Three bold predictions for the Seahawks Week 2 game versus Patriots

I came close in last week’s bold predictions. I had a Seattle Seahawks running back beating a Broncos linebacker for a touchdown. (OK – I said the linebacker would be Cody Barton but it was Alex Singleton.) I had the total at five combined sacks and turnovers. (OK – I didn’t mention fumbles.) Like I said – I came close.

But close isn’t good enough. We’re aiming for perfection. (I’m conveniently ignoring the third prediction about Marvin Mims and a kick return, but that’s OK. Sean Payton and the entire Broncos organization appears to be totally ignoring Marvin Mims at this point.)

So, against the Patriots this week, what can we expect from Seattle? Mike Macdonald takes his team on the road for the first time as a head coach. He goes up against a Patriots team that is also 1-0 and is also being coached by a first-time headman in Jerod Mayo. Two defensive-minded head coaches. Two strong defenses. Two veteran quarterbacks.

Three bold predictions for the Seahawks versus the Patriots in Week 2

As I mentioned in the scouting report of the Patriots, these are two surprisingly similar teams. But Seattle has a decent advantage at QB and a massive advantage at wide receiver, and that should result in a win. That isn’t exactly a bold prediction. But these are…

There will be a 60+ yard field goal in this game

Both Jason Myers and the Pats’ Joey Slye have gone over 60 in their careers. The weather should be conducive to long kicks on Sunday. Most importantly, this could be a low-scoring game in which both teams have trouble moving the ball consistently against strong defenses. Field goals could be key.

Both Macdonald and Mayo will be willing to steal three points on long field goals, and just as importantly, both coaches trust their defenses to bail them out should the kicker miss and the opposing offense starts near midfield. All the ingredients are there for a really long kick. And I trust both kickers to convert. Combined, they have converted on 65 percent of their kicks over 50 yards.

The two offenses will combine to run the ball more than 65 times

A little context here. Pittsburgh and Atlanta combined to run the ball on 63 offensive plays in week one. That was the most in the league. That number was largely based on the Steelers 41 runs – the most by one team last week. The average number of combined running plays in week one was 54. The Seahawks and Broncos combined for 58 rushes. The Pats and Bengals ran it 55 times.

The problem with reaching a high total of combined runs is that usually, one team falls behind and stops running. Therefore, should the Seahawks get out to a big early lead, no matter how much New England may want to rely on Rhamondre Stevenson, they may have to abandon the run. However, if the game remains close, New England will keep pounding the ball.

Both teams have strong pass rushes and solid coverage units. Both teams have defensive-minded coaches who want to control the ball. The Patriots' offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt came from Cleveland where he ran Nick Chubb all the time. He will want to run Stevenson at the middle of the Seahawks' defense all day long.

Ryan Grubb will want to do the same thing against the Pats, who are missing Christian Barmore in the middle. The main difference is that if Seattle is successful, they have the firepower to take shots downfield once they have the run established. The Patriots will just keep pounding the ball regardless.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba will come alive

JSN had a quiet opening day. He only saw two targets against Denver. But other than Tyler Lockett, no Hawks’ pass catcher had more than four targets. I don’t anticipate Geno Smith flinging the ball all over the field come Sunday, but when he does look for big plays, I suspect JSN may be his top target.

New England has an outstanding top cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. They have another solid perimeter defender in Jonathan Jones. Combined with the Pats’ strong pass rush, they should at least partly neutralize Metcalf and Lockett.

Marcus Jones, who typically plays the slot for New England, has been playing very well recently. But he could have a difficult time with JSN. Geno may try to hit some plays over the top to Metcalf, but he may find it easier to attack Marcus Jones with JSN in the middle.

If Seattle’s running game is working, the Pats' very good safeties will be cheating forward which will open things up for JSN on quick crosses. There will come a time when he will get a step on Marcus Jones, Geno will hit him in stride and he’ll be gone.

That’s a guarantee. Not like last week, when I had the final score being 27-14 (which would have been dead on if not for the late TD – or the gift of 8-10 points in the first half) and I had Kenneth Walker III going for 120 yards (he had 103.) Like I said, I was close on a lot of stuff last week. This week, I’m going for perfection.

More Seahawks news and analysis: