Three reasons the Seahawks don't need Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson may be the prize free agent of them all this off-season, but there are three excellent reasons the Seahawks don't need him on their team.

It's been a busy off-season in the world of NFL free agency, as always. The Seahawks have certainly been as active as any team in the league. They've added some much-needed upgrades to their roster and kept key players onboard as well. Two of those upgrades are lambs who lost their way and are returning to the flock this season. Hmmm... can you have a flock of Seahawks? That's a pretty big pair of birds - Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner - that's for sure.

Despite the Hawks success in their shopping spree, there are still a few major names available on the market. The biggest talent by far has to be Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Still just 26 years old, Jackson has two Pro Bowls and one All-Pro season to his credit. He's racked up a 45-16 record as a starter and has led the league in touchdowns, TD percentage, and QBR. Twice, Jackson has run for over 1,000 yards, setting the season record for rushing yards by a QB with 1,206 in his All-Pro season. Many of the football cognoscenti consider him to be the most dynamic player in the NFL today. There's good reason to consider him the most valuable free agent of 2023.

The Seahawks don't need Lamar Jackson

After singing the praises of Mr. Jackson, how then can I go on to say that the Seahawks don't need him? I can think of one very good reason, and I'm sure you can too, 12s. Seems that the Seattle Seahawks already signed a pretty good free agent QB, a really nice fella named Geno Smith. No, I'm not saying that Smith is a better football player than Jackson. But last season, he was a better quarterback. Yeah, yeah, I hear you scoffing, nonbeliever. so, let's get - yes, you guessed it - mathy.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs Lamar Jackson by the numbers

Let's look at the numbers of these two players. Normally I'd play a little guessing game here with their stats, but it's extremely obvious which numbers pair with which player. So let's jump in, shall we?

That's not exactly a big win for Lamar Jackson, is it? Yes, Jackson missed four games, so that depresses his cumulative stats. Looking at the per-game numbers, Smith still has the edge. Geno leads in passing yardage, 252 to 187. He leads in TDs, 1.76 to 1.42. Even the INTs look better for Geno; while he still trails Lamar, his .65 picks per game are closer to Lamar's .58 than the raw numbers would have you believe. As for accuracy, Jackson is quite accurate. Last season he was on target with 75.4 percent of his passes. Smith was better though, hitting his receivers 78.8 percent of the time. All stats are from the fine folks at pro-football-reference.com, just so you know I'm not making this up in a pro-Geno fever dream.

Don't worry, I didn't forget all those rushing yards Jackson piles up. Like I said, he's a dynamic player; I'm not disputing that for one moment. But were yards on the ground really that much more valuable than the yards he didn't pass for? Jackson ran for 764 yards and three TDs last year. Smith countered with 366 yards and one score. That puts Jackson ahead by 398 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But Smith bested Jackson through the air by 2,040 yards and 13 scores. Yes, Lamar Jackson is a dynamic two-way threat, but not enough to make up for a net loss of 1,642 yards of offense and 11 touchdowns. Thanks, but I'll take Geno Smith's production.

Lamar Jackson has been in decline

That was the first reason - Geno Smith outplayed Lamar Jackson last year. My second reason is that Lamar Jackson hasn't outplayed himself in three years. We got a little mathy earlier by comparing Jackson to Smith. As Drax the Destroyer would say, I'll do you one better. No, I'm not asking why is Lamar Jackson. I will ask, why are people still seeing the 2019 MVP on the field? It's time to compare Jackson to Jackson.

I'll note that Jackson missed five games in each of the last two seasons, so again, on a per-game basis, his counting stats are better than they would appear at first glance. I'm still not sure how he was named to the Pro Bowl in 2021 over guys like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but that's an argument for the fine people at Stripe Hype and Buffalowdown to make. I got enough on my plate as it is.

Okay, back to Jackson and his performance since his MVP season. It isn't simply that he hasn't been the same player; he hasn't come close to the production he gave the Ravens in 2019. He came the closest in 2020 and still dropped by almost 400 yards passing and 10 passing scores. He threw three more picks and even ran for 200 fewer yards. His decline continued in 2021 and 2022.

Compared to his 2021 season, he practically fell off a cliff in those years. He threw 36 TDs in 15 games in 2019, then just 33 in 24 games combined the past two years. Jackson's INTs climbed from only 6 in his MVP year to 13 in 2021 and 7 last year - remember, he played in three fewer games last season. Yes, he can still run, but not as much, or as well. In 2021 he averaged 80.4 yards per game and a phenomenal 6.9 yards per carry. In 2021 those numbers were 63.9 and 5.8. Last year he averaged 63.7 yards per game but did get his average per attempt back up to a stellar 6.8.

Listen, I'm not saying Lamar Jackson is done; far from it. But I don't exactly see a huge upward trend pointing to a return to his MVP form, either. Most troubling of all is the fact that he's missed five games now in each of the past two seasons. His playing style makes him more susceptible to injury than most QBs as well. He runs more than Michael Vick, RG3, Cam Newton, or any quarterback you care to name. Heck, I bet he even runs more on average than Peyton Manning. Sorry, I was just checking if you were paying attention. In short, I don't see Jackson returning to that incredibel MVP form.

The Seahawks would never pay Jackson what he wants

Now we come to the biggest reason I believe the Seahawks are better off without Jackson: money. It's hardly a secret that he asked the Ravens to trade him. It wasn't much of a surprise that he requested the trade, either. Baltimore could have negotiated a contract extension with him before last season but chose not to. The single biggest reason for that is the idiocy of the Cleveland Browns ownership.

No, I'm not talking about their belief that Johnny Football was an NFL quarterback, although that was pretty laughable. I'm referring to the ridiculous contract the Browns gave to QB Deshaun Watson. For now, I'll ignore the stench of his off-field issues and stick to the issue of his dollars. The problem isn't that the Browns gave him $230 million. The problem is they guaranteed every last penny of it. What's even more incredible is the contract includes language that Watson won't forfeit any money due to any future suspensions, per spotrac.com. Uh, sure, smart move, boys.

Here's where the issue relates to Jackson and the Seahawks. Jackson reportedly wants his contract guaranteed as well. Not just the first year, like Kirk Cousins (on a one-year contract) or Geno Smith, whose signing bonus and 2023 salary are guaranteed. No, Jackson reportedly wants the Watson treatment - not the alleged assaults which Watson vehemently denies, but for which he still accepted the suspension. Sorry, I was going to leave that bit out. Ah well.

Let me be very clear here; the issue with the guaranteed money isn't that Lamar Jackson is going to go off the deep end and do something stupid. No, the risk in his case is strictly on the field. It's ludicrous to guarantee the entirety of a multi-year contract in a sport that sees so many career-changing and career-ending injuries. The Seahawks avoided a huge payout to their QB when they traded Russell Wilson. Yes, Jackson is much younger, and definitely much better at this point in their respective careers. But the Hawks got one of the off-season's best bargains with their deal to keep Geno Smith in town. It certainly wouldn't make sense to move Smith to acquire Jackson now. But it never made sense for them to go after Jackson. He won't be a headache, but his contract will be. Seattle made the right decision, both on and off the field.