The Seattle Seahawks made a bold move this offseason, trading receiver DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were already losing franchise stalwart Tyler Lockett as his age continued to show. Conventional wisdom said that with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, they could put together an effective passing attack with two very good receivers.
But losing Metcalf meant Seattle would be leaning considerably on Smith-Njigba as he was coming off a 100-catch, 1,130-yard, six-touchdown season. General manager John Schneider had faith. Head coach Mike Macdonald had faith. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had faith. And JSN has rewarded that faith as he is currently on pace for 1,966 yards, which would set a new NFL record.
Smith-Njigba’s incredible pace, stacked on his solid rookie season and fantastic sophomore campaign, will have him poised to join the upper echelons of the NFL’s best-paid wide receivers. But how high is high? Can JSN match Ja’Marr Chase’s record $40 million APY?
Can Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba match Ja'Marr Chases contract?
You can think of NFL contracts similarly to the housing market. Each price is set by similar sales in the area. To find the best projection for JSN, it’s best to find solid comps from previous receivers.
I decided to start with an organizational comp to see how Schneider has valued high-end receivers in the past. Luckily, there is a solid starting point from just three years ago with Metcalf.
In 2022, Schneider signed Metcalf after his third season in the league. The contract was for three years and $72 million, with $31 million guaranteed, according to overthecap.com. Against a salary cap that year of $208.2 million salary cap that year, Metcalf’s $24 million average per year (APY) salary was 11.5% of the salary cap.
Here is how JSN’s first three years production* compared to Metcalf’s.
*This analysis assumes that Smith-Njigba’s 2025 continues at his pace through Week 10.
Player | Draft Round | Age | 3-yr Rec | 3-yr Yds | 3-yr TD | 3-yr yds/rr | 2-yr Rec | 2-yr Yds | 2-yr TD | 2-yr yds/rr | PY Rec | PY Yds | PY TD | PY yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ('23-'25) | 1 | 24.5 | 282 | 3721 | 19 | 2.44 | 219 | 3096 | 15 | 2.94 | 119 | 1966 | 9 | 4.61 |
DK Metcalf ('19-'21) | 2 | 24.7 | 211 | 3170 | 29 | 1.91 | 158 | 2270 | 22 | 2.01 | 75 | 967 | 12 | 1.94 |
JSN consistently outperforms Metcalf in most volume stats, as well as efficiency (yards per route run), with Metcalf proving to be the more prolific scorer. The case can be made that he, at least, should get a comparable valuation.
Applying Metcalf’s 11.5% APY as a percent of cap to a forecasted $300 million salary cap in 2026 yields a $34.5 million APY and would make Smith-Njigba the third-highest paid receiver in the NFL behind only Chase and Justin Jefferson.
External comps
While Schneider may want to use Metcalf as the comp, Smith-Njigba’s representation may want to look outside the Seahawks' history to push that number even higher. Using a three-year time horizon, his production looks extremely similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2021-2023.
Player | Draft Round | Age | Rec | Catch Rate | Yds | yds/rr | TD | YAC | YAC/rec | Slot % | MTF % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ('23-'25) | 1 | 24.5 | 286 | 74.45% | 3773 | 2.42 | 19 | 1341 | 4.68 | 64.71% | 11.48% |
Amon-Ra St. Brown ('21-'23) | 4 | 24.9 | 315 | 76.46% | 3588 | 2.27 | 21 | 1651 | 5.24 | 67.38% | 10.79% |
St. Brown is also his closest comp over a two-year time horizon. St.Brown’s $30 million APY in 2024 was 11.75% of that year’s cap, which would push JSN’s APY expectation to $35.25 million. That would clear Jefferson and put him only behind Chase in average salary.
They could also cite CeeDee Lamb’s two-year production leading into his 2024 deal.
Player | Draft Round | Age | Rec | Catch Rate | Yds | yds/rr | TD | YAC | YAC/rec | Slot % | MTF % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ('24-'25) | 1 | 24.5 | 223 | 75.81% | 3145 | 2.91 | 15 | 971 | 4.35 | 60.89% | 12.04% |
Amon-Ra St. Brown ('22-'23) | 4 | 24.9 | 225 | 75.76% | 2676 | 2.53 | 16 | 1221 | 5.43 | 60.53% | 11.56% |
CeeDee Lamb ('22-'23) | 1 | 25.4 | 242 | 74.01% | 3108 | 2.59 | 21 | 1171 | 4.84 | 63.42% | 14.05% |
Lamb’s $34 million APY was 13.31% of the cap, the same year ARSB signed. If JSN could successfully make Lamb the comp, it would put his applied APY at $39.93 million - just spitting distance from Chase.
Speaking of Ja’Marr Chase
Smith-Njigba’s 2025 has been stellar and record-setting. But his scoring production is still half of what Chase did just last year. That’s going to hurt him in negotiations. And it’s not a one-year aberration.
In general, he hasn’t kept up with his contemporaries when it comes to getting into the end zone. And stacking up against last year’s triple crown winner, there isn’t enough of a case for him to clear Chase in my opinion.
Player | Draft Round | Age | Rec | Yds | TD | yds/rr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon-Smith Njigba (2025) | 1 | 24.5 | 119 | 1966 | 9 | 4.41 |
Ja'Marr Chase (2024) | 1 | 25.5 | 127 | 1708 | 17 | 2.41 |
With these parameters in place, I could see a compromised position of splitting St. Brown’s and Lamb’s APYs as a percent of cap. That’s 12.5% and puts his APY at $37.5 million.
Years and guaranteed money
While Metcalf kept his extension at just three years, I would imagine Schneider will want a fourth year to make JSN the clear-cut second-highest paid receiver and sixth-highest non-quarterback in the league.
That would put the total new money at $150 million while making the total new contract six years (including the fourth year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option, which I am assuming will come in at the one Pro Bowl rate) and $177,087,996. Amazingly, that would keep his effective APY under $30 million per year.
The structure will be interesting. Seattle will be hard-pressed to follow the Metcalf deal because of JSN’s option being factored in. Instead, they will have to use the current contemporaries. $67.5 million fully guaranteed, with a total guarantee at $105 million, would be fair compared to the other highest-paid receivers in the NFL.
It would be wise for Schneider to get this done this offseason, because if he doesn’t, the price will only go up.