The Seattle Seahawks have managed to get their running back group down to two. This means they are taking a running back in the 2023 NFL draft, right? I mean, Seattle has to add more running backs and what better way to do that than get young and talented backs in the draft?
The way the NFL seems to view running backs as a something close to a kicker or punter nowadays. Sure, those positions are valuable in the short term but do they really make the difference long-term between wins and losses? Hmmm...maybe not so much, thinks the NFL. But let us review this way of thought.
During the 2022 season, of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, five ranked in the top eight rushing teams in the league. Two of those - the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles - were in the NFC Championship game. The point is, while the NFL overall poo-poos running backs, those guys often make the difference between winning and losing important football games.
Seahawks taking running back Bijan Robinson in 2023 NFL draft makes sense
And as we all know, while there is a bit of hyperbole over how much, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll likes to run the ball a bit. Seattle throws the ball more than it runs, but Carroll understands that running the ball effectively is still very important. This is why there must be a reason for the madness of Seattle only having two truly effective backs on its current roster. That reason is that Seattle is going to draft one or three running backs in the 2023 draft, I assume.
One back that would have gone a lot higher in the draft 30 years ago but might fall deep into the first round or beyond now is Texas RB Bijan Robinson. Robinson has ideal size - he is 6-foot and 220 pounds - for a Seattle running back, he is capable of catching passes, and he is very athletic for his size. Robinson makes tacklers miss and does so with ease. So even though Seattle has Kenneth Walker III, it makes sense to add Robinson too. Here is why.
Sign 1: Seahawks combination of Robinson and Walker would be deadly
The Seahawks have had to learn over recent years, unfortunately, that their running backs can get injured so much that they are left with backups of backups to start games. In 2022, Tony Jones, Jr. had to take significant snaps in a games because almost every other Seattle running back had been hurt. The situation was clearly not ideal.
But as we enter 2023, the only backs Seattle has on its roster as of right now are Walker, DeeJay Dallas, and Darwin Thompson. Thompson hasn't produced a statistic since 2020 so any reliance on him would be purely from a "we have literally no one left" kind of thing. Dallas is a solid backup but hasn't shown he is ready to take on many snaps as RB1 for consecutive games. This leaves only Walker that has proven he is capable of leading a rushing attack, but he still needs help.
Walker is an excellent back with breakaway speed. The problem is he isn't overly big. He is 5'9" and 210 pounds. That is fine for now but Seattle wants Walker to be good for years. One way to do that is to limit his punishment and keep him fresh. Adding another talented running back is a good way to keep Walker clean.
No matter if Seattle chooses Robinson or not in the draft, the Seahawks are very likely to take at least one running back in April. Since they going to do that, why not choose Robinson? That way both Walker and Robinson will stay fresh and should be hugely productive.
Sign 2: Seahawks are keeping RB group low seemingly intentionally
Seattle has let Travis Homer, Tony Jones, Jr., and Rashaad Penny leave in free agency. That is a lot of players to watch leave with no real plan as to who will take their place. As far as Jones, Jr. goes, he didn't play that much but he still had decent size and didn't turn the ball over. As far as Homer, he was always going to be a backup but the Seahawks assumed he would gain 3-4 yards every run and knew what they were getting.
Penny is the biggest loss, and not only because he could be explosive when healthy. But if Penny were to return in 2023 he would truly be the backup and likely (hopefully?) stay more healthy due to fewer reps. But Seattle didn't seem to want him back as Penny left for the Eagles for just $1,350,000 and only a $100,000 signing bonus. The Seahawks could have easily paid that.
Basically, Seattle not bringing Penny back at such a reduced salary means they have other plans, it seems. Keeping only Walker and Dallas and one other back is clearly not an option. If Pete Carroll hasn't learned that he needs at least four running backs, and more like five, after seeing so many recent years of RBs being injured and having to fall to a fifth option to get serious reps then something is wrong.
Seattle signed many defensive players in free agency and a center in free agency, but no running backs. So many left, however. This would lead to the logical conclusion that the Seahawks are going to take at least two running backs in the 2023 draft and one of those should be Robinson.
Sign 3: Seahawks could go with two RB1s
Seattle re-signed quarterback Geno Smith for a reason: He was good in 2022. But surely Seattle doesn't want Smith to win games solely through the air. Smith might be more of a game manager than a QB who throws as much as, say, Tom Brady. Plus, Smith's veteran calm is what makes him so special for Seattle.
It could be that while the Seahawks are very good at wide receiver - at least, the top two receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett - they are going to use the draft to get younger at running back and that means fresher legs at the position and players who want to prove themselves. Robinson would be the perfect fit there.
Robinson is projected to be picked anywhere from pick 6 overall (which seems ridiculous) to pick 30 in many mocks. CBS Sports even has Robinson picked to go to Seattle at pick 20. And CBS Sports' reasoning is good. That is, Penny is gone, and Seattle's offense missed Walker when he missed some time after being banged up. Why not choose Robinson to be a one-two punch with Walker?
There is no real reason for Seattle to not take Robinson if he is available at pick 20. Sure, the Seahawks need a WR3 and linebackers and maybe a cornerback, but they need an RB2 just as much. And if Seattle takes Robinson they will have two young potentially very good running backs for the next three seasons at least. This seems to be what the Seahawks might be proceeding toward.