Predicting the Bobby Wagner contract extension numbers

The Seattle Seahawks and All-Pro middle linebacker Bobby Wagner will agree to a contract extension at some point this offseason. It is going to happen, all that’s left to be determined are the length and the financial detailes of the new Bobby Wagner contract.

Luckily, market history allows us to predict these things with reasonably accuracy. Wagner is going to be one of the highest paid players at his position, so we can use the contracts of the other top players at his position to develop guidelines for predicting his contract values.

Setting the value

To get an idea of the market for the top middle linebackers in the NFL, we first need to take a look at the top contracts that are currently in the league.

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*Data taken from Spotrac

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The contract that stands out as being the most likely reference point for Wagner is the Donald Butler contract with the Chargers. It was signed just last year, and he is a similar age as Wagner. The same goes for the Navarro Bowman contract which was signed the year before.

It is interesting that teams and players have tended to opt for longer contracts. It would seem to benefit the player to secure a shorter deal so they can get back onto the market again at a relatively young age. Instead, almost all of the contracts end when the player is going to be 31 or 32 years old.

Wagner is just 24 years old. (He’ll be 25 for next season, which is the final year of his current deal.) A five year extension means he’ll be 30 when his contract expires. A four year deal gets him back on the market when he’s still 29 and young enough to command another massive deal.

I’d guess that Wagner would be willing to take slightly less per year now in order to avoid having that fifth year added to the new contract. That and the amount of guaranteed money are likely going to be the key points of the negotiation.

Assuming that Wagner doesn’t get the fifth year removed from the deal, the target values for the contract will land just under $50 million and with just over $20 million guaranteed.

How it works under the salary cap

Wagner is currently set to $977,427 in 2015. That’s his salary, and there is no reason to change that. Any new money he gets for the 2015 season will come in the way of a signing bonus.

Looking at the other top ILB contract, a $12-13 million signing bonus is the sweet spot for Wagner. Let’s use $12.5 million as his bonus for the sake of this exercise. That means that Wagner’s total compensation for 2015 will be just under $13.5 million. All of that would be guaranteed.

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The additional $393,236 of bonus for 2015 is the remaining portion of his signing bonus from his rookie deal. The reason there is nothing in the bonus column for the final year of the deal is because league rules only allow bonuses to be spread out over five years.

This proposed deal would fully guarantee the 2015 and 2016 salaries. Together with the signing bonus, it would bring his total guaranteed money to $21,177,427.

When all the dust settles, this contract extension is for five years, $50 million with just over $21 million guaranteed. That’s right in the sweet spot we were looking for.