John Schneider has never been one to take big risks when it comes to free agency. Things look different this year, as he rolled the dice with the three biggest names he brought to the Seattle Seahawks for the 2025 season. We all want to know, will the Hawks come up as winners?
It's pretty comical that just seven days ago, I wrote that the Seahawks were all about shoring up the defense and ignored the offensive side of the ball. Since then, Schneider addressed that side after all. The Hawks signed quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Cooper Kupp, along with wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling and offensive tackle Josh Jones. Two of those are big names. I'm sure you can figure out who's who.
Jones is basically insurance for Abe Lucas and can step in at guard, too. He signed a pretty low one-year deal, so no worries there. Valdes-Scantling is also on a one-year deal for less than $6 million. Again, that's not exactly a high-risk contract for the Hawks. If the success of the 2025 season rides on either of these guy's shoulders, the Seahawks are in much worse shape than we thought.
Seahawks could reap the rewards or take a major step back with these three players
As for the first two players I mentioned, that's a different story. Throw in the recent signing of defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, and you have three guys who could make a huge difference for Seattle this season. It all depends on which version we'll see from each player.
DeMarcus Lawrence
Let's start with Lawrence. Mike Macdonald is pretty darn happy about adding the four-time Pro Bowler to his defensive front. Coming off an injury at the age of 33, Lawrence is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player. He had three sacks and nine pressures in just four games last year. Those sack numbers are great, projecting to 12 over a full season.
Unfortunately, we can't say the same for the total pressures. Lawrence notched 39 and 43 hurries in 2023 and 2022, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Last year, he only had four, or 16, over a full season. He also missed 33 percent of his tackles, twice his normal rate.
He played all 34 games in 2022 and 2023 and earned Pro Bowl honors in both seasons. If the Seahawks get that edition of Lawrence, they're in great shape. However, he missed 10 games in 2021 and those 13 last season. That version of Lawrence would be a costly mistake, even if he doesn't pan out and the Hawks move on after a year.
Cooper Kupp
After the Seahawks traded DK Metcalf to the Steelers, the wide receiver room looked a bit bleak. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the number one guy, but suddenly, Jake Bobo was in the spotlight as the number 2 receiver in Seattle. I'd still start him above the inconsistent Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the Hawks had a better plan in place.
Enter one of the most productive receivers of the past several years, Cooper Kupp. We can't expect him to repeat his insane production of 2021 when he caught 145 passes for over 1900 yards. Honestly, if new OC Klint Kubiak gives anyone 191 targets, he needs to be fired. But as a reliable number 2 receiver, I love the addition of the former Washington State star.
However... it's also true that Kupp hasn't played a full season since that spectacular All-Pro season. He missed five games in 2024 and 2023 and just managed to take the field for nine contests in 2022. There's been considerable discussion that Schneider made the wrong move by signing the former Lambs - sorry, Rams player. Instead of replacing Metcalf, he signed a replacement for Tyler Lockett.
Well, okay. But the idea that Kupp and JSN play the same role and can't coexist is ludicrous. As Brock Huard said in a recent Brock and Salk show, "I think you will see more JSN there [at flanker], and then you’ll see Kupp in his natural spot in the slot where he’s going to be physical and he’s going to block and he’s going to do all those things.” Kubiak can play a lot of mix-and-match with these two.
If the Hawks run a lot of 12 formation sets - two tight ends and two wide receivers, as the Saints did under Kubiak - that could limit Kupp's snaps to a reasonable 60 - 70 percent of offensive downs. I'd much prefer 17 games of Kupp than 7, and keeping his snap counts well under the Rams' usage - about 91 percent - would go a long way to making that happen. If his three-year deal gives Seattle an out in 2026, so much the better.
Sam Darnold
I'm so leery of this deal. Yes, he had a much better season than Geno Smith last year - but that was Darnold's only good season of his career. His best year until then was a six-game stint for the Panthers in 2022. That was his only season with a passer rating above 90 until his breakout season with the Vikings. Even last year, Smith performed better than Darnold in some key areas. Geno had a lower percentage of bad throws and a higher percentage of on-target passes.
Yes, Smith threw those gawd-awful red zone picks. But let's not pretend that Darnold wasn't hideous in the final game of the season against the Lions. With a win, Minnesota would have been the top seed in the NFC. Instead, Darnold was held to 166 yards passing and a completion rate of 44 percent. He wasn't much better versus the Rams in the wildcard round loss. The Vikings were only held to less than 20 points once all year. Then, in those two most critical games, they scored just nine in each.
Now consider the environment each player worked in. I think by now that most 12s realize that the Seahawks offensive line has been a train wreck for a few years. Pro Football Focus rated the Hawks pass-blocking at 59.8, 26th in the league. The Vikes weren't exactly world-beaters at 67.9, but that placed them far ahead of Seattle, at 18th. So what happens when Darnold has to play behind the turnstile that's currently installed at guard for Seattle?
Happily, the Seahawks can part ways with Darnold if they need to after just one year. Of course, I hope that the Hawks' new quarterback plays as well as he did through the first 16 games of 2024. Unless Seattle makes some drastic upgrades to their offensive line, Sam may follow the fate of a high-priced one-year wonder from the Seahawks past. If two of the three high-risk, high-reward players work out, 12s should be happy.