The Seattle Seahawks are about to restart their season and they will have a non-stop string of games until Week 18. Seattle's only bye week of 2023 was this past weekend in Week 5. But while normally having such an early bye might not be a great thing, this year the bye was likely needed.
Seattle has already had to deal with multiple injuries in multiple position groups, especially the offensive line and at cornerback, and some rest is only going to help the team. Seattle should get left tackle Charles Cross back for Week 6, for instance. By Week 7, right tackle Abraham Lucas could return as well.
The Seahawks are 3-1 and if the season were to end right now (which would be weird to have an NFL season end after most teams have played just five games), Seattle would be in the playoffs. But Seattle still has 13 games to play and anything can happen, of course. But to increase their chances of making the playoffs yet again, Seattle needs to fix a few things.
Seattle Seahawks have a penalty issue but it's not just the amount
Seattle might just be 13th in the number of penalties picked up in 2023 (and by the way, that is still near the top-third of the NFL), but they are sixth in terms of yards when penalized. And worse, seven of their 32 penalties have been 15 yards or longer, second worst in the league (I have no idea what the Detroit Lions are doing, though as the referees seem to hate them as they have 10 15-yard penalties that were accepted).
Offensive holding and false starts are the kinds of penalties that are simply going to happen. But the Seahawks do not rank in the top half of the league in either of those. Instead, Seattle is near the top of the league in roughing the passer and taunting, both penalties that are corrected, sure, but mostly shouldn't happen. A roughing the passer penalty here or there will occur, but when you have a player like Darrell Taylor hit a quarterback about 3 seconds after the quarterback no longer has the ball - this happened in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions - then that is pretty unacceptable.
Seattle has to correct the penalty concerns. The team has been lucky that they haven't been hurt too much by silly penalties, but eventually in an important game they will.
Seattle's third down offense stinks again
In 2022, Seattle was 20th in the NFL in third down conversions (37.8 percent). But before one goes blaming Geno Smith for that kind of inefficiency after he took over QB1 duties last season, one should know that 2021 was worse. Seattle ranked 23rd in the league in third down conversions (37.3). The last time the Seahawks ranked inside the top 20 of the league in third down conversions was 2019 when they were 16th at 39.5 percent.
The issue also isn't offensive coordinator Shane Waldron either. Third downs have been a concern for Seattle over a few OCs now. And the issue is almost exclusive to third down. On first and second down in 2023, Seattle has a success rate of 53.1 percent, second in the league. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) rate is third in the league.
But then when the team is forced to get to third down, trouble happens. (And I point out specifically when the team is forced to go to third down because in the second half against the Lions in Week 2 Seattle rarely went to a third down, and didn't at all in the game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.) In terms of EPA, the Seahawks fall to 28. In overall success rate, Seattle falls to 31. Seattle's success rate is 29.8 percent while, in comparison, the New York Giants are 38.2.
Seattle has managed to make it to 3-1 even with third down concerns. But one could also argue they have played two not-good teams in the Carolina Panthers and Giants. The games get much tougher between weeks 12 and 15 and that stretch against the 49ers (twice), Cowboys, and Eagles, could make or break the season. Seattle will need to increase their performance on third down going forward overall, but especially in those four games.
Seattle's third down defense also stinks again
Here we go again. Only one season since 2018 have the Seahawks ranked as good as 13th in the league in third down conversions allowed. In 2020, Seattle was 27th in the NFL and allowed 47.1 percent. Giving up first downs nearly half the time a defense has a chance to get an offense off the field is defeating both emotionally and in a game. But like the offense, Seattle hasn't been horrific on first or second down defensively.
But just when you think things are as bad as they can be, 2023 happens. Seattle is currently 31st in third down conversions allowed and is allowing 52.4 percent of third downs to be picked up. This might imply several bits. One is that the run defense, while statistically good isn't as good on third and short situations. Another is that Seattle still gives up far too many first downs when a team throws a quick out route or a pass over the top of the linebackers.
Seattle also doesn't get enough consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Week 4's performance against the New York Giants vastly skews Seattle's pass rush statistics. Even after getting 11 sacks and 14 quarterback hits on Daniel Jones, the Seahawks are eighth in sack percentage (8.8). But in the first three games, Seattle's sack percentage was just 4.1 percent (which would rank 28th in the league over the course of the entire season so far).
As far as defensive EPA, Seattle ranks 2nd in the league on first and seconds downs, but that falls to 31 on third down. The Seahawks coaches obviously know about this issue but so do other coaches in the league. Think Seattle has a chance against teams like the 49ers or Eagles if Seattle continues bad third down defense? They don't.