The Seahawks have made it clear that Chris Carson will be more involved in the passing game this year. But can he really get 50 targets in the Seattle offense?
Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer made it abundantly clear that he expects to use Chris Carson much more often in the passing game this year. That makes a lot of sense, as he caught 20 of his 24 targets last year. He nabbed seven of his eight targets as a rookie, too. As Bob Condotta reported for the Seattle Times, Schottenheimer wants to bump those numbers up:
"“We need to get that number up,’’ Schottenheimer said. “Around the 50s would be a great situation for us so he’s still getting his yards on the ground and he’s still helping us in the passing game.’’"
To be clear, Schotty was asked about targets, not catches. When you consider that Carson’s career catch rate is just a fingertip below 85%, it isn’t a huge difference. At his current rate, he’d need 59 targets for 50 catches. That’s a lot, but it’s hardly at Christian McCaffrey or James White levels (both had over 120 targets last year). By my count, there were 50 running backs who were targeted more often than Carson last year. That leaves a lot of opportunities, to be sure.
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But as the Seahawks offense is constructed, will those opportunities really be there? Schottenheimer said the offense is light-years ahead of last year. I’ll not-so-humbly note I was ahead of Schotty on this subject. A month ago I said this will be Seattle’s greatest offense ever. So yes, I’m buying what Schotty’s selling here.
Except… 50 targets is a lot in an offense that will almost certainly keep their pass attempts under 450. I absolutely believe Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and could well finish his career as the all-time best. I also unequivocally believe he’s at his best when he throws less. Actually, that’s simply a fact. His two worst seasons were 2016 and 2017, in which he threw at least 546 passes. His average number of attempts in all other seasons was just 432. Last year was his best ever, and he attempted just 427 passes.
Seahawks have a lot of targets to hit before we get to the backs
Let’s say Seattle tweaks the offense enough to throw 460 times. Sure, Doug Baldwin is gone (and man does that ever stink). But due to his injuries, Angry Doug was only targeted 73 times. You can’t say the Seahawks don’t have plenty of candidates at wide receiver to take those targets and more. The preseason will certainly tell us more, but the Hawks admitted they didn’t use Jaron Brown enough last year. DK Metcalf is a lock to get his share of targets. Jazz Ferguson is blowing up so far in the preseason. Gary Jennings came around with a great week of practice after a slow start – he did miss minicamp and OTAs. David Moore is the same guy who played lights out for half the season.
Throw in the new number one receiver, Tyler Lockett, and you probably have about 250 targets for the wide receivers. Wilson has looked for his wide receivers just under 58 percent of the time in his career. Last year under Schottenheimer, the wideouts were targeted 241 times in 427 attempts, a bit over 56 percent. I believe that percentage would have been higher if Baldwin had been healthy. Still, it’s pretty close.
If Wilson throws 460 times, that’s 265 passes to the wide receivers. The tight ends will certainly get their share. Last year they saw 72 targets. Will Dissly, Nick Vannett, and either Ed Dickson (depending on his health) or Jacob Hollister will be looking for the ball just as much this year. Let’s say they get 80 targets. That brings us to 340 attempts. Hmmm…115 to go.
Except not quite. Wilson did have 427 attempts last year, but only 400 targets were credited. He does have to throw the ball away sometimes, after all. So allowing for that, a few picks, and the occasional “where the heck was that ball going” attempt, we’ll assume the Seahawks will have 440 targets out of 460 attempts. That’s about 95 percent, Wilson’s career average. And that still gives us 95 targets for the running backs.
If Carson gets 50 targets, what happens to the third-down specialist?
That may seem like far too many, but the backfield was targeted 85 times last season. Mike Davis took half of those targets with him to Chicago so there are plenty to go around. Even allowing for Travis Homer as the third-down specialist (or J.D. McKissic, or the perennial hopeful C.J. Prosise), Carson could certainly get 50 targets. The Hawks threw to Marshawn Lynch more than 40 times in three seasons, and he was nowhere near the receiver that Carson is. He did have other talents, of course.
That leaves no more than 30 targets to split between Rashaad Penny and the rest of the backfield, though. Penny has looked good coming out of the backfield, too, and the other three are all noted for their receiving skills. McKissic and Prosise are both converted wide receivers, as I’m sure you know. So could Carson get 50 targets?
I think the only way this will happen is if the Hawks don’t use a third-down specialist nearly as much as they have the past two seasons. Carson has proven he can catch the ball as well as any running back on the roster, so why take the ball out of his hands? I’m not suggesting they put him on a Shaun Alexander death march, don’t worry. Seattle needs both Carson and Penny. I believe they will be an awesome force in Seattle’s backfield, the best in the league.
But for Carson to get 50 targets, they have to use him on third down. He only got 12 percent of his touches on third or fourth down last year. Penny got a whopping two percent of his touches on third or fourth. Schotty may have some new ideas about the third-down specialist. Or miracle of miracles, maybe the Seahawks will actually throw to their backs more on first and second!