There isn't much precedent for a quarterback drafted in the third round to take the starting gig as a rookie. Of course, Seattle is one of the few teams that have seen it happen. But Jalen Milroe is facing a very different situation than the 2012 Seahawks.
From the moment Seahawks legend Shaun Alexander announced Jalen Milroe as their fourth pick in the 2025 NFL draft, the buzz started. How long before the third-round rookie would displace Seattle's $100-million QB, Sam Darnold? The heat jumped from a low simmer to a roiling boil when Milroe himself made a huge jump between OTAs and minicamp.
As noted by my excellent colleague, great performances in camp against the third-string defense don't necessarily translate to the regular season. However, it's also true that Milroe wasn't throwing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Cooper Kupp, either. Aside from Milroe's and Sam Darnold's performances so far this summer, just how likely is it that the rookie will take over at some point this season?
Jalen Milroe doesn't have history on his side to take QB1 for the Seahawks
It's been exceedingly rare for a third-round draft pick to walk into camp and take the starting quarterback role away. Any member of the 12s worthy of the group will point out that Seattle gave us one of those instances. "Hey dipstick, remember Russell Wilson in 2012? What the heck, man?"
That's the sanitized version; FanSided is a family-friendly site. Yes, as a matter of fact, I do remember Mr. Unlimited walking into camp and putting the Seahawks' pricey off-season free agent quarterback on the bench. And as poorly as Wilson's career in Seattle finished, thank goodness he did take over as a rookie.
But there's a very big problem with that comparison. Sam Darnold may not be an established star, but at least he has one very good season in his career. His counterpart on the 2012 Seahawks, Matt Flynn, is in no way comparable to Darnold. Darnold has 73 career starts in 84 games and has thrown for over 16,000 yards.
When Seattle signed Flynn, he had two career starts in 34 games. He'd thrown for 1,015 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions. 2011 was his best year by far. The former seventh-round pick completed 33 of 49 passes for 518 yards and six touchdowns versus two picks.
The problem is that most of that production came from one game. In the final game of the season on New Year's Day, Flynn was masterful against the Lions. He completed 31 of 44 passes for 480 yards and six TDs.
That's right, 12s. 47 percent of his career yardage to that point came in one game, along with 67 percent of his touchdowns. Outside of that game (against a Detroit squad that already had the playoffs locked in), Flynn had thrown for an astounding 535 yards, three scores, and four picks.
I know it's hard to believe, but Flynn was a hot item on the free agent market. Seattle "won" with a deal for $26 million, with $10 million guaranteed. Accounting for inflation, that would be $36 million with $14 million guaranteed in 2025. But that doesn't account for the growth in NFL players' compensation. There are several ways to parse that.
In 2012, Flynn's cap hit, $6.5 million, ranked 22nd in the league. The rather dubious Aaron Rodgers is 22nd in cap this season, at $13.65 million. Flynn ranked ninth in percentage of Seattle's cap space in 2012 at 3.3 percent, while Darnold ranks third at 4.8 percent.
Without getting too mathy, it seems very likely that Flynn's contract would be much closer to $50 million with $20 million guaranteed if he signed today. Well, if the 2012 version was signed. He's actually younger than his former teammate Rodgers. At this point, they might be about equally skilled.
As for Darnold, it's true that his one great year hasn't convinced everyone that he's the real deal. At least John Schneider didn't gamble the entire season on a free agent's performance in one game. Darnold didn't look great in minicamp, but as a wise man once said: "We talking about practice?" Darnold has a couple of months to get things sorted.
As for Milroe, his predecessor Wilson faced some serious questions when he was drafted in the third round. They were very different questions, to be sure. DangeRuss was noted for his accuracy and that elusive field generalship. But his height was an issue. As his athletic skills declined, he began taking more risks to compensate. That's the main reason he's now on his third team in three years.
Milroe is the anti-Russ. His athleticism is off the charts. It's his accuracy that's been questioned. So far, he's addressed those concerns in camp. Will it be enough to supplant Darnold - and for that matter, Drew Lock - as the Seahawks' starting quarterback? We'll see, but he has to do much more than unseat a one-hit wonder to win the job.