Seahawks versus Eagles: Inside the numbers week 12

The numbers going into Seahawks versus Eagles week 12 might tell us who will win.

The Seahawks are a better team than the Eagles. The two teams’ records show this and the talent on each team’s roster proves this. Seattle should beat Philadelphia in week 12 on Monday Night Football. But which team will be victorious? Statistical trends might point the way.

Third downs are going to be really important

The Seahawks have struggled for some time with third down defense. This isn’t a 2020 problem; It has been an issue for several seasons. This year, Seattle is 29th on third down conversion defense allowing teams to pick up first downs 49.6 percent of the time. That’s bad. In the last three games, Seattle is even worse at 52.6 percent.

On the flip flop, the Eagles are 7th in the NFL allowing third down conversions at just a 38.1 percent clip and only 29.6 percent in their last three games.

Offensively, Seattle picks up 41.2 percent on their third downs (18th) and the Eagles a bad 37.5 percent on the time (28th). This basically means that this game will be won or lost on first and second downs. If Seattle can pick up quick first downs, this will be a blowout. If not, the Eagles could pull off the upset.

Seahawks need to run the ball a lot in the game

The Eagles don’t give up big plays to opposing quarterbacks. In 2020, Philadelphia is 3rd in the NFL in explosive plays allowed against the pass (plays of 15 yards or more), but the Eagles are 16th in the same kind of category against the run (plays of 10 yards or more). (Seattle is 11th in explosive runs allowed and 24th in explosive passes allowed, for the record. The Eagles are 31st in explosive passes thrown, though.)

Even without running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde for most of the last several games (Hyde returned in week 11 and made a big difference), the Seahawks are 4th in explosive running plays offensively. Some of this is due to Russell Wilson breaking containment, but also Seattle has good backs.

Carson and Hyde need to get the ball a lot on Monday.

The Eagles can run and they like to run up the middle

This is going to be a huge game for Jarran Reed, Damon Harrison and Poona Ford to play well. The Eagles like to run between the tackles. If they do so successfully against the Seahawks on Monday they can control the clock. 51 percent of the time the Eagles run, it will be between the tackles. This means Seattle defensive tackles are going to need to eat blocks and either pick up tackles themselves or let the linebackers finish the tackles.

Also, as the Eagles don’t have any true deep threats in the passing game, Jamal Adams might take this opportunity to crowd the line even more. This might mean Adams finishes with 12 tackles and a few tackles for loss. If so, Seattle will win in a game that isn’t close.