Russell Wilson is a lock to bounce back with a great game
Russell Wilson had one of his worst outings last week. That’s virtually a guarantee he’ll have a great game today against the Falcons.
Russell Wilson started the 2019 season on an absolute tear. Through the first six games, he threw 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’d completed 72 percent of his passes and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt. Both marks were the highest of his career. Unfortunately, the wheels came off against the Ravens. Rather than dwell on his poor game, let’s focus on how he’s likely to play today. Based on his history, Wilson will have a terrific game.
Before we dive into the statistics, I’ll note that Russell Wilson is still the leader in the league MVP race. Pro Football Focus has DangeRuss rated as the top quarterback at 90.1, exactly one point above Aaron Rodgers. In case you missed it, Green Bay’s future Hall of Famer is coming off a brilliant six-touchdown performance (five TD passes and one on the ground). And they still have Wilson rated as the league’s best. Rightly so, I’d say.
Here are Wilson’s overall stats, courtesy of pro-football-reference.com. You’ll see his insanely great sequence of passer ratings for 2019, beginning with 134.6 for the season opener, and never dropping below 102.6 until last week. For reference, the average passer rating for the NFL in 2018 was 92.0, and is currently 91.2. Fifteen years ago, the average league rating was just 77.3. In Wilson’s first season the average rating was 85.4. Not that anyone doubted this was a passing league, but, wow.
So, back to Russell Wilson. Even after last week’s debacle in the rain, which earned him a passer rating of 65.2, his rating for the year is 114.1, by far the best of his career. Now that we’ve laid the groundwork, let’s get to the question of the hour. How likely is he to bounce back from that performance? Very likely, based on how’s he’s played in the past. Very likely indeed.
Russell Wilson has been great after a bad game
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Here are the game logs for each of Wilson’s games throughout his career. He didn’t have the greatest start, as he lost to the Cardinals with a very mediocre performance. He barely completed over 50 percent of his 34 passes and threw for just 153 yards. He threw for a score but was also picked off once. That’s the kind of play that results in a passer rating of 62.5. A lot of 12s had to wonder if the Seahawks had made the right choice, starting the third-round draft pick over their multi-million-dollar acquisition, Matt Flynn.
Yeah, we know the answer to that one. Wilson proved it in his second game, as he completed 75 percent of his passes, threw for another score and kept the ball out of the hands of the Cowboys defense. His passer rating for game two was 112.7. Wilson would follow this pattern throughout his career. Not that he’s had many opportunities to bounce back.
His passer rating last week was 65.2, but I’ll use a rating of 80 as a marker for poor performance. That seems reasonable, as that’s five points below the league average when he started. That’s a pretty high standard, but we’re talking about Russell Wilson. Throughout his career, he’s had just 25 games with a passer rating under 80 points. That may sound like a lot, but he’s also had 62 games with a rating over 100.0.
So we have 24 bad performances to examine. We can’t count the most recent game, as we won’t know how Wilson will play until later this afternoon. That gave Wilson 24 chances to bounce back with a good game. Russell Wilson came through with a good game 20 times. By good game, I mean a rating above 80.0. 13 of those performances resulted in a passer rating over 100. I don’t know about you, but I really like those odds.
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Factor in that the Falcons pass defense is suspect at best, and Wilson’s chances look even better. Atlanta ranks 28th in yards allowed and 29th in touchdowns allowed and interceptions made. They have just five sacks and two interceptions on the year. You can expect Wilson and the Seahawks to get well today.