You know that old quote about regret? How, at the end of the day, will you regret the things you didn’t do more than the things you did? It is designed to encourage us all not to be so afraid of new things. To take chances. I’m not sure Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdoanld is a fan of that quote.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) recently published statistics on which teams were most and least aggressive on fourth downs over the past five years. The results challenge the notion that to win in the NFL, you have to be bold.
I’m sure you have heard many announcers compliment a coach’s decision to attempt an unlikely fourth-down conversion because it somehow “shows his team that he believes in them.”
Where do the Seattle Seahawks rank in fourth-down aggressiveness?
Really? That’s what it takes to gain your team’s belief? The numbers, imperfect as they may be, suggest otherwise.
Here’s what the data says.
The five teams that have attempted the fewest fourth-down conversions between 2021 and 2025 have won 60% of their games in that time span. The five teams that attempted the most conversions are a virtual inversion, having won just under 40% of their games.
To be clear, there is a chicken-and-egg element to these numbers. Bad teams fall behind in games and are forced to go for it on fourth down. It may not be their choice. The data does not specify whether these attempts come early or late in a contest.
Still, those numbers are staggeringly disproportionate. It is hard to imagine that the discrepancy is entirely situational. It seems far more likely that it is related to some degree to coaching philosophy.
The Seattle Seahawks, under Pete Carroll and Mike Macdonald, have attempted the fewest fourth-down conversions in the NFL since 2021. They have a record of 49-36 and one championship. The teams that follow them – San Francisco, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City – all boast winning records, multiple playoff appearances, and a couple more championships.
Of the teams at the top of the list – the ones that go for it on fourth down the most – only Detroit has a winning record over the five years in question. They are first on the list.
The other teams in the top five – Cleveland, Carolina, the New York Giants, and Chicago – all have losing records, and just a few playoff appearances between them. Needless to say, none has gotten within shouting distance of a Super Bowl.
Detroit’s coach, Dan Campbell, has become the poster child for aggressive play-calling. And he has clearly had success with it. But these numbers suggest he is at most an outlier. At worst, he is actually doing his team a disservice. Perhaps the Lions would be even more successful if Campbell pulled back a little bit.
We can’t know that. But we can know that successful teams in general are not reckless when it comes to fourth downs. In Seattle’s case, this obviously cannot be entirely attributed to Macdonald. Pete Carroll was the coach in three of the five seasons covered by this data.
It is possible that last season, Macdonald looked to offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak for advice when making this type of decision. But this still remains the head coach's call. That doesn't figure to change this season under a less-experienced coordinator like Brian Fleury.
It is pretty apparent what they have in common. Both are defensive-minded coaches. Both have emphasized building a great defensive unit. There is a common belief that coaches such as Carroll and Macdonald, by their nature, are more inclined to veer toward conservative offenses and lean heavily on their defenses. That appears to be what has happened in Seattle since 2021.
But three of the other coaches in the bottom five – Kyle Shanahan, Zac Taylor, and Andy Reid – are offensive guys known for their inventive play-calling. Except Campbell, the other teams at the top of this list have had too much coaching turnover – remember that cumulative record? – to draw much of a conclusion.
Except maybe this. Going for it or not going for it is a very situation-specific decision. It isn’t a question of general philosophy. It’s a question of whether you think you can convert in a particular game scenario. It’s a question of risk-reward.
Maybe you wouldn’t typically go for a fourth-and-short, but you know the other team's stud defensive tackle is out of the game and that tilts the odds your way.
Maybe you feel like you could convert, but the ball is on your own 26-yard line, and risk-reward just doesn’t make sense.
The best coaches don’t make aggressive or conservative decisions. They make smart decisions. Seattle’s two head coaches ranked second in making the “smart” decision, based on PFF’s own formula. Buffalo, another very successful team, ranked first.
There is no one-size-fits-all for this. Several other teams that made the “right” decision still had poor results. But in Seattle’s case, this seems obvious. Mike Macdonald has constructed a powerhouse defense that he feels he can trust.
He is going to err on the side that allows them to do their thing. That might mean a little less in terms of high-stakes drama on fourth down. But it is also going to mean more winning.
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