Drew Lock is expected to play for Sam Darnold when the Seattle Seahawks take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. A chance still exists that it doesn't happen because Lock has been dealing with an elbow issue in his throwing arm. Assuming he plays, and no matter how well he does, he isn't taking Darnold's spot long-term.
Some quarterbacks might, but not Drew Lock. Some might have a bit of fun speculating about how the situation would unfold, but it won't. Darnold is having a fairly terrible season, and his new quad injury might linger for a bit, but the team isn't going to forget that he won a Super Bowl just last season.
Let's say that Lock wins on Sunday, and maybe he even follows that up with a victory over an improved Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 10. At the bye week in Week 11, Lock would have gone 4-0, taking the majority of QB1 reps (he entered Week 1 after the first drive of the game, after Darnold had hurt his glute), and Darnold would have started 2-4.
Seattle Seahawks shouldn't expect Drew Lock to replace Sam Darnold at quarterback long-term
In reality, Lock would have won two of his games against the Arizona Cardinals. Week 1 was won because of an epic defensive performance against the New England Patriots, and who knows what would have happened in Week 10 against Vegas.
That isn't to diminish what Lock did in the first two games. Importantly, he did what Darnold hasn't done: Played mistake-free football, allowing the team overall to get the win instead of the quarterback having to carry the Seahawks. That is what Darnold did much of last season, and he hasn't replicated this year.
But Lock supplanting Darnold would be a fairly knee-jerk reaction that forgets everything about the past couple of seasons, and NFL teams don't normally work that way. The Seahawks definitely don't. Seattle hopes Lock is a star for as long as he starts. Darnold will be QB1 when he returns.
Lock, who is a fantastic teammate and a free agent next season, hasn't had much of a history of high-end success. He hasn't been a full-time starter since 2020, mostly because of inconsistency and his own issues with having turnovers. His career interception percentage is 2.8, less than Darnold's, but mostly because of Darnold's higher rate in his first four seasons.
Darnold is signed through 2027. Lock might look for other employment after this season. That will also have a bearing on the current quarterback situation.
The Seattle Seahawks shouldn't choose to sign Lock to an expensive extension next year. The team needs to use that money for other positions, such as an edge rusher. Lock isn't going to be the long-term starter in Seattle, and he should be paid as if he were.
General manager John Schneider isn't going to make a poor financial decision based on a handful of games this season. Head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Brian Fleury aren't going to make the same decision about who the starter is at quarterback using the same criteria.
Fans might hope that turns out to be true, but it's not realistic. Teams don't ride the hot hand at quarterback if there is already a clear QB1 in place. When Sam Darnold is healthy again, he will start. Let's just hope that he plays better when he returns than he did in the first half of this season.
More pressing, Seahawks fans need to hope that Lock is healthy enough to make all the throws he needs to in Week 9. Darnold is definitely out. Lock remains limited in practice with the elbow problem. By the end of the Cardinals game, Jalen Milroe might be playing quarterback.
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