Can the Seahawks really target Chris Carson 50 times?
The Seahawks have made it clear that Chris Carson will be more involved in the passing game this year. But can he really get 50 targets in the Seattle offense?
Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer made it abundantly clear that he expects to use Chris Carson much more often in the passing game this year. That makes a lot of sense, as he caught 20 of his 24 targets last year. He nabbed seven of his eight targets as a rookie, too. As Bob Condotta reported for the Seattle Times, Schottenheimer wants to bump those numbers up:
"“We need to get that number up,’’ Schottenheimer said. “Around the 50s would be a great situation for us so he’s still getting his yards on the ground and he’s still helping us in the passing game.’’"
To be clear, Schotty was asked about targets, not catches. When you consider that Carson’s career catch rate is just a fingertip below 85%, it isn’t a huge difference. At his current rate, he’d need 59 targets for 50 catches. That’s a lot, but it’s hardly at Christian McCaffrey or James White levels (both had over 120 targets last year). By my count, there were 50 running backs who were targeted more often than Carson last year. That leaves a lot of opportunities, to be sure.
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But as the Seahawks offense is constructed, will those opportunities really be there? Schottenheimer said the offense is light-years ahead of last year. I’ll not-so-humbly note I was ahead of Schotty on this subject. A month ago I said this will be Seattle’s greatest offense ever. So yes, I’m buying what Schotty’s selling here.
Except… 50 targets is a lot in an offense that will almost certainly keep their pass attempts under 450. I absolutely believe Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and could well finish his career as the all-time best. I also unequivocally believe he’s at his best when he throws less. Actually, that’s simply a fact. His two worst seasons were 2016 and 2017, in which he threw at least 546 passes. His average number of attempts in all other seasons was just 432. Last year was his best ever, and he attempted just 427 passes.