NFL Draft Profile: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Yesterday I listed Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston as one of the overrated players that this year’s draft. Given the outrage that generated, it appears that a full draft profile is in order. Just don’t expect my opinion of Winston to change.

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While there is a lot to like with Winston, there are also plenty of red flags just that show up in his tape. The off-field concerns are a completely other issue, and they are not insignificant either.

Let’s start with the positives. Winston has an amazing arm. He can put great velocity on ball even when off balance. He also shows great accuracy and touch on his passes at all three levels. Throw in a solid ability to read the field pre-snap, and it is easy to see why so many people are excited.

The problems with Winston begin with his basic throwing mechanics. His throwing motion is long and uneven. Winston’s mechanics might not be Tim Tebow-bad, but they are still problematic. While it is true that a few QBs have been successful with poor mechanics, many promising young passers have ended up in the “bust” category because they are unable to overcome their mechanical issues.

That long stride is reason for concern. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Complicating things is that Winston is a long-strider when he throws. He needs a clean pocket to deliver the ball accurately. When there is pressure and he cannot step into his throw, his poor mechanics cause accuracy problems. NFL pockets are rarely as clean as the ones Winston had in college.

Of course it would help if Winston was a decent athlete. If he has a reasonable level of athleticism he’d be able to move and create the functional space that he needs.

Instead, he’s a classic statue of a quarterback. Anyone saying Winston is a good athlete is looking at the color of skin and not his game tape. Keep in mind that Peyton Manning’s combine numbers were better than Winston’s. Yes, that Peyton Manning.

Of course, much of what it takes to be successful at quarterback is mental, and not physical. Phillip Rivers has been a successful NFL quarterback despite sub-optimal mechanics in part because he consistently makes good decisions with the football.

It is possible that Winston develops into that type of player, but he isn’t there yet. There is a reason why he led the nation with 18 interceptions last season. Winston often loses track of linebackers who are in coverage underneath, which is what led to most of his picks last year.

This isn’t meant to bury Winston as a prospect. His tape is still solid, and definitely worthy of a first-round pick. He just isn’t a slam-dunk prospect. His success in NFL is far-from guaranteed.

Next: 7 overrated and underrated players from the NFL draft

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