The Seattle Seahawks are out of the playoffs even if they beat the Rams. That doesn't mean this isn't an important game. A win Sunday would snap a three-game losing streak to their division rivals and set the tone for next season. To win, Seattle will need to correct these three problems.
The Hawks have been maddeningly inconsistent this year. The defense started off great, then got carved up for three straight weeks. They turned in a solid performance against the Falcons in Week 7, then collapsed against the Bills. We saw major improvement versus the Rams, even if they came unglued in overtime.
The bye week seemed to cure all those ills. "Seemed to" is the operative phrase here, as once Seattle played the league's better teams, the defense wasn't nearly as good as we thought. But they were still much, much better than the offense. If you thought the defense had issues...yikes. If you're looking for problems on this team, the offense is the place to go. And you don't exactly have to do much digging to uncover the issues, either.
The Seattle Seahawks offense has three major problems
Geno Smith needs to be focused
The Seahawks quarterback has been very, very good this season. Hear me out, doubters and haters. He's third in the league in pass completions and attempts, and second in passing yards. Smith is also fourth in completion percentage. So I'm not sure where all this nonsense about him not being an NFL-caliber quarterback comes from.
Oh, except that at other times, Geno Smith has been very, very bad this season. Despite all the completions, he's only thrown for 17 touchdowns. That's tied for 19th in the league. At 3.1 percent, his TD percentage is even worse, just 30th in the NFL. Lamar Jackson leads the league at 8.8 percent, nearly triple what Smith has done this year.
The scoring isn't great, but it's those damned interceptions that have snuffed out too many Seahawks drives this season. His 15 picks are tied for second-worst in the league. As he throws so many passes, at least the percentage isn't hideous. At 2.7 percent, Smith ranks the 11th-worst overall. Still, when you've only thrown two more TDs than picks, your game isn't right.
Those interceptions have often come a the worst possible times, too. He leads the league in red zone picks with four. It certainly doesn't help that at times, he holds onto the ball much longer than he should. Whether it's a case of him losing focus or receivers not running their routes, ultimately Smith has to shoulder the bulk of the blame. To his credit, that's exactly what he's done, every time. For the Hawks to beat the Rams, he has to eliminate those costly errors, every time down the field.
Ryan Grubb needs to make adjustments...
Hiring former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was a bold move by the Seahawks. Most in the media considered it a great move. After all, the man had 11 years of experience at the position, and another eight years as an offensive line coach. And where did Seattle need help more than any other position? That's right, the offense, and the offensive line.
As it's turning out, there's a key piece of information I left out. Grubb didn't come from the Washington Commanders but from the Washington Huskies. He'd been a coach for 21 years but hadn't coached for a single snap in the NFL. As I wrote when the Hawks announced the hire, it's pretty unusual to bring a guy in with zero experience in the pro game. Oh, I liked the hire, to be sure.
But here's the thing, 12s. The idea was that Grubb's innovative style would elevate the Seahawks offensive game. Yes, the offense looks different, but when things stop working, the Hawks don't make the adjustments needed. The 6-3 slog over the Bears is just the latest example. Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh combined for 53 yards rushing on the first series. Finally, Seattle has a running game again.
Except that for the rest of the game, they didn't. The Hawks got just 34 more yards on the ground for the rest of the half, then only 16 in the second half. They averaged 6.7 yards per carry in the first half, then crashed to 1.8 in the second. The Bears adjusted, while Grubb did not. Tyler Lockett made the rare move of publicly complaining about a lack of adjustments three seasons ago. The quarterback and head coach disagreed with his assessment. Well, they're both gone, aren't they?
... and Grubb must call a better game at the beginning, too
It isn't just the fact that Grubb isn't adjusting the Hawks game plan as needed. It's that for all of his creative wizardry in the college game, we're just not seeing much innovation on the Seahawks. As Geno Smith said after the Week 17 win, “We’re confident. We have DK Metcalf. We have Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant, running backs out the wazoo. We got guys. That’s what gives us confidence. Our coaching staff is spectacular. They put us in position to make plays."
Smith went on to make his now famous "sunshine and rainbows" comment. He's right, we shouldn't expect an offensive fireworks display every game. The problem, is Smith is also right about his teammates. The Hawks do have great skill players. The coaching staff, that I'm not so sure about. Seattle ranks 14th in yards gained, and just 19th in points scored.
You'd think an innovative offensive coordinator would maximize their scoring. The Seahawks are one of the least efficient teams in the league in that aspect. The Bills rank seventh in yardage, but lead the league in scoring. Virtually all of the teams that have locked in a playoff berth show a close relationship between yardage and points scored. The Lions are third in yardage and second in points. The Ravens are first in yards and third in points. You get the picture.
Seattle ranks 20th in offensive DVOA, per Dave Schatz's ftnfantasy.com (subscription required for all the really good stuff). DVOA is a pretty sweet bit of mathiness. It stands for Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average. In a nutshell, it compares the outcome of every single play to the league average of that same down and distance. Simple once opened, like a pecan shell, but hard to crack initially, like a Brazil nut. Anyway, the Hawks are bad when measured by that advanced metric, too.
When your offensive guru's play-calling results in five field goals in your team's 16 opening drives, things aren't exactly clicking. True, Smith threw interceptions on two series, but nine punts out of 16 series doesn't scream innovation or success to anyone.