I don’t place much stock in preseason predictions about the Seattle Seahawks, even from analysts whose opinions I respect. There are just too many variables. Too many unknowns.
Of course, that doesn’t stop me from making predictions myself, and sometimes putting them down in print. They tend to be good conversation starters, and every so often, those conversations do educate me. It helps me identify where I may have a blind spot about a player or a team. Sometimes, I even get to brag that I got something right.
For instance, a lot of analysts are predicting a bounce-back year for the San Francisco 49ers. I am not one of them. I see an aging team that will be relying on a lot of new, young players to get back to the Super Bowl contender we have come to expect. I would not be at all surprised if San Fran struggles to reach .500 this season.
How bad could it get for the Seattle Seahawks in 2025?
If I am right about that, trust me, you will hear it. I’m like the golfer who shoots a 92 but will not shut up about that four iron he hit with six feet for par on fourteen. We all promote our successes while conveniently ignoring our misses.
So, even though I have already written predictions for the Seattle Seahawks’ upcoming season – and will probably write a few more as the season draws closer – I am not going to Vegas to bet my kid’s inheritance on any of it. I know predictions can be all over the map.
Still, I was caught off guard by the prediction something called Backyard Breaks made about the Seahawks' upcoming season.
Backyard Breaks divided the NFL into six tiers based on win projections. The top tier – 12+ wins – had Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. Not much surprise there. Maybe omitting Detroit is a reach. The Lions were in the second tier.
As any math major might expect, the tiers formed a rough parabola, with almost half the league in the middle two tiers, and fewer projected to do very well or very badly. The second-to-last tier had five teams and was labelled “5 or Less” wins. The bottom tier, which had just three clubs, was labelled “Could Go Winless.”
Guess where the Seahawks were ranked? In that bottom tier, alongside Cleveland and New Orleans.
Could go winless? Seriously. This is the same team that went 10-7 last year, right? Do you know how many teams in the modern NFL have gone winless one year after having a winning record? That would be zero.
Of course, only five teams have failed to win a game in an entire NFL season since World War II. Two of them were expansion teams, so they didn’t have a “previous season” to consider.
Two others – the 2017 Browns and the strike-shortened 1982 Baltimore Colts – had gone a combined 3-29 the year before going winless. Again, just as a reminder, the Seahawks were 10-7 last year and just missed the playoffs.
The closest analog to a projected winless Seahawks’ squad in 2025 would be the 2007 Detroit Lions. In 2006, the Lions finished 7-9. They also had a youngish, defensive-minded head coach (Rod Marinelli) and questions at quarterback.
But Detroit had also lost seven of their eight final games in 2006 and were basically in free fall. Seattle certainly has plenty of issues, but in case you forgot, they finished last season 6-2 after their bye week. They had some ugly losses and equally ugly wins, but again I have to ask --- Winless?
OK, I don’t want to be closed-minded about this. Seattle does have a new quarterback and a couple new wide receivers. They will be breaking in a new offensive system. There are still questions about the offensive line lingering from last year.
And Mike Macdonald, despite maintaining an even keel and steady hand in his first season as a head coach at any level, has not yet shown he can elevate his team against better opponents.
There are things that could go badly for Seattle this season. I don’t think those things could go badly enough to result in 0-17, but let’s play along with Backyard Breaks for a bit. Here are seven things that could realistically go badly for the Hawks in 2025. Any one of them coming true doesn’t get you to 0-17.
But maybe if four or more of the following things happen, perhaps we could be looking at a nightmare scenario.
Jay Harbaugh continues a mediocre run as special teams coach
Harbaugh was one of the young, relatively inexperienced coaches Macdonald brought in when he cleaned house last year. Macdonald gave Harbaugh a coordinator job despite never even having held a position-level coaching job in the NFL. Seattle’s special teams were mediocre at best.
Except for one kickoff return touchdown (by a player who was cut soon after), Seattle’s return teams ranked toward the bottom of the league.
Fortunately, Harbaugh inherited a good kicker and excellent punter, but both Jason Myers and Michael Dickson had modest seasons by their own standards. The addition of a lot of young talent via the draft – especially Ricky White III – should help, but Harbaugh’s special teams could end up being a net negative for the season.
Riq Woolen continues to slide
The Seahawks have exceptional athletes in the secondary. Devon Witherspoon can play any position. Julian Love and Coby Bryant are gifted, versatile safeties. And rookie Nick Emmanwori could develop into this team’s Kyle Hamilton. But they need strong play from Woolen.
He is the purest perimeter cover corner on the roster, and if he plays as well as he did in his rookie season, this is a formidable secondary.
But he has slid over the past two years. Woolen is still a talented player, but if his coverage grades continue to drift downward, Seattle doesn’t have an obvious solution. It would wipe away a lot of the versatility that Macdonald is building and would make the defense vulnerable to teams like the Rams, who have two high-end wideouts.
Edges fail to perform
I don’t think anyone is worried about the big guys on Seattle’s defense. Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed continue to be productive veterans. Byron Murphy II and Rylie Mills represent the future. Sure, you always want more depth across the line, but the Hawks look to be in good shape up front.
But the edge players, regardless of how you label them, need to match the line’s productivity. And there are nagging questions about all of them. At 33, can DeMarcus Lawrence return from injury and be dominant? Mafe, Nwosu, Hall? Who is going to step up and become the consistent, reliable pass rusher that Macdonald had in Baltimore in Kyle Van Noy and Jadeveon Clowney?
Those big linemen will generate pressure, but if the edges aren’t there to register hurries and sacks, the Hawks defense regresses.
New wide receivers are busts
Metcalf and Lockett out … Kupp and Valdes-Scantling in. Is that an even exchange? If Kupp shows no signs of lingering injuries and avoids the cliff that many receivers fall off when they get well into the 30s, maybe. If MVS cuts back on his drops and makes a big play or two each game, definitely.
But I don’t know if either of things is likely to happen. Apart from rookie Tory Horton, Seattle doesn’t have a lot of depth behind those front liners. If they aren’t making plays, opposing defenses will be able to crowd the line and make the run game that Macdonald and Klint Kubiak hope to prioritize far less effective.
The middle of the offensive line
A huge question mark hovers over right guard. The payers who seem likely to compete for that spot have all had chances – and have not looked very good – in the past. Hawks’ fans are hoping that a new line coach and a new offensive scheme will help revitalize the right guard candidates.
But we can’t simply ignore the rest of the interior. Grey Zabel is highly touted, but he is still a rookie who competed against FCS talent in college. We can’t assume he will be a great player from day one. At center, both potential starters have talent, but neither is having business cards with “NFL Pro Bowler” printed up just yet. The interior of the line should be somewhat better than it was last year, but that is far from a given.
Mike Macdonald loses the team
I don’t think this will happen, but it has to be a consideration. Mike Macdonald’s inexperience may have been revealed through the way he handled his team in the first half of last year. Staffing, personnel, and game management – they all came into question. However, he did not panic and used the bye week – and a roster change or two – to at least partially right the ship.
But when a young coach has a team that is beginning to slide, he may not recognize how to address it. In Seattle’s case, there is the potential for a rift between offense and defense if the defense feels that they aren’t getting the support they need.
There is also the potential for a QB controversy. Jalen Milroe is an exciting player. If things begin to go badly. The question of who plays quarterback could divide both the fan base and the locker room.
The quarterback
Which brings us to the single most important reason Seattle could have a very bad year in 2025. The play they get from the quarterback position is as important as any three of the above items combined.
Nobody suggests the Seattle Seahawks could go winless without also assuming that Sam Darnold’s excellent 2024 was a total fluke. If he reverts to what he was early in his career, Seattle’s entire offense will struggle. That is not likely to happen, but it is possible.
Even if Darnold underperforms, there’s no way Seattle goes winless in 2025. The defense is too good. It will keep them competitive in most games. They will win a few just by hanging around and making a big play at the end.
The mere fact that Backyard Breaks could promote such an outlandish prediction is an indication of how seriously the Hawks are being taken now. The answer is “not very.” This is the exact kind of thing a good coach uses to motivate his players. We'll see if Macdonald can use this as kindling to light a fire under his team.
And for the record, excluding major injury (we always have to exclude serious injury), Seattle’s absolute floor for 2025 is 6-11.