By now, you’ve probably read several hundred “keys to the game” articles about Super Bowl LX. I know I have. Most of them devote a great deal of time to the quarterbacks on the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Will Sam Darnold make a major mistake at a crucial moment? Will Drake Maye’s inexperience cause him to crumble in the face of the NFL's most complex defense?
Those are certainly legit questions, but I think I know the answers to both. Darnold may indeed make a mistake or two, but he will overcome it with some very good plays. Maye will look befuddled at times, but he will use his legs to rescue drives that seemed dead. I believe that’s what will happen because that is what we have all seen happen in the games leading up to Super LX.
But there are some other questions about whose answers I am much less certain. And I think those answers may determine the outcome of the game to a greater degree than the broader ones about “will the QBs play well?” Here’s what I’ll be looking at early on Sunday.
Three questions that will determine if the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots hoist the Lombardi Trophy
Which offensive line interior will play better?
If there is a weakness on either offense, it shows up in the middle of the line. And both defenses are very strong in the middle. That places a great deal of pressure on the center and guards of each team.
For New England, no one will be worried about right guard Mike Onwenu, but left guard Jared Wilson and center Garrett Bradbury will be facing a gargantuan challenge. Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, and Jarran Reed are difficult enough for any lineman to handle.
Throw in the wrinkles that Mike Macdonald and Aden Durde are sure to devise – where a linebacker or safety may delay a blitz from off the line, and this promises to be New England’s greatest physical and mental test.
On the other side of the ball, I suspect Grey Zabel and Jalen Sundell will be solid against New England’s tough front seven. But how well will right guard Anthony Bradford hold up in pass protection? Bradford has been a strong run blocker much of the year, but has struggled on passing downs. He’ll be looking at Milton Williams and Christian Barmore much of the game.
Seattle will no doubt give him some help from Sundell or a tight end on some plays, but if he ever has to take on Williams one-on-one, Bradford’s ability to give Sam Darnold a clean pocket will be vital. Expect the Pats to attack the middle all game long.
Will Josh Jobe rise to the occasion?
Seattle’s secondary is full of superb athletic playmakers. If there is a weak link, it is cornerback Josh Jobe. He has made a remarkable journey from UDFA to practice squad fill-in to legit starter on a Super Bowl contender. He has elevated his coverage skills and tackling to fit in with the best secondary in the NFL.
But he will be tested on Sunday. Seattle plays a lot of zone defense, but there will be times when Jobe finds himself matched up one-on-one with either Steffan Diggs or Kayshon Boutte. Both receivers are capable of making big plays at a moment’s notice. Patriots’ OC Josh McDaniels will be looking for ways to isolate his outside receivers on Jobe throughout the game.
Seattle has excellent depth and will be able to support Jobe if he struggles. Riq Woolen, despite his disastrous two-play sequence in the conference championship game, has been playing very well of late. And Seattle can roll out four safeties, all of whom can make plays in coverage.
But Jobe’s success or failure at locking down his man on any given play will go a long way toward determining just how disruptive the Seahawks’ defense can be.
Will Seattle put a spy on Drake Maye?
It will be awfully tempting for Mike Macdonald to devote one of his very talented back-seven defenders to spying on Drake Maye in an effort to shut down his very dangerous running ability. Before his ankle sprain in the middle of the week, rookie Nick Emmanwori seemed ideally suited to the task.
But there are drawbacks. First and foremost, it removes one player from Macdonald’s complex defense. Would you rather have Emmanwori sitting back and reacting to Drake Maye’s potential scrambles or racing all over the field making tackles and breaking up passes the way he has done most of the season?
Typically, using a spy results in a more passive defense. Seattle, under Mike Macdonald, is not passive. So I doubt they will use one very often.
Because the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage, the threat of Maye running is somewhat offset. The defenders will all have their eyes on the QB throughout the play. Still, Maye is too good an athlete to completely shut down. He will almost certainly make some plays with his legs.
If and when Macdonald does employ a spy, look for it to be disguised – a different player taking the role on various plays. Every single member of Seattle’s back seven is capable of doing this job. Macdonald will not make it easy for Maye to figure out who it may be on any given down.
I have this totally unfounded suspicion that whenever Ty Okada is on the field, he will always be looking at where Drake Maye is.
So, yes, the QBs are big. Their play will be very important. But if they end up cancelling each other out – and I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening – then some of these lesser-discussed players may end up determining which team hoists the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.