Three bold predictions for the Seahawks Week 4 game versus Lions

I’m developing an annoying pattern with these bold predictions for every Seattle Seahawks game. Each week, I nail one, I completely whiff on another, and the third one is a near miss, often accompanied by a “dog ate my homework” kind of excuse. Take last week for instance.

I told you the Hawks would have at least five sacks, a number that had not reached since Week 16 of last year. They had six against the Dolphins. Not only that, I told you Dre’Mont Jones would get his first sack of the season, and he did. He had the Seahawks’ first sack of the game, causing a fumble by Skylar Thompson.

On the other hand, even a glass-is-half-full guy like me can’t spin Laviska Shenault’s two touches for twenty yards into the big game I predicted. I guess we’ll have to wait a while longer for YAC Man’s breakout.

Three bold predictions for the Seahawks versus the Lions in Week 4

As for the third prediction – that Miami, even with a backup quarterback, would throw the ball 40 times – well Thompson and Tim Boyle only threw 32 passes. Figuring in those six sacks, they dropped back to pass 38 times but still didn’t quite get to 40.

New week – a clean slate. What can we expect to see against the Detroit Lions this Monday night? Since I seem to have better luck reading the defensive side of the ball, today all three predictions will concern the Lions offense and Hawks’ D.

The Seahawks will hold David Montgomery to under 3.5 yards per carry

David Montgomery is the Lions' bread and butter. They have more explosive players in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta, but it all starts with Montgomery. They want to pound him up the gut and force opponents' linebackers and safeties to pinch it. That opens up the field for the speed backs and receivers.

Since escaping Chicago, Montgomery has been one of the league’s best inside runners. He averaged under four yards per carry over four seasons with the Bears but was up to 4.6 last year under Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson. He has maintained that pace through three games this year.

However, two factors are working against him this week. First, center Frank Ragnow’s status is uncertain. The Lions have one of the best O-lines in football, and Ragnow is its heart and soul. He will try to play with the partially torn pec, but even if he does, how effective will he be? And if he sits out, how much does it hinder the Lions’ interior running game?

And then there’s this. The one team that completely stymied the Lions' offense last season was the Baltimore Ravens. I don’t think I need to remind you who their D coordinator was. Montgomery sat out that game, but even had he played, I suspect he would have found it very tough sledding. Mike Mcdonald knows what the key is to slowing down the Lions’ potent offense, and he has done it before.

Jameson Williams will bust one 50-yard+ play

But Macdonald will not be able to shut the Lions down completely as he did with Baltimore last season. That was an outlier. Dan Campbell has made a concerted effort to get Williams more involved this year. He was selected out of Alabama with the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft but was a non-factor his rookie year. He began showing signs of life last year, and this year he seems to be finally evolving as the splash player Detroit assumed they were getting.

With St. Brown handling the more complex route tree out of the X position, Williams is becoming a very dangerous Z target. He has been targeted 23 times through three games and has had 50-yard receptions in each of his last two games.

If you think that trend makes my prediction something less than “bold,” let me first say that 50-yard pass plays are not common, especially in three consecutive weeks. But, if you want something extra bold, I’ll throw this into the prediction. Williams' splash play will come on a run, and not on a pass. (But I’m still claiming credit if he snags a 50-yard catch.)

A Seahawks cornerback will have a sack

Even if Ragnow does not play, it is hard to get pressure on Jared Goff. The Lions have two excellent tackles and a couple of tough veteran guards on the inside. Goff doesn’t scramble, but he can still move inside the pocket and gets rid of the ball quickly when he feels pressure. That is something he did not do nearly as well early in his career, but with experience, he has gotten much better. Last year, the Lions surrendered just 31 sacks, fourth best in the league. When you figure in the number of times they thew, they were third best in terms of sack percentage.

But five of those 31 sacks came in that game against Mike Macdonald’s Ravens’ defense. And one of those sacks came from slot corner Arthur Maulet. Macdonald is not likely to blitz Goff very often on Monday, but he will be looking for creative ways to confuse the blocking schemes and generate pressure.

I would expect Devon Witherspoon to be the most likely corner to record a sack, but Tre Brown is a definite possibility. If I were truly bold, I would predict Riq Woolen getting his first career sack against the Lions, but even I have my limits.

Want a bonus? I already swung and missed on this one in week two, but this game should provide an opportunity for a long field goal. If either Jason Myers or the Lions’ Jake Bates boots one past 60, don’t be surprised. (And if either does, I’m claiming credit.)

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