On March 8th, the Seattle Seahawks made the biggest trade in franchise history. The decision to move on and trade Russell Wilson, a ten-year starter with nine Pro Bowls and the franchise’s lone Super Bowl championship, is exciting and terrifying at the same time.
Seattle decided not to be held hostage by a quarterback that used the media to passive-aggressively voice his frustrations and demands. Russ is a Seattle icon that fans will eventually remember far more for the good times and incredible success, rather than the frustrating past two years that eventually led to him in Denver.
I can respect the Seahawks for this gamble, but make no mistake, this is a gamble.
Making the case for Drew Lock as the Seahawks starting quarterback in 2022
Fans and the front office can argue about whether the team is rebuilding, or reloading. I view the trade as an opportunity. Seattle has an opportunity with this decision to get back to being great again, doing things their way.
They’ve already used two of the Broncos picks on players that will help them better control the line of scrimmage. Seattle also has the opportunity to be wrong, and fall into the dark abyss of a team in quarterback purgatory.
The most important decision in the history of the franchise was made on March 8th. The next most important decision will be who the team believes is the next franchise quarterback. If they choose wisely, they’ll be in the championship hunt by 2023. Here’s part two of a multi-part series where we make the case for the Seahawks next franchise quarterback. This week, we take a look at the other quarterback that was exchanged in the Russell Wilson trade…Drew Lock.
The talent is real
I’ll be honest, other than watching NFL RedZone every week, I wasn’t watching and studying Drew Lock the past three seasons and frankly, he wasn’t on there very much. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think he’d be in Seattle, competing for the starting quarterback job, but here we are. So I decided to go back and watch as many highlights and big moments from his collegiate career, up to now. One thing that is very apparent…the talent is very real.
During his junior and senior years at Missouri, Lock played like one of the two or three best QBs in the 2019 NFL draft. Lock threw for a combined 7,400 yards and 72 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. His junior season really put him on the map, throwing for 44 TDs and a passing efficiency rating of 165.7.
Looking at his completion percentage at only 57.8 percent, it was very apparent watching the team highlights that Lock was in a system that was all about play-action passes and deep passes, particularly over the middle.
With an extremely aggressive passing scheme and a brutal schedule in the SEC, it’s a true accomplishment that they won seven and eight games in his upperclassman years. With an electric arm, and above-average mobility, Lock can make all the throws, he just needed the right NFL team to draft him and give him a real chance to succeed. Drafted in the second round of the 2019 draft by the Denver Broncos, Lock was not put in the best position to succeed.
Things started out really well in Denver. Sitting behind former Super Bowl champion Joe Flacco for the majority of the season, Drew Lock took over the starting job in Week 13. Lock would complete 64.1% of his throws for over one thousand yards, with seven TDs to 3 INTs.
Most importantly, he led the Broncos to a 4-1 record, with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. One thing that stood out the most when watching his film was the connection he had with now Seahawks tight end Noah Fant and wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
This young trio had the look of a team that was going to be a problem for the AFC in the years to come. The future looked up for the young QB.
2020 would be a nightmare season for Lock and the Broncos. After a tough loss on the Monday night opener, it was announced that Courtland Sutton tore his ACL and would miss the season. Drew Lock would hurt his shoulder in week 2 and be out until week 6. With the Broncos at 1-3, there was early pressure on the QB and the team to turn it around quickly.
Despite raising their record to 3-4, the season would collapse and the Broncos finished 5-11. Lock, who never appeared to be 100%, would tie for the league lead in interceptions, along with the lowest completion percentage among the 35 quarterbacks eligible in the 2020 season.
With Denver head coach Vic Fangio’s job on the line in 2021, he didn’t have the time to wait on Drew Lock’s development. Instead, he signed Teddy Bridgewater, and the job was essentially his despite talk of a QB competition.
He would come in late in the season to start after Bridgewater was injured, going 0-3 with similar numbers to the 2020 season. It was clear, even with the new front office and coaching staff in Denver, that Lock’s career with the Broncos was over.
The talent and environment in Denver deteriorated for Lock from the moment he arrived. What if he and Sutton never got hurt? A poorly built offense gave way to desperation by the staff to keep their jobs. He never really had the chance to show his true skill set.
The franchise appears to believe in him
When the trade with Denver happened, most Seahawks fans were shocked that Seattle would want Drew Lock. Fans and media spent a great deal of time telling fans how bad Lock is, or how he was just a trade filler. That may be so, but so far the Seahawks appear to be fully invested in his potential.
Although Geno Smith has received positive reviews and is in the lead for the starting job currently, that hasn’t stopped players and coaches in the building from praising the quarterback. We have seen star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf come to Lock’s defense on Twitter when people were slandering the young QB. That message may be small, but it likely speaks loudly to Lock and the team that Metcalf is willing to give him a chance.
We also saw Seahawks GM John Schneider praise Lock’s athleticism and ability to make every throw before the draft, setting the tone for Seattle to pass on what appears to be a weak draft class for QBs.
Most importantly, we saw head coach Pete Carroll speak after the draft about how he views Lock as a better prospect than any of the QBs selected in this most recent draft. Carroll took a little bit of heat for those comments, which gives me reason to think he truly believes that, knowing he might get some flack.
The head coach’s praise continued this week at OTA’s as he told the media that, even with Geno having the early lead with his experience, that Lock is hanging with Geno step for step.
The head coach and executive vice president says he believes in Lock. The general manager that just traded his franchise quarterback says he believes in you. The team’s most talented offensive player says he believes in you.
Make no mistake, Drew Lock is going to get a shot at this job, and it’s because of what he can potentially bring to Seattle that Geno Smith can’t.
He raises the ceiling
The biggest reason Drew Lock can win the job in 2022, and carry the mantle into 2023, is because his ceiling as a quarterback is higher than anyone else’s on the current roster.
Apologies to Geno Smith, but his ceiling on this team is as a successful game manager that’s competing for a wildcard spot. That’s also not too far off from where his floor is either. The exact opposite could be said for Drew Lock.
There’s no better way to describe Drew Lock as anything other than a boom or bust lottery ticket, and that ticket is about to have its numbers read. Lock can sink this season for the team, which is not something I think Pete Carroll wants to do, while some fans may disagree.
Lock can also allow Seattle to play its brand of football. A power-running game mixed with having that gifted QB that’s gonna throw the ball only twenty-five times a game, but half of them are going to be explosive shots down the field.
John Schneider has always had an affinity for boom or bust type quarterbacks. He was in on Russell Wilson like few others in 2012. There was genuine interest in the possibility of trading Wilson to draft Josh Allen in 2018. Guys like Russell Wilson and Allen have always been on his radar, and Lock is no different.
The flashes and promise that Lock showed from 2018 to 2020 always have the potential to mask the struggles in 2021 & 2022. The possibility of what they could become rather than the shortcomings they appear to have.
Verdict
So does Seattle play it safe with Geno Smith, or take a shot on Drew Lock? Here’s what I believe could happen if they give the job to Lock.
Best Case Scenario
Lock plays like the talented prospect he looked like in college and in 2019. With a young and competent offensive line and a strong running game, Drew Lock wows Pete Carroll and company with his mobility and explosive-play ability. With a healthy Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Noah Fant, Lock will have the best collection of weapons he’s ever had in his life.
Lock”s ability to make all the throws on the field opens up areas that Seattle has struggled with in the past few seasons, allowing D.K. and Fant to reach their full potential. With a balanced offense helping a young defense grow, Seattle finishes 12-5 and wins the NFC West division title at home against the Rams in week 17.
As the #2 seed in the NFC, the Seahawks win two home playoff games before losing to top-seeded Tampa Bay in the NFC championship. A magical season has fans thinking Super Bowl in 2023 with all their draft capital.
Worst Case Scenario
With Drew Lock as the starting quarterback, the floor is that he’s a big-armed QB that can’t throw accurately. If Seattle puts him on the field, he’s going to fail to take care of the ball, and the Seahawks are going to go 4-13 and have a top 5 pick I’m the NFL draft.
This likely puts Seattle in position to draft on the premier QB prospects, but also pushes their competitive window farther down the road, leading to more questions about Seattle’s leadership.
Verdict
In the end, I believe that Seattle will give both Geno Smith and Drew Lock a shot at becoming the starting quarterback. Geno will get the first crack, but that job will eventually go to Lock. There’s just too much talent there, and Seattle will need to see if they can “un-Lock” it before the 2023 season when Seattle is expecting to be a contender.