A shocking number of 12s still say Drew Lock just needs a chance to start for the Seattle Seahawks. I have good reason to believe it would go poorly. And the Geno haters would still find a way to blame Smith.
One of my first thoughts this morning was about the Seahawks game today. Whether that's an occupational hazard or simply being a 12, I'm not sure. So, I sent this text to my brother in Hawkdom, Lee: "I kinda wish that Geno would sit this one out, just so we can be done with the 'Drew needs a chance' BS. But then, they'd just complain that Geno is soft, so..." "They" being the small cadre of 12s that for some reason have forgotten that Geno Smith has often been great, and Drew Lock has rarely shown that ability on the football field.
Yes, we'll get a little mathy, but not too mathy. Today, the only math to worry about is the time and temperature to hit the sweet spot for a tender turkey that isn't too dry. Hint: you should have brined it yesterday. And then there's the ratio of butter to taters for the best mashed potatoes. Oh, and the number of side dishes per pound of turkey. And then there's the - oh, sorry. Back to football.
The Seattle Seahawks do not want to see Drew Lock start
You'd think that would be obvious, right? I mean, if they wanted Lock to start, he would. A small but vocal cadre of 12s has clamored for Drew Lock to get his chance since late last season when Geno Smith's performance first dropped off. Since I wrote that article, Smith had an excellent game versus the Commanders (116.3 passer rating) and a mediocre game against the Rams (84.1 rating). Of course, Smith missed two series against Los Angeles, which gave Drew Lock the chance he needed to prove he could be the guy.
Let me preface this by again stating that I was happy the Seahawks re-signed Lock. I'd love it if he could step in for Smith and lead the Hawks to win after win and become the Seattle version of Earl Morrall. You kids will have to google him. But Lock simply shows no signs of that. His supporters point to the 63 yards passing he had versus the Giants. Somehow they forget that Noah Fant created 51 of those yards, abetted by a great block by DK Metcalf. They forget he was nearly picked off in that game.
What could we expect from Lock if he has to play the entire game against the Niners? Well, he's never played San Francisco, but the Chiefs had a good defense when Lock was the Broncos. In four games, he was 69-132 for 775 yards, two touchdowns and five picks. To his credit, he did score three rushing touchdowns, so that's pretty sweet. But he lost all four games: 23-3, 43-16, 22-16, and 28-24. in that last game, Lock was 12-24 for 162 yards but did score on the ground twice. Maybe if the Hawks run him exclusively in a single wing, they'd have a chance. Otherwise, no thanks.
Drew Lock has been one of the league's worst QBs this year
And somehow, they remain under the delusion that Lock simply needs another chance, after he was absolutely abysmal in relief of Smith against the Rams. I like the guy, but he was 2 of 6 for three yards - yes, three - and threw an interception that not even the great Tyler Lockett could save. Pro Football Focus (our paywalled buddies) ranks him last among all Seahawks players on offense. Yes, below Jake Curhan, who allowed 26 pressures in six games, and has been released by the team. I guess Lock's fans can take solace in that he's ranked ahead of Clayton Tune and Mitch Trubisky.
Sadly, he's also ranked behind Brett Rypien. You know, the guy the Seahawks nabbed from the Rams practice squad. A lot of people figured it was just to get some intel on the Rams' offense, as Rypien had actually started for Los Angeles the week before their tilt with Seattle. Rypien certainly isn't great, but he's outperformed Lock. In two games this season (the first a mid-game replacement), the Spokane native connected on 18 of 38 passes for 178 yards, no touchdowns, and one pick. Sounds pretty awful, really. But he's still miles better than Lock.
Well, yards better, anyway. Diving into his numbers (thanks to pro-football-reference.com), we see that Rypien averages 4.9 yards per completion before the ball reaches his target. In other words, he isn't just dumping the ball off and hoping the receiver can make something of nothing. In contrast, that's exactly what we see with Lock. He's averaging just 2.8 air yards per completion. Oh, he tries to throw the deep ball, alright. Lock's intended air yards - or depth of target for us regular folks - is a sparkling 11.6 yards per attempt. The problem is that he can't complete those throws, so he winds up with just .9 yards per attempt, on average. That's right, your Seahawks savior has averaged about 32 inches in the air per pass attempt this season.
Sure, Lock could be better, but he has never shown that
So do tell me about how he looked good in preseason, completing passes against the opposition's second-string unit playing vanilla defenses. Tell me again how he just never got a chance in Denver, despite 710 passing attempts in 21 starts. I'll grant you that he didn't have much of a chance as their offense was garbage with any quarterback. But look again at his numbers. The same link shows Lock's percentage of drops and bad throws. Obviously, we're looking at a small sample in Seattle, the reason his fans and the Smith detractors ask for him to "get a chance". He had those chances in Denver and wasn't good. Drop percentages: 5.9, 5.8, and 6.4 percent, followed by 8.3 percent with the Seahawks so far. His bad throw percentages are truly awful: 17.8, 22.9, 22.0, and 41.0 percent.
Now for Geno Smith's numbers. The first two are from minimal attempts, just like Lock this season, as Smith only had 4, then 5 attempts in those seasons. Geno's drop percentages: 0, 0, 0, 3.3, 3.5 percent. Bad throw percentages: 0, 20.0, 14.8, 11.8, and 15.0 percent. That 20 percent, by the way, was out of five passes. By the way, Pro Football Focus' top-rated passer, Tua Tagovailoa, has similar numbers to Smith: drops are 4.3, 4.5, 6.7, and 4.5 percent, while his bad throw percentages are 18.8,16.3, 15.8. and 12.3 percent.
The problem I have with all the crying and rending of clothing for Drew Lock isn't that he absolutely can't do it. It's that time and again when asked to give a shred of evidence that he might be able to play effectively, I just get answers like " I just know it", or "I've got a feeling," or best of all, "shut up" - albeit the last not in such family-friendly terms. Support the players you want to support, absolutely. But at the least, offer some shred of evidence to back your statements. You're showing up for the family dinner with chopped celery in lime jello. It's insubstantial at best, and - gaaah. Just keep it to yourself.