Defense and Special Teams: Field Position Matters
By Keith Myers
Nov 11, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive end Bruce Irvin (51) celebrates a sack against the New York Jets during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
My statistical study of 2012 defenses continues. I’m still trying to wrap my brain around the mathematics of all that drive data I posted a couple days ago. There’s plenty of good information there, but I can’t regress the data to wins without first accounting for offense and special teams. Doing that expands the data set ad infinitum, which removes the validity of what I was hoping to find.
There’s a way to do this, and I’ll find it. I’m just not there yet.
In the interim, I’ve decided to look into the last variable I can think that of needs to be addressed in this study. That would be the starting field position for opposing offense. The reasoning is pretty simple, give the offense a shorter field, and they’re likely to score points more often.
Below is the average starting field position for each team’s defensive drives. (There’s probably a better way to word that.) I expected the Seahawks to be near the top of the list, and sure enough they are there at #1.
My first thought when I saw the results was that the difference between the best (Seattle, 24.2 yard line) and the worst (Phily, 31.86 yard line) wasn’t enough to matter. It’s only 7 yards, right? Then I realized the cumulative effect that the difference could have over almost 200 possessions.
To show that, I calculated the difference in total yards over the entire season. Putting these numbers in perspective, the Eagles almost spotted their opponents Marshawn Lynch’s entire rushing production for the year, and that’s before those opponents ever ran a play. That’s a lot of yards being given to their opponents for free over the course of the season.
I have to say, the Seahawk’s special teams don’t get nearly the credit they deserve for being great last season. We know the Seahawks defense was among the best, and the Seahawk offense was as well at the end of the year. The special teams units get overlooked though, and that’s a shame. One look at the “total yards” column below, and it’s easy to see how important they are to the success of this team.
Special teams aren’t the only factor here in creating this average starting field position, though they are the biggest factor. Each team’s offense played a roll as well, since turnovers tend to be the cause for the shortest of the short-field scenarios. I don’t actually have the data, but I’d wager that teams who’s offenses have a high percentage of 3-and-outs are mostly down near the bottom of this list as well.
I’m probably going to have to collect all this same data for the offenses just to see how it comes up. It wont have any bearing on this study of defensive variables, but it’ll be very interesting.
What does all of this mean for the defenses? That’s simple. Good special teams can help inflate how good a defense is perceived to be. If the defense is already great, then forcing the opponent to travel farther to get points is just mean.
The Seahawks are apparently mean. I can live with that.
RkTeamAve. LOSDrivestotal yards1Seattle Seahawks24.216402San Francisco 49ers24.9173121.13Indianapolis Colts24.98173134.944Atlanta Falcons25.1176158.45Cincinnati Bengals25.46186234.366New England Patriots25.6191267.47Denver Broncos25.75186288.38Chicago Bears25.951923369Green Bay Packers25.96184323.8410San Diego Chargers26.13176339.6811Dallas Cowboys26.21168337.6812Tampa Bay Buccaneers26.42187415.1413Baltimore Ravens27.02190535.814Cleveland Browns27.14194570.3615Minnesota Vikings27.26181553.8616Jacksonville Jaguars27.55183613.0517Washington Redskins27.63177607.1118Arizona Cardinals27.66205709.319Miami Dolphins27.717862320New York Giants27.84170618.821Kansas City Chiefs27.98173653.9422Houston Texans27.98196740.8823New York Jets28.39187783.5324Carolina Panthers28.65170756.525New Orleans Saints29.32187957.4426St. Louis Rams29.59176948.6427Detroit Lions29.59185997.1528Pittsburgh Steelers29.87174986.5829Tennessee Titans30.041841074.5630Buffalo Bills30.211791075.7931Oakland Raiders30.871801200.632Philadelphia Eagles31.861761348.16
* All starting field position data was provided by Football Outsiders! I didn’t have the time to go though all the game logs to collect this particular data, so I owe them a huge thank you for making this data available.