Don’t quote me on this because I am not a playoff math scientist, but I think we have a pretty clear picture of what the Seattle Seahawks must do in their final three games to make it into the postseason. If they sweep all three games, they are in, probably as the third seed.
If they win two of the final three and one of them comes against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18, they are in as either the third or fourth seed. Any other scenario and they are almost certainly out.
That means this Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings may not matter very much. Vegas would say that Seattle doesn’t have a very good chance of winning in Minneapolis, but should beat the tumbling Chicago Bears next week. That would set an all-or-nothing game in LA to close the regular season.
Losing to the Vikings only means that the Hawks would have to beat the Bears next week in order for that final game to be meaningful. Of course, this is subject to change should the Rams to the Jets or the Cardinals, but let’s assume they will win those games.
Three bold predictions for the Seahawks versus the Vikings in Week 16
In a sense, that more or less reduces the pressure of what should be a very tough game this Sunday. Minnesota has had an excellent season and now is fighting for playoff positioning at the top of the NFC. They will be ready come Sunday. Will Seattle?
Based on last week’s debacle against Green Bay, that is a major question. I have learned that predicting how a team will play week to week is a lot harder when said team has an entirely new staff of mostly untested coaches. Mike Macdonald’s squad has been riding a seesaw this year and I don’t think anyone knows what to expect against the Vikings.
And that just makes bold predictions bigger and bolder than ever.
Last week, I narrowly missed on two things. I predicted hundred-yard games for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Jacobs, and Packers’ return man Keisean Nixon. None of them got there, but they missed by a combined 25 yards. So close. And the Seahawks' defense didn’t score like I thought they would, but they did set up a score on a turnover that I did predict – a Josh Jacobs fumble. Close again.
This week, I admit I have no idea what kind of team MacDonald will send onto the field. But I do have a pretty clear image of how the Vikes will play. With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for this Sunday’s matchup.
The teams will combine for at least ten sacks
The two teams are combining for just over five sacks per game, but I see a lot of reasons to expect that number to shoot up. For starters, neither team protects their quarterback very well. Together, they are yielding almost seven sacks a game. That still doesn’t get you to ten, but there’s more.
Seattle can’t run the ball. I expect they’ll try and will have limited success early. Most importantly, I think Minnesota will score early, and the Hawks will abandon the run too soon. That will leave Geno Smith and the shaky offensive line at the mercy of Brian Flores’ blitzers.
On the other side, Sam Darnold will try to get the ball downfield. That will give Seattle’s pass rushers time to get to him. The Vikings have basically been willing to surrender the occasional sack if it leads to more successful deep shots.
MacDonald and Aden Durde have a pick-your-poison decision to make. Sit back and let Darnold and his very talented receivers eat you alive. Or come after Darnold and hope you create enough mistakes to counteract the big plays the Vikings offense will make. I think there’s a good chance the Hawks opt for the latter.
There will be at least three pass plays of more than fifty yards
This goes hand in hand with prediction number one. If both teams are blitzing, there will be room for both teams to strike deep. Justin Jefferson and D.K. Metcalf are elite deep threats. Darnold will hit Jefferson on a splash play. If he gets time, Geno Smith can do the same with Metcalf.
Then there are the other options. Jordan Addison and Tyler Lockett can burn secondaries when they pay too much attention to the top receiver. The inexplicable disappearance of Lockett from the Seahawks passing attack could end this week. Until his one 22-yard catch against the Packers, the vet had not topped 20 yards in six out of seven games. I am hoping that one catch on Sunday might have jarred something loose in the collective offense’s mind. Lockett can stretch a defense.
JSN or a running back could take a short throw and turn it into a big gain, and at least three other pass catchers on Minnesota are capable of doing the same, so I think this will be a game of big plays – both on offense and on defense.
Geno Smith will lead the Seahawks in rushing
This is not a good thing. Geno has only led the team in rushing twice this season. Both were losses. It has become obvious that the Seahawks cannot run the ball. If things don’t go exactly according to schedule, they have essentially given up trying. They rank in the bottom five in the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Are the other four teams at the bottom? The Jets, Raiders, Browns, and Bengals. Notice anything? The others all have losing records.
Meanwhile, the Vikings give up a paltry 3.9 yards-per-rush, tied for second in the NFL. They are especially good at crashing the line and dropping ball carriers for losses. You can run on them, but you have to be patient, and I just don’t see that happening on Sunday.
So Seattle will try to run, and then will abandon it when it doesn’t work and they fall behind. But Geno will run. Not on scripted plays. That has never been very effective. The Vikings blitz a lot. They will get to him, as mentioned above. They just won’t get to him all the time. Geno will take off a few times and bust a couple of big runs. That’s all it will take to make him the leading rusher in a game like this.
I don’t see a lot of ways that Seattle leaves Minneapolis with a victory. But, given the playoff scenario I sketched out above, that may not be essential this week. They just have to play better. They have to regain the swagger they were developing while marching through the NFC West. There are no more freebies after this week.