What if the Seahawks had traded Lynch for Forte?

Seahawks used Lynch as a workhorse, would have done the same with Forte

The Hawks targeted Lynch 22 percent fewer times than did the Bills. I’ll apply that same process to Matt Forte. He was targeted 636 times by the Bears, with 487 catches. That’s an average of 5.3 targets and 4.1 receptions for his 120 games in Chicago. In the three seasons prior to our hypothetical trade, he was targeted 218 times and completed the play 171 times. As he averaged 4.5 targets and 3.6 catches, the Seahawks would certainly know what he could do as a receiver.

Even though they would see that Forte was a better weapon as a receiver, we’ll assume Seattle would cut his targets, just as they did with Lynch. That drops his targets from 73 per season to 57, and his receptions from 57 to 44. Forte’s average yardage would drop from 498 to 389. Those numbers are based on his first three seasons. He’d still be a more dangerous weapon out of the backfield than Lynch ever was.

But if we assume Seattle would cut Forte’s plays as a receiver, we should also assume they’d increase his workload as a ballcarrier. Lynch had 1,457 carries with the Seahawks in 82 games. That’s an average of 17.7 carries. Forte had 2035 carries for the Bears in 120 games. That’s an average workload of 17.0 carries per game. So while we’re taking 16 targets away from Forte every year, we need to add 11 carries back in. Frankly, I was surprised the Bears ran him that much, but he did have 316 carries as a rookie. After 2008, he averaged 16.5 carries a season.