The importance of mock drafts

Mock drafts are very popular this time of year, and with good reason. The NFL Draft is a big event, and people are getting excited as it slowly approaches. Unfortunately, people are currently downplaying the importance of mock drafts in the draft process.

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As with anything on the internet, the more popular something is, the more people want to come out and bash it. Mocks are no exception. They are the most well-read articles on the web this time of year, so it is becoming increasingly common to see comments that say “Mocks are a waste of time since they are never accurate.” These people clearly have missed the point.

The point of mock draft is to provide context that player evaluations and ranking cannot provide on their own. A much as “best player available” is a nice idea for a draft strategy, the truth is that teams do not work that way. They must take their short- and long-term roster needs into account when selecting players.

An then there’s the issue of what players other teams take, and how many other player are available at certain positions. Some players will go earlier than their talent suggests (like tight end Maxx Williams) because there is little talent at the position in this year’s draft.

For example, I am currently involved in a mock draft with 31 other team writers. (By involved, I mean I’m sitting here watching, since the Seahawks don’t pick until the end of the second round and we’ve yet to complete the first round).

There’s been this huge run on wide receivers already, and it is making me question my ability to get an impact player at the position at the end of the third round when I’d hoped to take a player at the position.

Amari Cooper went eighth overall to the Bears, and Devin Funchess went 18th overall to the Chiefs. Between them saw Devante Parker, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman all came off the board.

There are still wide receiver needy teams In Carolina, Baltimore and Indianapolis left to pick in the first round. Throw in a few other needy teams in the top half of the second round, and a lot of the guys we’ve assumed would be there at pick No. 63 could all be gone. The chances that any of those guys falling into the third round are becoming extremely small.

This is the context that mock drafts provide. Very few people consider Funchess a first-round talent, but the other top guys were already gone. When Kansas City couldn’t find proper value to trade down, they selected him at 18 rather than risk that he wouldn’t be there at pick 49. This is the type of things that NFL teams are deal with on draft day.

Is this what will actually happen in the draft, almost certainly not. But keep in mind that this isn’t an exercise in prediction, but rather an exercise in scenario generation. This is a situation that the Chiefs likely hadn’t considered, and it was interesting to see what they chose to do under those circumstances. It remains to be seen what my Seahawks and the other teams that need a WR will do as well.

So don’t discount mock draft so quickly. They have their place and are an important part of the draft process. Besides, they’re fun and that alone should be enough to keep people from complaining about them.

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