The Seattle Seahawks came out fighting in Week 13 against a good Dallas Cowboys team that had won each home game by at least 20 points in 2023. Though Seattle played hard, they still lost 41-35. The team is now 6-6 with two extraordinarily tough games in the next two weeks.
Seattle might be 6-8 before the schedule begins to ease a bit. Still, the Seahawks still have to play a Pittsburgh Steelers team with a very good defense. Should Seattle lose that game, the best Seattle could hope for might be 8-9 and that would mean missing the playoffs.
This would be unacceptable for a team that surprisingly made the playoffs in 2022 and was expected to be more talented in 2023, and, therefore, better. That is not the case so far. And general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll need to already be looking at some tough roster in the 2024 offseason.
Seattle Seahawks should not bring back quarterback Drew Lock
The Seahawks might need two new quarterbacks, or maybe they take a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and let that quarterback sit behind Geno Smith for a year. Financially, Seattle releasing Smith after 2023 makes sense, but it makes more sense to replace him after 2024. Smith would save almost $14 million by cutting Smith before 2024 but they would save $25 million before 2025. Smith starting as QB1 in 2024 would seem assured.
But who should back up Smith? It certainly should not be Drew Lock. Lock is only signed for this season and in limited time in two games he has been pretty bad. He is 4 of 12 for 66 yards (51 of which came after a short four-yard pass to Noah Fant that Fant turned into a 51-yard gain) with zero touchdowns and 1 interception. His quarterback rating is an incredibly low 18.1. Smith might be a mediocre quarterback in 2023, but there is nothing that we have seen from Lock in his career to suggest he is capable of being close to a long-term QB1.
I know there is a common argument that Lock came in cold off the bench in two games and that is why his numbers are so bad. This is simply an excuse, however, but not a good one. Backup quarterbacks in the NFL are still expected to produce even if they come in cold. I hope that Lock finds a team in the NFL and somehow becomes a decent backup, but the Seahawks need to stick with Smith for at least another year while drafting his replacement. The rookie quarterback in 2024 simply pushes Lock out of a job.
Seattle should not welcome back wide receiver Tyler Lockett
Who doesn't love Tyler Lockett? He has been a great football player and he will always be a fantastic human being and that is, of course, more important. While not bringing Lockett back in 2024 would be an extremely tough decision because he is such a good guy to have in the locker room, he will also be 32 years old early in the season and for a player who relies on quickness and speed to get open, that age is getting long in the tooth.
Lockett has never been a physical receiver, but this year he seems to laying off a bit more in fighting for balls. This was true against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13 when Smith targeted Lockett but Cowboys corner DaRon Bland undercut the pass and simply outmuscled Lockett for the ball. Four of Lockett's targets this year have resulted in interceptions and three of them were simply a defensive back not being afraid of Lockett outfighting him for the ball.
Lockett's catch rate in 2023 (67.8) is his lowest since 2017. His average yards per catch (10.5) is tied for his career low and his yards per target (7.1) is nearly a yard lower than in any previous season. Lockett is also off pace to have another 1,000-yard receiving season which would be his first under 1,000 yards since 2018. He also had an atrocious drop - the ball him in the helmet - late in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys on a drive that could have resulted in a game-winning score for Seattle.
The biggest problem for the Seahawks when it comes to Lockett is that his cap hit goes from $11,060,000 this year to $26,795,000 in each of the next two seasons. Seattle would save $7 million by releasing him before 2024. Jaxon Smith-Njigba could simply slip into Lockett's spot. Again, I do not want Tyler Lockett to ever stop being a Seahawk, but he is also helping the team less in 2023.
Seahawks should shut the door on center Evan Brown
Brown was only signed to a one-year deal last offseason and the Seahawks likely have his replacement already on the roster in rookie Olu Oluwatimi. Oluwatimi, albeit in far fewer snaps, actually is graded higher by Pro Football Focus (paywall alert) overall than Brown through Week 13. His pass-block grade is a very good (80.8) and his run-block grade is about equal to Brown's.
Brown started 2023 fairly well. Through two games, he had not allowed a quarterback pressure or a QB hit. Between Weeks 2 and 12, though, Brown allowed at least 2 pressures in every game but one. He allowed 4 in Seattle's loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9 and 3 against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12. He also allowed 2 sacks in the 49ers game. Admittedly, Brown had his best game in weeks against the Cowboys, but for most of the season, he has been bad.
Brown was not an expensive signing and he is a free agent in 2024. Not bringing him back does not save the Seahawks that much money, but Oluwatimi in for Brown likely improves the team long-term. In fact, should Seattle lose their next two games and sit at 6-8, there is no real reason to not simply go ahead and replace a struggling Brown with the rookie from Michigan.
Seattle should cut their losses with defensive tackle Dre'Mont Jones
General manager John Schneider does not usually make splash signings during free agency but he did this past offseason when he signed Jones to the most expensive free agent contract the Seahawks have offered since Schneider and Pete Carroll started running the on-field product of Seattle football in 2010. Unfortunately, Jones might be a good example of why Schneider doesn't offer such contracts.
Jones is currently trending toward having his lowest sack total since 2019 and his fewest run stuffs since 2020. He is not a bad player, but he is also graded as number 71 among interior defensive linemen in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus. He is the worst-graded IDL among all Seahawks.
His cap hit jumps from $10,056,666 in 2023 to $18,176,666 in 2024 and up to $23,176,668 in 2025. Seattle could save almost $5 million next year by releasing Jones, and would save $16.5 million by cutting Jones ahead of 2025. The savings from releasing Jones next offseason could go toward re-signing Leonard Williams who has been excellent since coming over in a trade from the New York Giants in midseason.
The issue Seattle has, though, is they do not appear to have a true young replacement for Jones. Mike Morris might be fine, but he has also been hurt in 2023 and experience-wise would be a rookie again in 2024. Still, Jones has not yet earned his contract and there is no indication he would somehow be better next year.