On Tuesday, we looked at the disturbing recent performance of the Seattle Seahawks with a particular emphasis on assistant coaches. It was not a pretty picture. Unfortunately, it only told half the story. Today, we look at the other half.
Warning: if your heart bleeds action green if you remember every one of the touchdowns Jim Zorn threw in 1976 (there weren’t that many), or if you were one of the eleven fans at Sunday’s game who actually appeared to be rooting for the Hawks, you might want to look away. What follows has tear-your-hair-out potential.
Mike Macdonald swept the coaching floor clean when he took over the Seattle’s coach last winter. No surprise there. It's S.O.P. for a new coach. He wants his own guys. Doesn’t need holdovers who may be wedded to the old way of doing things. Macdonald, along with general manager John Schneider, brought in an entirely new roster of coaches at the coordinator, position coach, and assistant levels.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald might have made the wrong hiring decisions
We won’t try to evaluate every move. As I wrote previously, outsiders can only go so far in analyzing how good or bad a job position coaches are doing. They are layered in beneath the head coach and various coordinators. Still, some conclusions are unavoidable.
Let’s start with some good news. Since I criticized new quarterbacks coach Charles London a few days ago, it’s only fair to point out that the coaches he replaced – ’23’s QB coach Greg Olson and assistant QB coach Kerry Joseph – have fared no better in 2024.
Olson, to the best of my knowledge, has not taken another job in the pro ranks, which might leave him in a better position than Joseph, who was hired by Chicago to shepherd top draft pick Caleb Williams through his rookie season. As such, he has had a front-row seat to the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season. I am under the impression that those in the know do not fault Joseph for Williams' poor performance, but even so, his 2024 season doesn’t exactly make Hawks’ fans regret his departure.
I’m not sure we can say the same for some of the other coaches involved in Seattle’s passing offense.
Jake Peetz certainly had the right resume when he was hired as the Seahawks' new passing game coordinator this offseason. He had worked his way up as a position coach over the past decade before going to LSU as offensive coordinator. He spent the last two seasons serving under Sean McVay in Los Angeles. He held the title of passing game specialist last year, which is a step down from coordinator.
Peetz essentially took the job that two Hawks assistants had been performing in 2023. He was a direct replacement for the passing game coordinator Sanjay Lal. Sr. offensive assistant Nate Carroll also helped out with wide receivers and the overall passing game in 2023.
Under Peetz, the Seahawks have maintained a decent passing attack, but by almost every metric, it has regressed from where it was last season. Since there are so many ways to evaluate a team’s passing offense, I’m going to rely on one broad measure. Pro Football Reference calculates various “expected points” (EXP) figures for each team. One of their EXPs is focused exclusively on the passing attack.
In 2023, under OC Shane Waldron and PGC Sanjay Lal, Seattle had a passing EXP of 88.74. Through 14 games this year, with mostly the same skill players, Ryan Grubb and Peetz have achieved a passing EXP of 48.12. This is a cumulative figure, so we should pro-rate the ’24 number. Plotted out over 17 games, the passing EXP lands at 58.43.
So, let’s recap: In 2023 when everyone thought the Seahawks' passing game needed improvement, they were at 88.74. This year, unless they blow up in the final three games, they will finish with 58.43. That is basically regressing by about a third. Of course, no number is perfect, and there are a lot of factors that go into assessing success or failure. But it’s hard to look at Seattle's offense this year and say that the passing game has improved. By almost any metric, it is worse than in 2023.
Sanjay Lal took a backward step and is now coaching receivers for the Chargers. The Chargers passing EXP is projected to go from 40.68 in ’23 to over 60 this year. That is true despite swapping out Keenan Allen for rookie Ladd McConkey. The rest of their roster is largely the same. They also lost an excellent receiving back in Austin Ekeler, but their passing production, as measured by EXP, has gone up approximately 50 percent.
Meanwhile, in Carolina, where Nate Carroll landed as passing game coordinator, things still don’t look especially good. But they look a whole lot better than they did before Carroll arrived. In 2023, quarterback Bryce Young appeared to be a lost cause. He didn’t have many weapons to throw to and his offensive line was porous.
That is mostly still the case in Charlotte, but somehow, the Panthers and their beleaguered QB are showing signs of life. Their passing EXP is still among the worst in the league. It is far behind the Seahawks. But in terms of trends, it is going in the right direction. Carolina’s projected -46.41 EXP represents a 60 percent improvement from last season.
Head coach Dave Canales may have more to with that than Carroll, but there’s no denying that the former Seahawks coach has been involved in a reclamation of Bryce Young this season.
There was no way Nate Carroll – son of fired head coach Pete Carroll - was going to stay in Seattle. And looking back, the switch from Lal to Peetz made all the sense in the world. But the results simply have not been there. Seattle had a decent supply of talent over the past few seasons, and everyone recognized they needed some fresh ideas in the post-Russell Wilson era.
But perhaps Macdonald could have done a better job in finding those new voices. There is still time to rectify things, but as of today, it is looking like some of those old voices might have been better after all.