Three bold predictions for the Seahawks Week 6 game versus 49ers

You know, when you sit down to write Bold Predictions, you try to envision a basic game script. Then you imagine some unlikely-but-conceivable stats or moments that might grow out of that script. At least, that’s how I do it. And up until last week, I have been pretty good with the game script predictions, even if I missed on the actual predictions.

Then the Seattle Seahawks played the New York Giants. We noted last week that this was a classic trap game because the Giants aren’t very good and were traveling across the country. The Seahawks may have been looking ahead to their showdown with San Francisco on Thursday. Regardless of all that “trap” potential, this was a game Seattle had no business losing, especially when the Giants were missing their most dangerous offensive weapon.

The sloppiness of the play and the astonishing abandonment of the running game makes this the biggest black mark on the rather promising start to Mike Macdonald’s head coaching career. He needs to show he can get this team ready to play this week.

Bold predictions for the Seattle Seahawks versus the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6

And I need to show I can rebound with some solid predictions. I even nailed one of my three predictions for the Giants’ game – that the Hawks would score a touchdown on defense or special teams. But I don’t feel good about it. I thought it would come because the Giants would fall behind and the Seahawks’ defense would force Daniel Jones into a mistake. As it was, it was somewhat of an early fluke.

And considering how badly I misread the other two predictions, concerning the Hawks offensive explosion and an A.J. Barner breakout, I’m not claiming credit for anything. In fact, I’m worried that since I wrote about how this matchup favored a “pass-setting-up-the-run” strategy, that Ryan Grubb read my piece and decided to basically throw the ball on every down.

Let’s just say that we all screwed the pooch this week and move on. The 49ers are coming. Both teams are desperate – and injured. Here are three bold predictions for this week, as we all look to get back on the winning track.

Brock Purdy will not throw a touchdown pass

Last year, Brock Purdy threw a touchdown pass on seven percent of his attempts, the highest mark in the league. The year before, he was even better, but didn’t have enough passes to qualify for the league lead.  This year, even though he is still operating at a high level in most categories, he simply is not throwing touchdowns like he has.

Part of that has to do with the fact that his big play receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, held out during training camp while pursuing a new contract. Part of it has to do with the fact that George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have not really hit their stride yet. Kittle is 31 and could finally be slowing down. Samuel is 28 and seems to always have some type of nagging injury. Mostly, it has to do with the absence of Christian McCaffrey, a player whose mere presence makes everyone on the Niners offense significantly more dangerous.

Jauan Jennings had an enormous game in Week three but he is also dealing with a wrist problem. Samuel seems to be getting back into the fold after some early-season aches and pains. The floodgates could open for this offense at any time. I just figure that the Hawks defense, playing at home, will not be the ones to let those gates open. Macdonald has shut down talented offenses in the past, and I think he will figure a way to do it again come Thursday. (By the way – since becoming a starter in Week 12 of the 2022 season, Purdy has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 24 out of the 27 games he has played.)

Kenneth Walker will rush for over 100 yards

I am old enough to remember the NFL before the Seattle Seahawks existed, but I don’t think I was alive the last time the 49ers gave up 100 yards to running back. (In the regular season at least – Aaron Jones did it against them in last year’s playoffs.) The 49ers just don’t let opposing backs get going.

But this year, things have been a little different. It hasn’t been the same stifling defensive front that we saw last season. The San Fran interior is missing Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave up front, and ferocious linebacker Dre Greenlaw behind them. Ty Chandler, Kyren Williams, and James Conner have all gone for more than 80 on the ground. Not surprisingly, those were in the three games the 49ers have lost this year. Both Chandler and Conner gashed them pretty good, but the Williams’ game was most instructive.

Williams averaged under four-yards-per-run against San Fran, but the Rams kept pounding him. Sean McVay saw something to exploit in the 49ers defense and it paid off. I’m thinking that Ryan Grubb may have learned something from his incomprehensible game plan against New York, in which the Hawks ran just 11 times and threw the ball 40 times. He will run Walker all night. He will get stuffed a lot but he will break a few big runs. It will wear down the Niners defense and it will keep Purdy off the field.

There will be a coaching reconfiguration after the game

I really do not like this type of prediction for two reasons. First, as a prediction, it is fuzzy. It’s not a number or a specific achievement. It’s more vague than that. Second, it sounds as if I am calling for someone’s job, and that is definitely not the case.

The fact is, Jay Harbaugh should not be the Seahawks special teams coordinator. I can fully understand why Mike Macdonald wanted to clean house and put his stamp on the staff, and that is why Larry Izzo is currently coaching improved special teams for the Commanders. But other than a few years as a low-level assistant just out of college, Harbaugh has never coached at the NFL level. Obviously, he has a certain NFL pedigree, but the fact that Macdonald hired the nephew of his former boss John Harbaugh always smelled of nepotism. Still, Jay Harbaugh may turn out to be a sensational NFL coach.

But he is learning the NFL – and he is learning it as a coordinator for a team with playoff aspirations. That is simply untenable. Sadly, the results have been predictably bad. The blocked field goal against the Giants is only the latest disaster. Jason Myers is having his worst season. Michael Dickson is having his worst season. Dickson is kicking the ball as well as ever but his net yards and his “inside-the-20” numbers are significantly down. Coverage has been poor. Returns have been poor. The special teams simply have not looked good from the get-go.

That could turn around – and I do believe Jay Harbaugh has a bright future. But he might need help both adjusting to the NFL game and dealing with the NFL player. I do not expect Harbaugh to be fired, but I think it is likely that assistant coach Devin Fitzsimmons, who is older and has more NFL experience than Harbaugh, will be given an increased role, perhaps rising to the level of de facto co-coordinator with Harbaugh.

This may be hard to verify, and we will only know it has happened if Macdonald publicizes it. But I’ll be looking for signs of this both in the game Thursday and in its aftermath.

No bonus predictions this week. We all need to just get back to the basics for now.

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