Fairytale of Drew Lock: Why Seattle Seahawks shouldn't think of making QB change yet

Some 12s appear to prefer the backup quarterback to the current QB1.
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12s certainly have their opinions, and they have a right to those opinions. To be sure, I prefer a bunch of statistical evidence to back up certain opinions, though. Simply saying the Seattle Seahawks should replace Geno Smith with Drew Lock because Lock is better is not good enough. There is no statistical evidence for that.

I have also seen arguments that Lock hasn't had a chance to prove he is better than Geno Smith because Seattle hasn't given Lock the same chance to play as Smith. To make that argument takes a lot of arrogance. That implies a fan knows more about running a professional football team than do the Seahawks coaches.

The coaches see how the players do for months and how they play within the offensive system. Head coach Pete Carroll has been pretty successful since he came to coach the team in 2010 as well, so maybe let's give him the benefit of the doubt. Unless there are fans who think they could have done better than Carroll since 2010 and that is just silly.

And while Geno Smith is certainly not Kansas City Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the same argument that Drew Lock hasn't had a chance to prove he should be the starter could apply to Patrick Mahomes' backup in KC, right? We can assume Mahomes is better than the backup, but as fans, we do not know that. We just have to trust the coaches, just as 12s should trust Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

Why Geno Smith still needs to be QB for the Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith, though, has had too many turnovers this year. He has thrown 7 interceptions - still less than Josh Allen and Mahomes - and Smith's interception percentage (2.3) is better than Mahomes (2.4). Smith is also tied for second in game-winning drives (Smith has three in 2023) this year. So while Smith does have too many turnovers, he also has played great in some of the biggest moments of the game. That includes going 9 for 10 on Seattle's final two drives against the Washington Commanders in Week 10.

Including starting three games for the Seahawks in 2021, Smith has a touchdown per pass percentage of 4.7. His interception rate is 2.0. I know some fans like to point out how Geno Smith did with the New York Jets but that was seven years ago. That's not relative now.

In Drew Lock's career, where he started 21 games for the Denver Broncos and has thrown six passes for the Seahawks, his touchdown percentage is 3.5 and his interception percentage is 2.8. Lock led the league in interceptions with 15 in 2020. And while the Broncos offense was not good during the time Lock was there (the same 12s that want Lock to be QB1 for Seattle would place none of the blame for the Broncos offense on Lock the quarterback, most likely), Lock still was sacked just 4.4 percent of the time compared to Smith's sack percentage of 7.5 with Seattle so the offensive line wasn't more of an issue with Denver than it was with Seattle.

That is part of Geno Smith's problem this season. His offensive line has been extremely banged up and has had multiple changes because of the injuries. Offensive lines need cohesion to be great. Expecting backup Drew Lock to come in and do better than Smith with as porous of blocking seems illogical. Plus, as Seattle had Lock roll out a ton in his short Week 4 stint it would seem as if the Seahawks do not trust Lock to drop back and go through progressions but instead want him to move around and try to make plays which ultimately limits the versatility of offensive play-calls.

Lock did go 2 for 6 against New York for 63 yards. I have seen some fans say that Geno Smith's 369 yards against the Commanders were a bit of a lie because of the explosive play after a short pass by Kenneth Walker. It should be noted that 51 of Lock's 63 yards came on one play after a short pass to tight end Noah Fant.

Do I think Geno Smith is the best quarterback in the league? No, definitely not. There are several quarterbacks I would take over him - Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, and so on. But I would not choose Drew Lock over Geno Smith, though if Lock were forced into action due to a Smith injury I would hope Lock would be great. I just cannot assume he would be great and there is no history in the NFL for Lock to provide evidence of that expectation.

Geno Smith is not the long-term answer at quarterback for Seattle as he is 33 years old and Seattle needs to get younger at the position to match most of the rest of the roster. But Drew Lock isn't the answer either.

And before I get comments like, "Why is this even a question about who should be QB1?" just look at other comments on the page. Lots of 12s feel vehemently that Drew Lock should take over. Though, to be fair, maybe they are just bots.

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