Seahawks shouldn’t bench Chris Carson, at least not yet
The Seahawks won their latest game despite Chris Carson, instead of because of him. That doesn’t mean it’s time to send him to the bench. Not entirely.
The best thing I can say about the performance of Chris Carson today is that he wasn’t the only Seahawks star that had a bad day. Russell Wilson made several poor throws. If he’d been on top of his game, the Hawks would have likely won by four touchdowns. Luckily, both the defense and Rashaad Penny bailed the offense out. But that doesn’t change the fact that Carson’s nemesis, the fumble, came back strong today. Is it time for Penny to take over the lead role?
I’ll argue that it’s too soon to make that call. Before you throw your phone across the room, hear me out. I’ll present your case for you, okay? So far this season, Carson has been charged with seven fumbles. In my eyes, and probably yours, he’s really had nine, as two muffed exchanges between him and Wilson were charged to the quarterback. Let’s go with seven for now, because we’ll be doing some comparisons with other official stats.
So far this season, Carson has touched the ball 239 times, including his 31 receptions. Factor in his seven fumbles and he’s turned the ball over once every 34.1 plays. Yes, that’s really bad. Before 2019 he’d fumbled just three times in 323 touches. That’s 107.7 plays per fumble, and as you might guess, that’s really good. Now’s a good time to give some historical perspective to Carson’s stats.
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I think all 12s will agree Curt Warner was a pretty good back. He wasn’t exactly Mr. Butterfingers, but Warner had his occasional problems holding onto the ball as well. As a Pro Bowl rookie for the Seahawks, he averaged 62.8 touches per fumble. In his third year that average dropped to 42.3 plays per fumble. Warner improved in the following years, but he never quite matched his performance as a rookie. For his career, Warner averaged 51.1 touches per fumble.
Shaun Alexander was far more sure-handed than Warner. Even he fumbled 31 times. But as that was in 2,402 opportunities, his average is an excellent 77.5 touches per fumble. Beastmode had even stickier hands. For his career, Marshawn Lynch fumbled 28 times in 2,728 touches for an average of 97.4 touches per fumble.
So let’s get back to Carson. Right now his ability to hang onto the ball is, well, not very good. This isn’t the first time that the prospect of benching him has come up. There’s good reason for that discussion, obviously. But taking his career as a whole, he’s averaging 61.1 touches per fumble. If you want a little more context, Walter Payton fumbled 86 times in his incredible career. As a rookie, he fumbled once every 25.4 times he touched the ball. Good thing the Bears trusted him, right? He got better at ball security, but he still finished his career with an average of 50.3 touches per fumble.
No, I’m not saying Chris Carson is Walter Payton or Curt Warner. But I am saying that when you have a demonstrable talent, you have to work with them, not just cast them aside. I’m all for giving Rashaad Penny more opportunities. I called for a dynamic duo at the beginning of the season. While he had a terrific day today, it’s inescapable that Penny has drastically underperformed this year. Today was just the third time in seven games that he averaged more than three yards per carry. I need to see the fire he showed today next week, and the next.
Next. Hawks offensive grades vs Eagles. dark
What I’d like to see is the Seahawks truly share the workload at running back, basically what I envisioned going into the season. Split the carries between Carson and Penny next week. The Vikings are pretty tough against the run, so it wouldn’t be the worst idea to keep both backs fresh. Yes, Carson has to fix this problem. But let’s not lose sight of all that he’s done for the Hawks so far. Let’s not pretend that he’s running like, well… like Eddie Lacy.