What follows is a complete opinion. My opinion. I feel the need to clarify that up front because we are in the speculative part of the NFL offseason. OTAs are just beginning, but the hard information available to outsiders is scarce. That leads to wild guesses based on the flimsiest of evidence.
Some of that speculation involves the Seattle Seahawks' quarterback position and whether rookie Jalen Milroe could possibly win the job from free agent acquisition Sam Darnold. Anyone dipping their toe into this territory does so with disclaimers galore. The phrases “highly unlikely” and “one in a million” are often used as qualifiers.
I don’t want to be wishy washy. So let me say this as plainly as I can. Allowing for one – and only one – exception, under no circumstances should Jalen Milroe start a game at quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks in 2025.
Who should be the starting quarterback for the Seahawks in 2025?
I didn’t think this would have to said out loud, but Sam Darnold is the Seahawks’ starter, and barring injury, should remain the Seahawks’ starter for the entire upcoming season. But allow me to go one step further. If for some reason Darnold cannot start one or more games in 2025, Drew Lock should take his place ahead of Milroe.
The only exception to my statement above comes if both Darnold and Lock are lost to injury. At that point, the risk-reward tilts in the rookie’s direction.
Understand, I am not saying that Darnold and Lock should start because Milroe is not a good player. I actually believe that if handled properly, Milroe has a chance to be better than both, and an excellent chance to be better than Lock.
But entering his rookie season, he is not better than either of them, and Seattle runs a very serious risk of doing long-term damage to his career if they rush him onto the field.
Jalen Milroe showed last year at Alabama that he is not ready to play quarterback in the NFL. I think there is legitimate concern that he will never overcome his shortcomings and be a star player, but as far as Seattle is concerned, that question is moot. They chose him, and now they must be committed to helping him live up to his prodigious potential.
Part of that commitment – a major part in my opinion – means bringing him along slowly.
Milroe did not throw a lot of passes in college. 663 passing attempts is decent, but it falls far short of the 1,169 that Dak Prescott, one of the few recent mid-round QBs who started as a rookie, attempted. There is no exact correlation between attempts and NFL-readiness, but seeing more coverage in college tends to help.
Processing – knowing where to throw within a second or two of the snap – and then making an accurate throw – are two of the QB metrics that often confound scouts. Coaching can indeed help a young quarterback develop these skills, but nothing develops them as well as game experience.
The problem is, if you throw a quarterback who lacks a baseline level of processing into the teeth of a hungry NFL defense, he rarely improves. He usually gets killed, and his confidence flatlines. We have seen this happen to promising first-round prospects like Dwayne Haskins, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance in recent years.
Over the course of one or two seasons, Milroe should get onto the field a fair amount of time, but he should be running very limited packages that take advantage of what he can do. At this point, Jalen Milroe is a sensational runner. He should run a lot.
To keep the defense honest, he needs to be able to throw based on single reads. As a rookie, don’t expect him to go through multiple progressions. One read. If it’s there, throw it. If it isn’t, throw it away. Or run.
There is no guarantee that this will get him where he needs to be, but it is a much more likely path to success than throwing him to the wolves before he is ready.
OK – how do I know he is not ready? I don’t. Neither do you. In time, we have to assume that Klint Kubiak and quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko will know whether he is ready, but I suspect that if you gave them truth serum, they would admit that even they don’t know that answer today.
I base my opinion on watching Milroe play last year. He looked very good at times, as quarterbacks at Alabama often do. There were other times when he looked very uncertain.
Quarterbacks who put up big numbers with relatively little experience at elite schools are always an iffy proposition. Haskins at Ohio State, or Mac Jones at Alabama, were directing offenses jam-packed with future pros. They played well and put up big numbers, but it was very hard to project how those skills would translate when they were not playing on a team with superior talent.
Both went with the 15th pick in the first round. Jones’ story is still being written, but it seems apparent that he was over-drafted. Haskins’ tragic life came to an end three years ago after he struggled mightily in the NFL.
If you need statistical evidence to support my opinion, here’s something to consider. In the seven years leading up to 2025, 77 FBS-level quarterbacks were chosen in the draft. (A handful of QBs from lower tiers were also chosen. I am excluding them, though their inclusion would not affect what follows.)
Six of those quarterbacks – just under 8 percent -- had a career interception rate in college of 3 percent or higher.
Jalen Milroe’s interception rate in college was 3 percent.
Three of those quarterbacks were late-round picks who have had no impact in the NFL. Two of the others were Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Both started as rookies in 2023. Two years later, Levis will lose his job to Cam Ward while Richardson will face a serious challenge from Daniel Jones. Neither was ready to play as a rookie, and playing didn’t magically make them better.
There is an even more troubling stat for Milroe. Most college quarterbacks see their interception percentage improve with experience. That is what happened with half of the quarterbacks in that career-3 percent category. The three who got worse over time only fell off by one-tenth in their final college season.
Not so for Milroe. He had a mediocre interception percentage entering 2024, and he got significantly worse in that final season. Almost a full half point worse. That’s a big crop. And keep in mind that this came despite playing on an Alabama team that often had more talent than its opponent.
How is he going to suddenly turn into a passer who reads complex defenses better and makes better throws in the space of one offseason?
Milroe is not ready to start now, and it is highly unlikely that he will be ready at any point in 2025. If Darnold gets hurt, Lock should be the first call. That means that Seattle may have to keep all three QBs active on Sundays. You want Milroe to get onto the field in a limited way, but you want Lock to take over in an emergency.
In the interest of balance, let me back off this glass-half-empty POV and offer some hope. Even though I don’t see it right now, there is plenty of hope out there. Start with Jordan Love, a quarterback whose interception percentage blew up in his final college season (3.6 percent, a full point higher than his college career percentage).
Love attempted a grand total of 50 passes in his first two seasons with Green Bay. And he did develop. He is now one of the better starting QBs in the league.
Or consider the case of Jalen Hurts, another quarterback whose final season in college witnessed a half-point rise in his interception percentage. To be fair, Hurts’ overall percentage was far better than Milroe’s, but still, it did go up. The likely cause was the fact that he switched teams for his final year and had to learn a new offense.
Milroe did not switch schools, but he did get a new coaching staff in 2024. That may help explain his shaky performance.
Jalen Hurts, if you recall, did start a few games late in his rookie season, but he mostly saw spot duty, like Milroe should see this year. Hurts was more seasoned than Milroe as a rookie.
Finally, I never told you who the sixth QB was to have a career interception percentage in college over 3 percent. It was Josh Allen. And he did play as a rookie. His trajectory was much better than Milroe’s. His final year at Wyoming saw him begin to mature, and that interception percentage improved markedly. Still, a lot of what I am saying about Milroe could apply to Allen.
So there’s your exception. If you really think Jalen Milroe should be given a shot if Darnold begins to struggle this year, you can always argue that Milroe is the next Josh Allen. As a Seahawks fan, I hope you’re right.
I just don’t think the math is on your side.