Tyler Lockett could get shocking Seahawks reprieve after 2025 salary-cap surge

Long-time favorite Tyler Lockett has often been mentioned as one of the most likely players to be traded or cut by the Seattle Seahawks to clear cap space this year. With news of the projected cap space for the new season, there's plenty of reason to smile when you think of Tyler Lockett's address in 2025.

Even before the excellent news of increased cap space, the little wheels in my head were spinning, trying to think of a way to keep Tyler Lockett on the Hawks roster this year. Is he the number-one receiver in Seattle? No, he's not. He's clearly now the number three option behind DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That's hardly the same as saying he's not a valuable player.

But the word "valuable" is the key here. Does he hold the same value he did when he signed a two-year, $29.6 million dollar extension last year? No, not even close. His cap hit for the 2025 season is just under $30.9 million this year. There is simply no way Lockett was going to stay on the roster with that contract. With the newly established cap, there's even more reason to think Seattle can keep him lighting up defensive backs.

The Seahawks need some monetary magic to keep Tyler Lockett, but not as much as you'd think

Before we get to the financial side, let's establish that yes, it's worth keeping Lockett on the roster. Last season saw his lowest production since 2017 when he had 45 catches for 555 yards and two scores. Lockett hauled in 49 balls for 600 yards and two TDs last year. He added a lot of value in 2017 as a kick returner, as all good 12s know. He led the league with 949 return yards and a score. Lockett hasn't returned a kick since 2020, solely because he's been too valuable in the Seahawks passing attack.

So his game has declined. He's still an effective receiver, though. He still caught 66 percent of his targets, not as good as JSN (73 percent), but better than DK (61 percent). He only scored two touchdowns, but the catches that picked up first downs were a stellar 77 percent. Smith-Njigba converted 61 percent of his catches into first, while Metcalf moved the chains on 57 percent of his receptions. This takes into account each player's touchdowns, as obviously, you can't pick up a first down when you've scored.

So while he's not the player he was five years ago, you can't argue that he isn't a solid part of the Hawks passing attack. It's just that he's not worth $30 million at this stage of his career. He could still play a solid number-two role on several teams. I mean, not everyone has the luxury of DK and JSN on the roster. Pete Carroll, keep your mitts to yourself, sir.

So what's a reasonable figure that John Schneider might expect Mr. Lockett to sign for? For that answer, I'll compare the Hawks' second-all-time leading receiver to two other players with similar career arcs. I'll include career averages for basic stats prior to the 2024 season, the same stats for last year, and their current salary situations.

The more astute 12s have been paying attention, so they know Player B is Lockett. I mean, I gave you his stats just a few paragraphs before. Player A is Keenan Allen, last with the Bears, while Player C is DeAndre Hopkins, who ended his season with the Chiefs. Both are free agents for 2025, with Allen's contract ending last season, and Hopkins having the second year of his contract voided for 2025.

Here's the interesting part for us, 12s. One of the best sites for contract information, spotrac.com, has ranked the top free agents by their projected market value for the upcoming season. With both Allen and Hopkins on the market, it's reasonable to assume that Lockett would be projected to have a similar value if the Seahawks released him. Both Hopkins and Allen will turn 33 before the season starts, while Lockett will hit that number in Week 4 of the new season.

Allen is projected to earn a two-year deal for $22 million. By the way, you'll notice that perched at the top of their list of most comparable players for Allen is - drumroll please - Tyler Lockett. Allen is listed as the third-highest among all free-agent wide receivers. Hopkins is projected to snag a richer deal, but only for one year, at $15.2 million. Lockett is listed as the third-most comparable player to Hopkins.

So what this means for the Seahawks and John Schneider is leverage. Lockett and his agent know that he's not going to stay in Seattle with a cap hit north of $30 million. Seattle could release him with a gentleman's agreement to bring him back under a new deal as they have with several players in the past. He could certainly expect a deal similar to his comps detailed above.

With the added cap space, it's more likely than ever that Seattle could sing him to another extension. The Hawks will have at least $22 million more than last season's $255 million, which is what they were working with this year. Sure, every other team is getting that same boost, so the competition for talent isn't any lighter, but that does give Schneider more breathing room.

Just one scenario could see the Seahawks extend Lockett for two seasons with two void years. The void years allow the team to spread his signing bonus - in my scenario, $12 million - over four years. If Seattle releases him next year, the remaining signing bonus would count against the 2026 cap. The Hawks currently have a manageable cap that year. Not as much as it might appear, but far more than in 2025.

So Lockett would get $13.9 million this season after accounting for a low base salary. That would be comparable to most of the top free agents at his position. Stefon Diggs and Amari Cooper are both projected to land in that same range. If the Hawks cut him, no one is going to pay him anything close to his current deal. Lockett wins because he gets to stay in Seattle.

The Seahawks win because they keep a respected team leader who can still produce on the field. And the 12s win because - I mean, it's Tyler Lockett, gang!

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