With two weeks to go in the 2025 regular season for the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC playoffs remain a veritable Rubik’s Cube. The teams are mostly decided. But the seedings are still subject to massive changes.
Five of the seven playoff teams are set, and realistically, a sixth is a virtual lock. That is Green Bay, though the Packers do find themselves in a curious spot. They will almost certainly qualify as the final Wild Card team and the seventh seed.
But they have equally small chances of winning their division and moving up to the three seed, or missing the playoffs altogether. I’m putting them in as the seventh seed for now.
The real drama comes in the South, where Carolina and Tampa are battling it out. If Tampa beats Miami this week, the division will come down to a Week 18 showdown between the two. Even if Tampa loses, that final game could still matter if Carolina can’t beat Seattle this weekend. Either way, the South division winner will go in as the four seed.
What is Seattle’s most likely path in the 2025 playoffs?
For the Seahawks, it’s simple. Beat Carolina and San Francisco and secure the top seed and a first-round bye. If Seattle loses either game, it opens up a floodgate of possibilities, and it becomes far more likely that Seattle goes into the playoffs as either the fifth or sixth seed.
Let’s look at likely opponents in both cases.
If Seattle wins out, they will get a bye in the Wild Card round and then host a divisional round game against the lowest remaining seed. By my non-computer-generated analysis, that is most likely to be Green Bay. I give the Packers a very good chance of going on the road and defeating either Chicago or Philadelphia in the Wild Card round.
If Green Bay loses, Seattle almost certainly will host either Los Angeles or San Francisco in the divisional round. I don’t see any way both NFC West rivals lose in the Wild Card round.
After that, I think there is a pretty good chance that the Seahawks take on either LA or SF in the conference championship.
If, on the other hand, Seattle goes in as a Wild Card, they will travel to Carolina, Tampa, or Philadelphia. (There’s a slight chance they could go to any of the other playoff teams in the first round, but these are the most probable.)
If they get past the Wild Card round, they are looking at a trip to Chicago or to whichever NFC West team ends up winning the division. Then, they have virtually the same likely opponents should they advance to the conference finals. All those games would be on the road.
There are obviously major benefits should Seattle win out. Having the first-round bye is a significant advantage and playing every game at home could be pivotal. But there are few things to keep in mind.
As of now, Seattle is relatively healthy. Having a bye does make it more likely that Charles Cross and Coby Bryant will be ready for the first playoff game, but barring any setbacks in the final two weeks, Seattle may not need the recovery time as much as other teams would. And there are times when taking a week off late in the season can actually cause problems.
In the past four years, teams with a first-round bye have gone just 5-3 in their divisional game. That includes the Detroit Lions, who lost as the top seed last year.
What’s more, though Lumen Field is a difficult environment for visitors, the Seahawks have a better record on the road than at home this year. That by no means suggests they would not prefer to be at home in the playoffs. It just means that they should not fear going on the road.
Finally, though not certain, if Seattle does not win the division, likely, they would likely not have to play Los Angeles or San Francisco in the Wild Card round. If they make it far enough, they almost certainly will run into one of those rivals, but getting a win on the road against a team like Philadelphia or Tampa isn’t such a bad way to go into that type of showdown.
The path is definitely easier as the conference’s top seed. You only have to win two games, and you play at home. But if Seattle doesn’t close out the regular season with two more wins, there’s no cause for concern. This team shouldn’t fear anyone in its way. If they play well, Seattle can beat them all, regardless of the setting.