhaps Nix will prove more effective than the aging Russell Wilson had been at evading the rush, but Seahawks pass rushers should make his life difficult.

Denver receivers are adequate, nothing better at this point. Courtland Sutton has flashed upper-level talent in the past, and in 2023, he had his best season since his Pro Bowl sophomore campaign in 2019. But he has yet to become an elite number-one receiver. Reynolds is serviceable but has only gone over 40 catches once in his seven-year career.

Marvin Mims is an outstanding punt returner who Seattle will have to pay particular attention to. But he did little as a receiver in his rookie season. (And fortunately, Michael Dickson has a knack for neutralizing opponents' punt returners.)

Denver will probably try to help out Nix by leaning on running back Javonte Williams, who is coming off a forgettable 2023 season. Jaleel McLaughlin is a dangerous option as a receiver out of the backfield.  But for the most part, unless Bo Nix debuts as the second coming of C.J. Stroud, the Broncos offense shouldn’t pose many serious problems for the Hawks.

The new-look Broncos front seven should stand up better against the run, and Denver has a number of good young pass rushers led by Zach Allen, and including Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and the rookie Elliss. This will be an important early test for the questionable Seahawks offensive line.

If they can keep Geno Smith comfortable, he should be able to hit on some big plays. Patrick Surtain and nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillian are the only returning starters from last season's secondary. Cornerback Riley Moss and safety Jones are new, and P.J. Locke moves into a starting role after being a special teams standout for the last four years.

Look for Ryan Grubb to attack the middle of the Broncos' defense both on the ground and in the air. Inside linebacker Alex Singleton did not play especially well last season and at 30, he may be regressing. Longtime Bronco Josey Jewell departed this offseason and is being replaced by old friend Cody Barton. Barton’s one season in Washington was a nightmare and he enters 2024 with a lot to prove. Word is he has looked more comfortable playing in Vance Joseph’s system, but between them, Singleton and Barton should be major targets for the Hawks offense.

Marvin Mims is a wild card as a punt and kickoff returner. Kicker Will Lutz and punter Riley Dixon are both solid veterans, and Denver’s special teams – coached by both the ageless Mike Westhoff and Ben Kotwica – are all very solid units. Westhoff and Kotwica have something like 1,000 years of combined experience coaching special teams. In a close game, special teams could make a huge difference.

But, to be honest, I don’t really think it will be all that close. We’ll have a few more specific predictions as we get closer to game time.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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