Is the NFL – fans and analysts alike – sleeping on the New England Patriots as they prepare to take on the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX? According to ESPN talking head Stephen A. Smith, they are. And he is right there at the front of the line.
“”I’m snoring. Give me a pillow. Let me take a nap.”
Smith was responding to his fellow First Take analyst – and former Patriot – Jason McCourty, who opened Tuesday's show by talking about the four-and-a-half point spread which favors Seattle and analytics which give the Seahawks a 60 percent chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy.
Stephen A. Smith goes all in on the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX
McCourty argued this showed a lack of respect for the AFC champions. His position was later supported by Jeff Saturday, who suggested the game should be a “pick ‘em.”
Smith wasn’t hearing it.
“I’m sleeping on them big time,” Then, looking right at McCourty … “Y’all ain’t winning the Super Bowl.”
Smith, love him or hate him, is paid to have opinions. You don’t thrive on television by taking measured views and hedging your thoughts. He did allow that the game would be competitive because of New England’s strong defense, but still, he saw no way that the Patriots’ offense, which has averaged 18 points-per-game in the playoffs, could score enough against Seattle’s top-ranked defense to actually win.
Not being a multi-million dollar talking head, I’m not able to be quite so definitive. But I tend to agree with Stephen A. I think Seattle will win, and there is no question in my mind that they should be favored.
According to every metric known to man, Seattle was a better team in 2025 than New England. They had identical records, but Seattle played a much more difficult schedule. New England, according to most rankings, had the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025.
According to ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), Seattle was the best team in the league in 2025. The only team close to them was the team they beat for the NFC Championship – the LA Rams. New England finished 10th in that ranking.
Before the playoffs, New England played three games against teams that ended the year with winning records. They went 1-2. They are playing very well at the right time of year and have won three straight playoff games. One was in a blizzard against a backup QB. Another was in a freezing rainstorm.
Seattle played seven games against teams with winning records, going 5-2.
Does any of this guarantee a Seahawks’ victory? Of course not. But is a four-and-a-half point spread really the sign of gargantuan disrespect that McCourty and Saturday are making it out to be? Come on. Get real for a minute.
Four-and-a-half points is actually a fraction lower than the median of point spreads in Super Bowl history. Thirty of the fifty-nine Super Bowls played to this point have kicked off with one team favored by at least five points.
Indeed, this has not been the trend of late. There has not been this big a favorite since Super Bowl LII at the end of the 2017 season. That’s when this same Patriots’ franchise was favored over Philadelphia. I guess everyone was sleeping on the Eagles that year because Nick Foles led Philly to win.
Conversations like this are designed to do one thing. They play into grievances. The “nobody respects us” mantra that coaches and teams have been using ever since team sports became a thing. “The general public thinks we are going to lose the biggest game of the year to the best team in the league by less than a touchdown! Are you going to take that?!”
It’s designed to create bulletin board material for Mike Vrabel and bar-talk fodder for fans. Stephen A. gets that.
I think Seattle is going to win, but I’m not betting my life’s savings on it. Of course, New England could win. They’ve sure got a better chance than Denver or Buffalo or any other AFC club.
But they were 4-13 last year. That was the same year the Washington Commanders shocked the league by turning around a similarly moribund team and going to the NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles were favored by six points! Gasp! Can you imagine the disrespect?
Philly nonetheless managed to beat the spread. They won by 32.
Four and a half points isn’t “sleeping.” Stop saying it is. It merely suggests that the public thinks Seattle is a better team. New England has a chance to prove them wrong in a couple of weeks.