The Week One Injury Report and Its Trustworthiness

Aug 17, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Brandon Browner (39) returns a fumble 106 yards for a touchdown against the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

 

The kickoff of Seahawks football is a mere couple of days away and it is an immensely exciting time for Seahawks fans. What is slightly less exciting is to hear about the injuries this team is already dealing with. It’s not as if this the Seahawks are completely overcome by injuries, but they don’t exactly have the cleanest bill of health either. Here’s the low down:

Chris Clemons DE- Out (Knee)

Jordan Hill DT- Out (Biceps)

Michael Bowie OT- Out (Shoulder)

Cliff Avril DE- Doubtful (Hamstring)

Brandon Browner CB- Questionable (Hamstring)

Tony McDaniel DT- Probable (Groin)

Brandon Mebane DT- Probable (Groin)

Sidney Rice WR- Probable (Knee)

Stephen Williams WR- Probable (Knee)

Now before we take this at face value it would be a good idea to have some context for the accuracy of Pete Carroll’s injury reports. Bill Belichick, for example, releases injury reports that appear to be relatively pure fiction at times. When looking at the chart below keep in mind that players who are “Probable” are meant to play about 75% of time, those who are “Questionable” are supposed to play about 50% of the time and those classified as “Doubtful” are meant to take to the field about 25% of the time.

Year

Probable Reported

Percentage of Games Played

Questionable Reported

Percentage of Games Played

Doubtful Reported

Percentage of Games Played

2010

33

69.7%

78

41%

5

0

2011

40

82.5%

75

53.33%

4

0

2012

36

88.9%

88

56.8%

1

0

Total

109

80.7%

241

50.6%

10

0

 

Looking at this chart you might say that Pete Carroll has tended to publish honest injury reports in his Seahawks tenure as a whole. You might also say that Cliff Avril is pretty unlikely to take the field on Sunday. Brandon Browner is anyone’s guess as “questionable” really has meant questionable under this regime. You can bet on McDaniel and Mebane taking the field for the sole reason that the Seahawks need someone to put at defensive tackle.

While the loss of Avril for this game is a big one, the Seahawks are almost certain to see some more gruesome injury reports than this as the season goes on. At the very least they will be gruesome and honest.

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  • Keith Myers

    Good stuff Nick. I’ve been saying for years that the NFL needs to completely redo their injury report labels. Players listed as doubtful play about 1% of the time, so it’s a fairly meaningless designation. I also think that the fictional reports given out by Belichick (and others) should create some sort of punitive action.

    • 12thMan_Rising

      Good to see you are still reading Keith. Yeah, some one really needs to stop guys like Belichick trying to abuse the system for a competitive advantage. That being said, what else do you expect from him.

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