3 bold predictions for Seahawks' Week 14 game versus Cardinals

There’s a classic Peanuts cartoon where the profoundly street-smart Peppermint Patty explains her strategy in taking True/False tests in school. That strategy has absolutely nothing to do with reading or thinking about the question. It is all about pattern recognition. Tests always start with a “true,” and the pattern develops from there. When she has to explain why she got every single question wrong on her latest test, the answer is easy. “I trued when I should have falsed.”

I am confronted with a similar challenge in predicting what will happen in this week’s rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Last week’s predictions were tepid at best. I did get the A.J. Barner touchdown right, but I thought it would come in the context of a bigger game. I called for five combined turnovers. There were four. And I said Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t finish the game. Fortunately for Hawks fans, I got that wrong because Rodgers’ poor play is one of the main reasons Seattle was able to prevail.

They also prevailed because Leonard Williams, who I predicted would have a monster game one week earlier, made us wait an extra week to show why he is Seattle’s best player. Or, to put it another way – because I trued when I should have falsed.

Bold predictions for the Seattle Seahawks versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14

For this week, we have two teams who played just two weeks ago. I got one of my bold predictions for that game right. I predicted that the Seahawks would shut down James Conner but struggle to stop Trey McBride. But I misread the game script badly, figuring both teams would put up a lot of points. They did not.

So now I have to decide whether to play the same hunch that led to that misread two weeks ago or go with the trend. After all, both coaching staffs are bound to make adjustments designed to generate more offense. They know better what to expect this week. And football is a fluky game, where a crazy bounce or two can radically alter an outcome.

If you know any gamblers, you can confirm what I am about to say. Gamblers who play trends live in nice houses with fancy cars and well-groomed kids. Gamblers who play hunches – well, just reverse all that. Trends don’t always pay off. But they hit more often than they miss. That’s why they are trends.

It is far more common in the NFL for the second game in a two-game series to closely mirror the first than it is for the second game to spin off in a substantially different direction. Player availability is the most common factor that could alter an outcome. That’s why Miami scored 19 more points against New England this season the second time the teams played. Tua Tagovailoa did not play in the first game. He did in the second.

There are a few concerning notes on the Hawks’ injury report this week, but I am going to assume they will be at or near full strength come game time. The only significant roster change on either side is the appearance of Cardinals’ rookie Darius Robinson, who made his debut last week in Arizona’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

One day, Robinson could develop into a formidable pass rusher, but in his debut, average NFL linemen like Cam Robinson and Blake Brandel handled him easily. I suspect he may play a little better and a little more this week, but I do not expect Darius Robinson to make much of a difference.

But even if I am predicting a similar type of game to the one a couple of weeks ago, I still have some new and exciting bold predictions for you. Beginning with …

Both D.K. Metcalf and Marvin Harrison, Jr. will be targeted at least ten times

Two weeks ago, the two receivers were targeted a combined eleven times. Metcalf, who has missed some time with injury, hasn’t seen double-digit targets since the first 49er game in early October. Harrison did get 12 targets in last week’s Vikings loss, but it was only the second time he has hit double figures in his rookie season. For the season, the Hawks and Cards are a combined 1-4 in games in which their two star wideouts record double-digit targets.

So why would they even try to force-feed Metcalf and Harrison? Both teams are coached by defensive-minded guys who want to run the ball. I fully expect that they will try to run on Sunday. The problem is they weren’t able to move the ball on the ground two weeks ago, and they will not be able to do it this Sunday. Both teams are in need of big plays to jump start tepid offenses.

Metcalf and Harrison are the best chances the two teams have for making big plays. Geno Smith and Kyler Murray will often go to them on slants and shorter outs and then take several shots to each if the safeties creep forward. I’m not predicting great success with this strategy as both teams have enough secondary talent to hold up, but I think there will be a concerted effort to stretch the field.

Both quarterbacks will run for a touchdown

Kyler Murray doesn’t run nearly as much as he did during his first few years in the league. But he is still dangerous. Geno Smith runs even less, but he has shown the ability to make a big play with his legs when necessary. Since I don’t think any running back on either side will have a big day – they certainly didn’t two weeks ago – I think both QBs will take it upon themselves to make plays on third down and in the red zone.

Combined, Smith and Murray have run for six touchdowns in 24 games. If I’m doing my math right, that means that one of them should run for a half-touchdown this week. Now, since there is no such thing as a half touchdown, I’m going to do something I told you never to do just a few minutes ago.

I’m going with a hunch. I think both QBs run for a score, and if that isn’t quite bold enough for you, I’ll go even further and say that one will be a short run of a couple of yards while the other will be more than ten yards. No promises as to which QB does which run.

The final score will be…

Did you know that the NFL has averaged exactly one tie per season over the last nine years? Did you further know that there was not a tie in 2023, nor has there been one yet this year? I’d say we are past due for a tie. And I figure that two division rivals who know each other inside out and who played a very tight game just two weeks ago are the ideal candidates for a tie game this week.

As if that weren’t bold enough, I’m going to give you a score. It is a score that has only occurred one time in league history – 96 years ago. The Detroit Wolverines staged a stunning fourth quarter rally to tie the New York Giants at the Polo Grounds, 19-19. I’m sure you remember it. It’s the game where the Giants Hinkey Haines took a punt back 70 yards only to have Detroit’s Tiny Feather tie the game with a four-yard run, making it the only game in NFL history in which players named Hinkey and Tiny scored touchdowns.

Of course, predicting a tie is a low-percentage play. But do you remember how many times the Hawks have played throughout their history? Only one. And who did it come against? These same Arizona Cardinals. It was eight years ago. Both kickers – Seattle’s Stephen Hauschka and Arizona’s Chandler Catanzaro - missed game-winning field goals in overtime. The kicks were 27 and 24 yards. Tell me weird stuff doesn’t happen when these teams get together in Glendale.

More Seahawks news and analysis: