The Seattle Seahawks' offense is going to look very different this year. As all good 12s know, that's a very good thing, as Seattle's offense ranked 18th last year. One player in particular could unlock the full potential of this team.
Since the day he was hired, new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has repeatedly said that his offense will represent a sea change from what Ryan Grubb or Shane Waldron ran before him. Considering that Seattle only cracked the top 10 in points scored once in the past four years, it's time to sing the Hallelujah chorus.
Okay, he didn't literally say sea change, but you get the idea. We can expect Seattle to run the ball more often and more effectively in 2025 than they have in several years. The Seahawks ranked 29th in rushing attempts last year and 31st in 2024. The last time they ranked in the top 10 was in 2019.
That's about to change. Even more importantly, Kubiak has shown that he'll channel his offense, both in the running and passing game, through one key player. And he certainly has the right guy to make that happen this year.
Kenneth Walker III can power the Seattle Seahawks offense to new heights
Kubiak has never shied away from using his running backs in the passing game. When he was the Vikings' OC in 2021, Justin Jefferson saw 167 targets. I love Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he isn't quite at Jefferson's level, and neither is anyone else in Seattle's receiver room. Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn added another 170, while TE Tyler Conklin had 87.
His running backs still got 118 targets. Dalvin Cook was the main recipient of Kubiak's largess, as he averaged 64 targets per a 17-game season, a bit more than his 57-target average. The telling stat is that third-year back, Alexander Mattison previously averaged 13.8 targets per 100 rushing attempts. Under Kubiak, he got 29 targets per 100 rushes.
Once Minnesota realized he could catch, they kept it up, even after Kubiak left. Mattison has been targeted 29 times per 100 carries the past two seasons.
Last year, Kubiak served as the Saints' OC. Alvin Kamara had long been established as a great receiver out of the backfield. He averaged 108.1 targets per 17 games last year, just a tick above his previous average of 107.6. Hardly any change at all.
Again, the interesting stat is how much more often Kubiak targeted backs who hadn't seen as many opportunities before. It's a small sample, but Jordan Mims saw 20 targets and only had 20 carries. Even when the differences are minimal, Kubiak always gets his running backs more targets than they previously had.
Under Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks threw the ball 593 times. 569 of those were credited as targeted to specific receivers. The running backs got 110 of those. or 19.3 percent. Kubiak targeted his running back stable 25.3 percent in New Orleans. Another reason to expect Kubiak to target the backs more often in Seattle.
Which brings us to Kenneth Walker III. Dalvin Cook was a fine receiver out of the backfield. He caught 76.9 percent of his targets with a 45.8 percent success rate. As defined by Pro Football Reference, those are passes that gain 40 percent of the yards needed for a first down, 60 percent for second down, and every inch needed on third or fourth down.
Alvin Kamara is known as one of the top receiving backs ever. He's pulled down 78.7 percent of his targets with a success rate of 46.4 percent. As for our guy K9, he matches up just fine. His career catch percentage is 81.6, while his success rate is 46.4 percent.
Last year, he blew those numbers out of the water, catching 86.8 percent of his targets with a success rate of 54.7 percent. Kamara has only topped those numbers once in his eight-year career, while Cook has only topped Walker's success rate once.
Yes, Zach Charbonnet has been a fine receiver out of the backfield as well. But he's not as dynamic as his running mate. Charbonnet had 42 catches last year, converting them into one score and six first downs. Walker nabbed 46 balls, had one TD, but added 19 first downs. Walker is far more explosive and dynamic than Charbonnet, or rookie Damien Martinez, for that matter.
Walker has looked fantastic in camp so far. We all know what a healthy K9 can do. He can turn a checkdown into a game-changer on any given play. If you need a reminder, you need look no further, my friends.
The numbers behind @Kenneth_Walker9's 64-yard touchdown.#GoHawks x @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/pLBVF9qiVJ
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 16, 2023
Per Gregg Bell in The News Tribune, Kubiak made it clear that he sees Walker taking on a huge role for the Seahawks this season: “Obviously, whatever we can do to get him touches, throwing him routes out of the backfield, throwing him screens, get the ball in their hands...looking forward to him in this scheme.”
When you have a talent like Kenneth Walker III, you run the offense through him as often as possible.