I almost feel bad for Russell Wilson. He isn't a bad person in terms of committing crimes including domestic violence situations, but he does let his ego go uncontrolled sometimes, and that gets him in professional trouble. But after two years with the Denver Broncos, Wilson, the best quarterback in Seattle Seahawks history, is likely about to be let by the Broncos.
Seattle might be looking for a new quarterback in 2024. Does that mean the team should entertain brining Wilson back as QB1 in Seattle? Absolutely not.
I understand the desire of some 12s to do so. The memories of a Russell Wilson comeback, or him making a ridiculously productive play by scrambling around and finding Tyler Lockett or Doug Baldwin, or the beauty of his deep passes are still fresh. Wilson did great things in Seattle, though the team overall got worse when the offense was changed to allow Wilson to throw more which coincided with the defense digressing.
Seattle Seahawks do not need to bring Russell Wilson back
We also should not forget how Wilson left. He was traded because he was no longer a team-first player. He became a me-first player and he reportedly went to Seahawks chairperson Jody Allen in an attempt to get general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll fired. Instead, the Seahawks fired Wilson. Seattle traded Wilson to the Broncos for a bevy of draft picks and a handful of players.
In the 2022 season that followed, Wilson separated himself from the rest of the Broncos by having his own office at Denver headquarters and wanting to run the offense more than he wanted to allow head coach Nathaniel Hackett to do so. The result was Hackett getting fired during the season, Wilson having the worst year of his career, and Denver gifting the Seahawks with a high draft pick because of the Broncos' terrible record.
Sean Payton simply wants Russell Wilson gone
Sean Payton took over as head coach in Denver and immediately made clear who was in charge: Payton. Wilson would play the way Payton wanted or Wilson would not play. Wilson's own office with the Broncos? Gone. And soon, so will Wilson.
Denver is benching Wilson for the last two games of this season. They appear almost certain of eating the $85 million in dead cap that the team has because of signing Wilson to an extension before Payton came to the organization. Payton wants Wilson gone so bad, he doesn't care how much money it cost.
Russell Wilson will need a new home this coming offseason most likely. But while there have been a bunch of unofficial polls posted on social media about whether the Seahawks should bring Wilson back to Seattle, and in some polls almost 25 percent of 12s say Seattle should, the most logical, non-emotional, answer is "no." Seattle should not bring back Wilson.
One is that Wilson will be 36 years old in 2024 and if Seattle is going to make a change from Geno Smith, the change needs to be to a younger quarterback who can hopefully be the franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future. At least 8 years or so, one would hope. That means drafting a quarterback. Many 12s already comment about Geno Smith simply being a bridge to Seattle's next long-term quarterback, but so would Wilson.
Russell Wilson would likely cost too much money
The other aspect is money. Smith is currently signed through 2025 and his deal pays him $31.2 million next season. While that may be a lot of money to you and me, for a veteran NFL starting quarterback that is extremely cheap. Wilson might still be getting paid by the Broncos for the next two years, but that doesn't mean he won't want another team to pay him a lot of money too. Wilson was reported already offered a chance to take a salary decrease to avoid being benched in Denver and he refused (which is 100 percent his right).
Wilson is in the same kind of situation that Derek Carr was last year when Carr was with the Raiders. Plus, both quarterbacks were replaced late in their seasons by Jarrett Stidham. Weird, right? Carr ended up signing with the New Orleans Saints in free agency for four years and $150 million, $100 million of which is guaranteed. Even though Carr's team gave up on him, another team was happy to sign him to a big contract.
Carr is three years younger than Wilson, but Wilson has also still had the more successful career to the age difference gets balanced out. We have also seen some quarterbacks play pretty well into their late 30s, though most of them, such as Tom Brady, have been more classic drop-back passers whereas Wilson is not. At his best, Wilson was most dangerous because he could use his legs to escape. He is less capable of that now. That does not mean a team isn't going to offer him Derek Carr-like money, though.
The Seahawks definitely should not do that. Why bust up what little they have in cap space in 2024 - around $10 million including what should roll over from unused cap in 2023 - on an aging quarterback who was no better in 2022 than Geno Smith? Smith was good last year - first in the NFL in completion percentage and led the NFC in touchdown passes - and Wilson was not.
Seahawks need to look toward the future and not the past
Sure, Wilson's raw numbers are much better in 2023. It is easy to point out his 26 touchdown passes and just 8 interceptions with a quarterback rating of 98.0, seventh-best in the league. But there are also several reasons Sean Payton wants to move on from Wilson. He still takes far too many bad sacks while holding on to the ball too long and Wilson is still horrible in terms of clock management.
In Seattle, he often waited until the very last seconds on the play clock before snapping the ball. He might do that worse in Denver. Doing that puts more pressure on the offense than the defense because the defense is simply reacting to what the offense does no matter when the ball is snapped.
There is also overall QBR incorporating such things as throwing distance, sacks, fumbles, designed runs, and scrambles. Regarding QBR, Wilson falls from seventh in raw passer rating to 21st. Geno Smith, who ranks 14th in the league in QBR, has a better QBR in 2023 (57.7) than does Wilson (50.6).
Wilson was far from perfect in Seattle and those issues, such as holding on to the ball too long, are still part of his play. The simple fact is that the Seahawks won't be better with Wilson and would most likely be paying him far too much to not offer any improvement for the team overall. While Russell Wilson does bring up memories of a nice Seahawks past, the team needs to look toward a Wilson-less future and draft a quarterback who can play a year behind Smith before taking over.