NFL Power Index: A new number 1, Seattle still 4th

It is amazing how stable the NFL Power Index can be with only eight weeks of data. Teams are what they are, so there hasn’t been the movement here that you’ll see in subjective “power rankings.”

That doesn’t mean that weren’t significant movers. Denver’s defensive display against Green Bay caused the Broncos to jump up five spots. Kansas City’s dismantling of the Lions caused them to make a significant jump as well. There’s just not much reshuffling overall each week.

For the second straight week there was a result that forced me to double check every data point. Last week it was the Jets being at the top of the rankings. This week is was the other end of the spectrum.

That the Lions are last in the rankings isn’t surprising. That they currently have a 4.26 in the power index is shocking. The index is designed to have zero be a theoretical minimum. Anything under 20 is historically awful. A four is worse than would be expected from an expansion team.

There’s a new number 1, and it should be any surprise who it is this time. The Patriots have played a soft schedule, but they’ve completely dominated it. New England and Cincinnati have been significantly better than everyone else thus far this season.

That is distinctly different from Carolina. The Panthers have played a much softer schedule and New England, and they haven’t dominated the weaker teams like you might expect for an undefeated team. Undefeated or not, the NFL Power Index doesn’t even have them in the top 10.

The index continues to like Seattle far more than seems reasonable. A tough strength of schedule combined with insanely dominant performances again Chicago and San Francisco (and defensively against Dallas and Detroit) are propping the Seahawks up right now. That isn’t likely to continue unless they start winning more convincingly each week.

NFL Power Index

Rank	Last	Team	Yds	ST	3%	SoS	Power
1	2	New England	0.5	22.0	7.1	-0.2	84.07
2	3	Cincinnati	0.0	16.1	6.3	1.7	80.04
3	8	Denver	0.9	14.8	1.7	0.5	74.60
4	4	Seattle	1.7	13.3	6.3	1.1	73.85
5	1	NY Jets	1.2	12.8	9	0.2	73.80
6	5	Arizona	2.6	22.4	8.1	-1.9	71.95
7	6	Pittsburgh	1.5	18.6	-4.2	2.4	70.98
8	16	Kansas City	0.5	26.2	2.9	1.8	70.59
9	7	Green Bay	0.0	24.8	-4.8	0.5	65.56
10	12	Oakland	1.0	20.5	1.8	0.1	64.12
11	10	Carolina	1.2	20.0	-2.6	-1.7	62.04
12	17	St. Louis	1.4	20.7	-8.1	0.3	60.54
13	11	Minnesota	0.2	25.0	3.8	-1	59.97
14	9	Atlanta	1.2	22.7	6.5	-2.5	57.30
15	13	Buffalo	1.3	12.0	-4.3	-0.6	55.80
16	14	Philadelphia	0.0	17.3	-6.9	-0.2	54.95
17	20	New Orleans	-1.4	23.1	15.6	0.1	54.50
18	15	NY Giants	-0.7	22.9	-9.2	-1.4	51.84
19	19	Tampa Bay	0.5	27.6	-4.2	-2.9	50.38
20	21	Houston	-1.7	25.6	11.4	-2	48.95
21	18	Miami	0.9	22.0	-10	-0.8	47.84
22	24	Tennessee	-0.6	15.8	-4.4	-2.5	44.94
23	26	San Diego	-1.5	27.4	8.1	0.5	42.39
24	29	Washington	-2.1	11.4	3.7	-1	41.43
25	23	Indianapolis	-0.7	13.8	2.2	-0.5	40.63
26	25	Dallas	0.3	32.1	-5	1.5	39.57
27	22	Cleveland	-1.6	19.0	4.4	0.4	37.15
28	27	Jacksonville	-0.2	15.1	-11.4	-0.3	33.41
29	28	Chicago	-1.4	25.8	-3.7	1.2	30.89
30	31	Baltimore	-1.0	25.2	-13	1.5	25.19
31	30	San Francisco	-1.6	21.8	-3.5	2.5	17.77
32	32	Detroit	-2.1	26.7	-9.3	1.6	4.26

The data form over 30 statistics is combined into indexes, and then those indexes are weighted and combined into raw power index. That is then normalized between 0 and 100, with 50 being average.

Yds – yards per play index. Offense and defense include, with run and pass weighted separately.

SOS – Strength of schedule from TeamRankings.

ST – Special teams index, created using punt and kick returns averages.

3% – Combined third down conversion rates.

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